KYRGYZ AND PAKISTANI AMBASSADORS ON RECENT SCO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TASHKENT 001950

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2017
TAGS: PREL AORC PGOV PK KG UZ
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ AND PAKISTANI AMBASSADORS ON RECENT SCO
SUMMIT IN TASHKENT

Classified By: Poloffs R. Fitzmaurice and T. Buckley for reasons 1.4 (B
, D)


1. (C) Summary. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
conducted its sixth annual meeting of Prime Ministers in
Tashkent on November 2. The Ambassador visited his Pakistani
and Kyrgyz counterparts this week to get a readout of the
proceedings. Pakistan, which has observer status, is an
aspiring member and described potential economic and security
benefits of SCO membership, including raising its
international profile in the fight against terrorism. The
Pakistani Ambassador also highlighted his country's deepening
trade ties with Uzbekistan and lamented Pakistan's
deteriorating domestic political situation. The Pakistani
Ambassador described difficulty in effectively operating the
Embassy in Tashkent and communicating with Islamabad. The
Kyrgyz Ambassador described a robust schedule of SCO
activities, including major transportation projects that
would link China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. He noted the
atmosphere within the SCO is positive and productive and
there are no current plans to expand membership. The Kyrgyz
Ambassador also noted President Karimov's absence at the SCO
summit and said the GOU offered no explanation about his
schedule, which indicates possible internal indecision within
the Apparat. The SCO seems to be gaining in stature in the
region and conducting more substantive meetings on security
and economic development, and rivalries between Russia and
China are downplayed since they both feel they can exert
influence on their own agenda items. End summary.

BACKGROUND
--------------


2. (C) On November 2, Tashkent hosted the sixth meeting of
Prime Ministers of the SCO member states. Currently, Russia,
China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan are
members of the SCO, while Mongolia, Iran, Pakistan, and India
have observer status. Afghanistan was also invited to the
summit as a "guest," but lacks official observer status.
Turkmenistan is not a member nor does it have observer status
(apparently by its own choice); Turkmen representatives were
also invited as guests, but reportedly chose not to attend.

PAKISTAN STILL ONLY AN SCO OBSERVER...
--------------


3. (C) The Ambassador met on November 7 with Pakistani
Ambassador H.E. Sajjad Kamran for a readout of the SCO
summit, which was attended by Kamran and Pakistan Foreign
Minister Khurshid Kasuri. Given Pakistan's lack of SCO
membership status (Pakistan has been a SCO observer since
2005),Kamran and Kasuri were unable to attend the initial
closed-door sessions and they did not know what was discussed
there. They attended a later plenary session where each of
the member states and observers (and Afghanistan) read from
prepared statements of approximately four minutes-length.
The open-door session was then followed by a press conference
and the signing of official documents.

...BUT SEEKS EVENTUAL SCO MEMBERSHIP
--------------


4. (C) Ambassador Kamran provided the Ambassador with a copy
of Kasuri's statement from the SCO meeting, reiterating
Pakistan's desire to become a full SCO member. According to
the statement, the SCO plays an important role in forging
cooperation between member states in the struggle against
international terrorism and extremism. It further praises
the strides that the SCO has taken in forging closer economic
ties between members, in particular noting the creation of
SCO's Business Council and Inter-Bank Consortium. The
statement also recognizes the important role the SCO could
play in harmonizing relations between energy producers,
consumers, and transit states.

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5. (C) According to Kamran, Pakistan seeks eventual
membership in the SCO for two major reasons: (a) Pakistan has
been a victim of terrorism, and therefore seeks to share its
experience and knowledge with other member states; and (b) to
counter the misperception that Pakistan is an exporter of
extremism and instability. As Kamran views it, the main
goals of the SCO are to fight extremism and to promote
economic ties between member states.


6. (C) Kamran said that Pakistan's bid for SCO membership was
stalled by other member states that prefer to deepen
relations between existing members rather than expand SCO
membership. Kamran noted that the Uzbeks opposed Pakistan
even acquiring observer status prior to the defeat of the
Taliban in Afghanistan. Since that time, though, the Uzbeks
have come around to supporting Pakistan's bid for membership.
He also believed that the Uzbeks support Afghanistan's
membership in the SCO, but noted that the SCO is unlikely to
admit the country until it stabilizes internally. (Kyrgyz
Ambassador Azizbek Madmarov separately said there are no
current plans to invite new members. He added that the
current members are satisfied by the observers' roles,
especially in promoting cultural ties and providing advice on
issues of mutual concern).

PAKISTAN'S RELATIONS WITH UZBEKISTAN, CHINA
--------------


7. (C) On the sidelines of the SCO summit, Foreign Minister
Kasuri met with Uzbek Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyaev and
Foreign Minister Vladimir Norov, as well as Chinese Foreign
Minister Yang Jiechi and Prime Minister Wen Jiebo. Kamran
noted that the discussion with the Uzbeks lacked substance,
but more serious trade and security issues were discussed
with the Chinese. According to Kamran, China supports
Pakistan's bid for SCO membership, hoping it will play an
important role in developing economic ties between SCO
members.


8. (C) Kamran noted Pakistan's deepening relations with
Uzbekistan, stating that trade between the countries has
grown by a magnitude of four over the last four years. In
Kamran's point of view, Uzbekistan enjoys good relations with
many Asian countries, though he also recognized that
Uzbekistan will also need to improve relations with the West
to fully escape its isolation.

AMBASSADOR KAMRAN REFLECTS ON UNREST IN PAKISTAN
-------------- ---


9. (C) Kamran expressed his regret at the recent unrest
gripping Pakistan. Unofficially, he shared his opinion that
his government cannot defeat religious militants in Pakistan
militarily, but must open a dialogue with their more moderate
leaders in order to isolate the extremists. While he
believed that using force would be preferable, he did not see
this as a realistic option.

INFORMATION WOES PLAGUE PAKISTANI EMBASSY
--------------


10. (C) Kamran also shared with the Ambassador the
information woes of his Embassy. Kamran reported that the
Embassy's only source of information came from its
subscription to BBC Monitoring and news summaries
occasionally shared by the U.S. Embassy. He noted that it
took up to four days to receive faxes from Islamabad, which
he seemed to indicate was what his Embassy relied upon for
confidential communication. Kamran does not speak Russian,

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and had difficulty following some of the scripted messages
presented at the SCO conference due to the poor quality of
the simultaneous translation.


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KYRGYZ AMBASSADOR DESCRIBES ACTIVE SCO AGENDA
--------------


11. (C) The Ambassador met on November 8 with his Kyrgyz
counterpart, Azizbek Madmarov, who noted that the atmosphere
at last week's Tashkent summit was very positive and there
were useful discussions "in many different directions."
Madmarov added that there is not a pervasive "big brother"
attitude on the part of large, powerful SCO members towards
smaller countries (like Kyrgyzstan) but rather a productive
spirit of mutual cooperation. He noted that each SCO member
state appoints a national coordinator whose job is to pave
the way for key events such as this gathering or the annual
meeting for the heads of state (which took place in Bishkek
this year). In addition to the Prime Minister-level Tashkent
summit, many other minister-level SCO meetings have been held
recently or are planned. The General Prosecutors of the six
member states just completed a meeting on November 7, also in
Tashkent. The Ministers of Agriculture will meet in the near
future, and Energy Ministers will meet per Russia's proposed
"energy club" (although Madmarov noted that Kazakhstan is
seeking "a more Asian strategy" on energy issues). Madmarov
described the "energy club" as more of a concept than an
actual reality at this stage.

AMBITIOUS TRANSPORTATION PROJECTS
--------------


12. (C) According to Madmarov, there were substantial
discussions at the SCO meetings about "special programs of
economic cooperation" between member states. He described
ambitious plans for expanded automobile and railroad links
between Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and China. Regarding
financing for such infrastructure upgrades, Madmarov noted
that each country would be responsible for its own sections,
but he quickly added that "members will also explore ways of
helping each other", which implies that the Kyrgyz and Uzbeks
expect China to fund the lion's share of costs. Press
reports of the SCO event only noted planned road upgrades and
made no mention of rail connections, which would be
particularly challenging given the mountainous terrain
between the countries. (Comment: We have received no
indication that China intends to fund either road or rail
anytime soon. End comment.)

TAJIKS PROPOSE NOVEMBER MEETING ON AFGHANISTAN
-------------- -


13. (C) Madmarov said the SCO countries are not particularly
alarmed by the situation in Afghanistan and that members
welcomed Afghan participation in the SCO summit as guests.
However, at Tajikistan's request, the SCO will conduct a
meeting in November in Dushanbe to consider
Afghanistan-related issues. This initial meeting will be
held on a lower level between foreign ministries, although
eventually the SCO heads of government may meet to discuss
Afghanistan- specific issues.

KARIMOV NOT PRESENT AT PLENARY EVENTS
--------------


14. (C) On the subject of President Karimov's health rumors,
Madmarov was able to confirm that Karimov did not attend any
of the general meetings at the SCO gathering. He added that
it was left very unclear as to whether Karimov was formally
expected to participate, with the Uzbek hosts providing no
information about the President's scheduled activities. But
participants had expected Karimov to show up, and there was
some confusion when he did not materialize at the SCO
meeting. Madmarov emphasized that Karimov did separately
conduct bi-lateral meetings with the Chinese and Russian
Prime Ministers during the timeframe of the SCO summit.
Madmarov drew parallels to an incident earlier this year when
Karimov dropped off the radar screen for awhile with no

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explanation. In that case it turned out that Karimov's aunt
had passed away and he was attending to family business, but
it seems the Apparat does not release any information about
the President when something is out of the ordinary.

COMMENT
--------------


15. (C) The readout from the two ambassadors, one with member
status and one as an observer, indicates that SCO is growing
in stature in the region. After a slow start there is an
active schedule of substantive minister-level meetings on a
variety of issues. Rivalries between Russia and China are
downplayed because members can select the type and extent of
cooperation they wish to engage in, and it seems that so far
both powers can pursue their economic and security agendas
within the SCO framework. It is interesting that members and
aspiring members such as Pakistan increasingly see the
economic development benefits of SCO as being as important as
the security aspects. On the subject of Karimov's health,
the Apparat's silence when the President is unavailable may
indicate internal indecision about how to proceed in his
absence.

NORLAND