UZBEK OFFICIAL CALLS THE ELECTION, HOPES FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TASHKENT 001927

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/ACE RICK STODDARD, SCA/CEN BRIAN RORAFF;
ASTANA FOR ALMATY/USAID

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS PTER EAID UZ
SUBJECT: UZBEK OFFICIAL CALLS THE ELECTION, HOPES FOR
CLOSER TIES

Classified By: Poloff Tim Buckley for reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary. On November 2, poloff spoke at length with
Furqat Sidikov, an Uzbek Diplomat who recently completed a
five-year tour as Press Attache at the Uzbek Embassy in
Washington, DC, and now works at the state-run International
Center for Strategic Studies and Inter-regional Cooperation
in Tashkent. The conversation took place during a function
sponsored by the Open Dialogue Initiative (ODI),which
receives USG funding support. Sidikov stated "we all know
who will be President" after December elections but he noted
the GOU is anxious about how the West will react. He also
suggested it would be easier for NGOs to operate after
elections and said "we need NGO assistance". He said the GOU
welcomes reengagement and noted it is good for regional
balance, which he indicated may have swung too far to the
Russians. He also discussed the threat of Islamic extremism,
and said the USG should pay more attention to numerous
smaller splinter groups that may pose as much of a threat as
larger groups like Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HT) or the Islamic
Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). Despite Sidikov's claim that
he can speak "independently" from his new post outside the
MFA, he is likely dropping carefully calibrated hints from
the GOU. He offered to meet with post any time -- without a
diplomatic note -- since he does not need permission to
speak. At the same meeting the German First Secretary said
there have been positive signs from the GOU since EU
sanctions were lifted and encouraged the USG to follow a
similar strategy. End summary.

Respect for NGOs
--------------


2. (C) ODI Director Mjusa Sever invited Uzbek officials,
diplomats, and journalists to a reception on November 2.
Sidikov readily engaged poloff in a discussion about
bilateral relations and praised Sever and ODI for including
GOU officials in events and keeping them well-informed about
the organization's activities. He suggested that this
reassured the GOU during a time of "revolution syndrome",
when other NGOs worked around the GOU and drew suspicion.
Sever said the same thing at an October 2 meeting with poloff
and visiting desk officer, and the local NDI Director also
previously attributed open communications with the GOU for
that organization's longevity in Uzbekistan. When asked why
ODI still has to go through a difficult annual registration
process, Sidikov said "wait until after the
elections...things will be different." He predicted that ODI
will have no difficulty in receiving their next extension in
the country. He also added that "it was a mistake to get rid
of some of the programs that were here" and "NGOs can teach
us a lot here...we need them."

No Surprises on Election Day
--------------


3. (C) On the subject of the upcoming elections, Sidikov
stated "we all know who will be the President of Uzbekistan."
However, he stressed that the GOU is very concerned about
what the reaction will be from the West. He predicted that
once things settle down after elections the bilateral
relationship can grow, providing the US does not make too
much of a fuss over the elections. Sidikov also volunteered
the GOU is pleased that the new American Ambassador is "more
of an orientalist" who understands the Uzbek perspective. He
also implied that the US undermined some pro-civil society
officials in the GOU who lost influence or key positions when
the relationship soured, ostensibly due to US decisions.

Has the Pendulum Swung Too Far?
--------------


4. (C) Sidikov mentioned a few different times in the
conversation that the GOU welcomes reengagement with the US
and that it is "good for balance." Regarding Russian
influence, he said "just look at Gazprom," and described how
pushy Russian policies seek to impose unfavorable deals on
countries like Uzbekistan. He added that "too much Russia

TASHKENT 00001927 002 OF 002


isn't good for Uzbekistan", and he also cited China's growing
stature in the region. Here again Sidikov subtly mentioned
that they appreciate that Ambassador Norland "knows Asia."

Religious Extremism in Central Asia
--------------


5. (C) Sidikov also raised the issue of religious extremism
in Central Asia, and said "you in the west are so focused on
HT and IMU, but there are more...we are very concerned about
the others." He specifically mentioned Hizb-ut-Nazra, which
he said was an offshoot of HT and more dangerous because its
members are "too impatient and violent" to pursue political
change. He could not estimate how many members belong to any
such groups and added "it is too hard to sort out secular,
moderate Muslims from extremists." He also worried that his
fellow Uzbeks often have flawed knowledge about Islam, which
makes them susceptible to radicalization. However, he added
"the root causes of extremism need to be addressed", and he
cited economic opportunity and, surprisingly, a robust civil
society as important goals. Here again he said that NGOs can
make a contribution in Uzbekistan. He also expressed his
admiration for American society based on his five-year
posting at the Uzbek Embassy in Washington. He said "I have
seen for myself the freedom of even common people in the US,
and I hope that my country can achieve this someday as well."


Germans See the Door Opening
--------------


6. (C) Poloff also spoke with the First Secretary of the
German Embassy, who reported that they have already observed
signs of progress in their relationship since the EU's recent
decision to lift sanctions. He added that nothing changed as
a result of sanctions against Uzbekistan, and "we want to see
the Americans come on board" with this strategy.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Sidikov offered to speak with emboffs at any time,
particularly on the extremism issue, which he says is his
specialty. He emphasized that the usual cumbersome process
of requesting meetings via diplomatic note is not necessary
since he is with the "independent" Center for Strategic
Studies and Inter-regional Cooperation. However, he later
said this organization is "under the President but not part
of the Apparat." He was likely passing on approved messages
rather than speaking candidly. Nonetheless, the ODI event
gave emboffs a chance to have an unstructured conversation
with some Uzbek officials during a sensitive time of the
Presidential campaign when it is difficult to obtain
information.

NORLAND