Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07TASHKENT1843
2007-10-24 10:51:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tashkent
Cable title:  

NUMBER OF PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES GROWS...BUT IS

Tags:  PHUM PGOV KDEM UZ 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO7985
RR RUEHDBU
DE RUEHNT #1843/01 2971051
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 241051Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY TASHKENT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8647
INFO RUEHAH/AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT 3378
RUEHTA/AMEMBASSY ASTANA 9584
RUEHEK/AMEMBASSY BISHKEK 3994
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 3857
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TASHKENT 001843 

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DEPT FOR SCA/CEN AND DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2017
TAGS: PHUM PGOV KDEM UZ
SUBJECT: NUMBER OF PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES GROWS...BUT IS
IT SET TO CONTRACT?

REF: A. TASHKENT 1810

B. TASHKENT 1751

C. TASHKENT 1576

Classified By: POLOFF R. FITZMAURICE FOR REASONS 1.4 (B, D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TASHKENT 001843

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN AND DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2017
TAGS: PHUM PGOV KDEM UZ
SUBJECT: NUMBER OF PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES GROWS...BUT IS
IT SET TO CONTRACT?

REF: A. TASHKENT 1810

B. TASHKENT 1751

C. TASHKENT 1576

Classified By: POLOFF R. FITZMAURICE FOR REASONS 1.4 (B, D).


1. (C) Summary: The field of presidential candidates for the
December election continues to widen with reports that an
independent initiative group has nominated National Human
Rights Center Director Akmal Saidov. According to its
leaders, the Birlik opposition party may also still nominate
its own candidate. However, Embassy contacts report that the
government plans for five of the six government-affiliated
presidential candidates to drop out of the race before the
election, leaving only one of them to run against President
Karimov on December 23. Given that Karimov faced only one
other candidate during previous presidential elections in
1991 and 2000, we believe that this scenario is quite
plausible. End summary.


2. (C) As of October 23, six GOU-affiliated candidates (five
candidates, one from each of the officially registered
political parties, plus one "independent" candidate nominated
by an initiative group) have been nominated for the December
23 presidential election (ref A). At least six other
individuals from human rights groups also have announced
their intention to register as independent candidates (ref
B). In order to finalize their candidacy for the
presidential elections, nominees have to submit signatures
from five percent of Uzbekistan's eligible voters by November

11.

GOU NOMINATES ITS OWN "INDEPENDENT" CANDIDATE
--------------


3. (C) The latest GOU-sponsored entry to the presidential
race is Akmal Saidov, the head of National Human Rights
Center and Parliament's Committee for Democratic
Institutions, who reportedly was nominated by an initiative
group of 300 citizens on October 5. Unlike the nominations
of independent candidates from human rights organizations,
Saidov's nomination was reported by a state-controlled
website and television station. The website described the
initiative group as being composed of "members of various
public and nongovernmental organizations." Saidov is

Uzbekistan's first "independent" presidential candidate,
though in reality, his candidacy appears no less orchestrated
than that of the candidates from the five political parties.
For example, during a government-organized human rights
conference on October 19 attended by poloff, Saidov spoke for
over thirty minutes and failed to once mention his
prospective nomination.

WILL THE CANDIDATE FROM BIRLIK PLEASE STAND UP?
-------------- --


4. (C) On October 9, Birlik Deputy Chairman Pulat Akhunov
told poloff that Birlik leader Abdurakhmon Pulatov, who
currently resides in the United States, was still deciding
whether to form an initiative group and run for president
from exile (ref C). Akhunov, who returned to Uzbekistan from
Sweden in March to renew his passport, reported that
authorities in Andijon told him that he would not be issued a
new passport until next year. Akhunov believes that the
government suspects that he may also try to run for president
if he is issued a passport before the election.


5. (C) On October 9, Free Farmers Party head Nigara
Khidoyatova said that she was approached by local Birlik
leader Vasila Inoyatova, who told her that she was
considering running in the election and asked for
Khidoyatova's support. Khidoyatova said that she agreed to
support Inoyatova, noting that she would support any
candidate running against Karimov (Note: Khidoyatova is also
the main financier of the Human Rights Alliance, which itself
has submitted four candidates for the election). Inoyatova
has yet to make any official announcement. (Comment: We
believe that Inoyatova is waiting for Pulatov to make a final
decision before deciding whether to run herself. End
comment.)

KARIMOV REPORTEDLY TO FACE JUST ONE OTHER CANDIDATE IN

TASHKENT 00001843 002 OF 003


DECEMBER
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Poloff was told by two contacts with ties to
knowledgeable government officials that the GOU ultimately
plans to have only one official candidate run against Karimov
in December, as occurred during the two previous presidential
elections in 1991 and 2000. According to the contacts, the
five other official candidates will drop out before the
actual election is held on December 23.


7. (C) During a meeting with poloff on October 16,
journalist and former IV participant Ikram Yokubov (strictly
protect) said that Anvar Amidov, a former colleague of
Yokubov who works in the "Information Security Studies"
(ideological) department of the Institute of Strategic
Studies, an influential government think tank, told him that
the National Security Council held a meeting in September to
discuss the government's plans for the December election.
During the meeting, which was chaired by NSC First Deputy
Secretary Mir-Akbar Rakhmankulov, it was announced that five

SIPDIS
of the six official candidates would eventually drop out of
the presidential election, leaving only Asliddin Rustamov
from the Public Democratic Party of Uzbekistan (PDPU) to run
against Karimov in December. Yokubov noted that Rustamov,
like Karimov, is originally from Samarkand and is trusted by
the president. At the same meeting, it was reportedly
announced that the government would invite foreign observers
from Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries.


8. (C) Unlike the other four candidates from political
parties, who each lead their own respective parties, Rustamov
is not the titular leader of the PDPU, a position which now
belongs to Latif Gulomov. Rustamov was the leader of the
PDPU from 2003 until 2005, when he was replaced by Gulomov.
Like the other four candidates, though, Rustamov was selected
as a Vice Speaker of Parliament in July 2007. Yokubov
expected that the careers of all six of the official
presidential candidates will more or less be finished after
the election, just as former presidential candidate and PDPU
leader Abdulkhafiz Jalolov eventually retired from politics
following the 2000 presidential elections.


9. (C) Yokubov told poloff that he worked in the ideological
department of the Institute of Strategic Studies from 2002 to

2004. He said that he was fired personally by Karimov at a
meeting after presenting a memo calling on the President to
combat growing corruption in the Ministry of Internal Affairs
(MVD). Yokubov added that he had frequent contact with
Karimov during his three years at the Institute and described
him as a control freak who would never willingly relinquish
power.


10. (C) During a meeting on October 5, Uch Tepe ex-deputy
hokim (mayor) Adolat Nasirova (please protect) also told
poloff that the government plans to have only one of the
official candidates run against Karimov and that the other
candidates will throw their support behind Karimov. Nasirova
said that she was told this by Liliya Sultanova, the wife of
ex-Prime Minister and current Chkalov Aircraft Production
Plant General Director Uktir Sultanov. Sultanova did not
identify which of the official candidates would be chosen to
run against Karimov. Nasirova also reported that the Women's
Committee has finalized plans to organize gatherings across
Uzbekistan to encourage women to vote for Karimov.
Furthermore, Nasirova said she was an acquaintance of
Dilorom Tashmukhamedova, the leader of the Social Democratic
Party "Adolat" (Justice) and the first female candidate to be
nominated as a candidate for president, describing her as "a
good person" but "sheepish" and "weak-willed."

INMATES FOR KARIMOV?
--------------


11. (C) During the meeting on October 16, Yokubov reported
that prisoners in Bekabad were being pressured to vote for
President Karimov in the upcoming election. Abdulkhafiz
Pirnazarov, a former MVD investigative officer and former
schoolmate of Yokubov, was reportedly told by the chief of
Bekabad prison that inmates eligible for the expected
December 8 amnesty will be forced to promise to vote for
Karimov on December 23 before they are released. Pirnazarov

TASHKENT 00001843 003 OF 003


did not know whether similar promises were being extracted
from convicts at other prisons in Uzbekistan.

COMMENT
--------------


12. (C) While we cannot verify the information on the
elections provided to us by our contacts, it is quite
plausible that five of the six official candidates will drop
out before the election, leaving only one of the candidates
to face (and lose graciously to) President Karimov, as
occurred earlier in 1991 and 2000. It may be possible that
the other candidates will refuse to accept their nominations,
fail to collect the necessary number of signatures or simply
drop out of the process sometime before the actual election.
It may also be possible that the government might make an
international political statement and select Saidov,
Uzbekistan's first independent candidate, or Tashmukhamedova,
Uzbekistan's first female candidate, to run against Karimov,
rather than Rustamov. The other major questions remaining
about the election are (a) when will Karimov formally accept
his party's nomination as a presidential candidate, and (b)
how Karimov, who will be running in his third presidential
campaign, will amend the constitution or otherwise explain
away its current two term limit for presidents.
NORLAND