Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07TASHKENT1827
2007-10-23 10:50:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tashkent
Cable title:  

TASHKENT "KREMLINOLOGY": UZBEK OFFICIAL MEDIA SHOW

Tags:  PGOV PREL RS UZ 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6957
PP RUEHDBU
DE RUEHNT #1827/01 2961050
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 231050Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY TASHKENT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8637
INFO RUEHAH/AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT 3372
RUEHTA/AMEMBASSY ASTANA 9575
RUEHEK/AMEMBASSY BISHKEK 3988
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 3851
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 1933
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 7184
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1054
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 0677
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 3726
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 2082
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TASHKENT 001827 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL RS UZ
SUBJECT: TASHKENT "KREMLINOLOGY": UZBEK OFFICIAL MEDIA SHOW
TROUBLED, HAGGARD KARIMOV


Classified By: POLOFF STEVEN PROHASKA FOR REASONS 1.4 (B, D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TASHKENT 001827

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL RS UZ
SUBJECT: TASHKENT "KREMLINOLOGY": UZBEK OFFICIAL MEDIA SHOW
TROUBLED, HAGGARD KARIMOV


Classified By: POLOFF STEVEN PROHASKA FOR REASONS 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: Uzbekistan's official media has shown a very
troubled, aged President Karimov at the October summits of
the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO),CIS, and
EURASEC in Dushanbe. This differs dramatically from previous
coverage, which has generally shown an upbeat, more youthful
president. We hesitate to draw any definitive conclusions at
this point, but such images in the state-run media could
suggest GOU dissatisfaction with Russian and Chinese-led
regional fora, health problems, efforts to undermine Karimov,
or an attempt to identify potential regime threats. End
Summary.


2. (SBU) Official coverage in Uzbekistan's most influential,
state-controlled newspapers--Pravda Vostoka and Narodnoye
Slovo--this October has shown relatively large photographs of
an uncomfortable, upset-looking Karimov at the CSTO, CIS, and
EURASEC summits in Dushanbe. The photos show a grim
expression on his face, clearly visible lines and wrinkles
under his eyes, and scarring on his cheeks and chin.


3. (SBU) These depictions contrast sharply with a body of
photographs from these newspapers over the past seven months.
With few exceptions, these have shown a much more upbeat,
energetic president and tended to show smaller photos that
minimized aging. Previous official media coverage of
Karimov's meetings with senior foreign government officials
in Uzbekistan has typically shown him shaking hands
enthusiastically or leaning forward intently at a desk with a
small smile on his face. Other photos of him at a variety of
functions have shown him sharing a laugh with others,
gesturing dramatically or thoughtfully, and in one case
lifting an Uzbek world champion boxer off the ground in a
bear hug.


4. (C) According to an Embassy public affairs FSN, recent
Uzbek television coverage of the Dushanbe summits showed a
much more depressed-looking Karimov than has been the case in
the past. The FSN noted specifically that official news
channels such as First Channel and Yoshlar portrayed Karimov

this way. Official television and newspaper coverage of
Karimov's visit to Turkmenistan on October 18-19, however,
showed Karimov looking better. Several FSNs described him as
appearing confident and warmer than he had been in Dushanbe.
Pictures of him in Pravda Vostoka and Narodnoye Slovo showed
small photos of him grinning next to President
Berdimuhamedov.

COMMENT
--------------


5. (C) While we cannot draw definitive conclusions from the
media portrayals at Dushanbe, the unflattering depictions
from earlier this month raise some interesting possibilities.
The Uzbekistan Information Agency has traditionally worked
closely with the presidential staff to disseminate officially
sanctioned news. The photos could be a subtle condemnation
of selected Russian and Chinese-led regional summits that
Karimov has attended (an August 17 issue of Narodnoye Slovo
showed a small photo of an anxious Karimov at the Bishkek
summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization) and a signal
that Karimov wants to move away from them. If true, Karimov
may be using the photos as a relatively inoffensive way to
send a signal because senior officials in the Uzbek
government--such as National Security Council Chairman Atayev
and Deputy Foreign Minister Tukhtabayev--have close ties to
Russia. Embassy contacts have indicated to us in recent
months that Karimov is unhappy with how he is being treated
in the Russian-led CSTO and the SCO, and it has been rumored
that during his July visit to Tashkent, Russian First Deputy
Prime Minister Ivanov suggested that Karimov step down
(Karimov reportedly rejected this suggestion).


TASHKENT 00001827 002 OF 002



6. (C) Karimov's appearance in the media covering the
Dushanbe summits could instead reflect an effort to show poor
health; Karimov has long been rumored to be suffering from
health problems. His condition could have been worsened by
having to sit through long meetings away from home in which
heads of state with whom he does not get along were
participating. Other elements within the government--perhaps
the National Security Service, which is represented in the
Uzbekistan Information Agency--may have tried to undermine
Karimov in the runup to the presidential election by showing
a weaker side of him publicly. Alternatively, the GOU may be
using an old Hun strategy which advocated giving the
appearance of weakness in order to draw out suspected
enemies, who would then be crushed. While we do not yet have
enough information at this point to draw a conclusion, these
hypotheses suggest some possible rationales for the negative
portrayal of Karimov in the media. We will continue to keep
our eyes and ears open for clues that could suggest which, if
any, of these is most likely to be true.
NORLAND