PRE-ELECTION TOUR FOR KARIMOV?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TASHKENT 001405

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR UZ
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION TOUR FOR KARIMOV?

REF: A. TASHKENT 199

B. 06 TASHKENT 02017

Classified By: CDA BRAD HANSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B, D).


1. (C) Summary: President Karimov traveled unusually far
afield in May and June, possibly in anticipation of an
expected reelection campaign. Independent press speculation
suggests that the Uzbek president will seek reelection,
possibly by amending the Uzbek Constitution to allow him to
run for a third term. Others speculate some legal ruling
will be finagled explaining away a third term for the
president. Karimov's recent travels can be seen as a
pre-election effort to improve his public image and solidify
his support outside of Tashkent. End Summary.


2. (U) In the six weeks between May 17 and June 22, President
Karimov crisscrossed Uzbekistan, traveling to six of the
country's 14 provinces. The presidential visits generally
followed the same script in Karakalpakstan, Khorezm, Bukhara,
Navoi, Namangan, and Andijon. Karimov toured each province's
major economic enterprises and public works projects and gave
managers and local officials instructions on further
development. The president hosted meetings with farmers,
workers, students, and children, who described local
conditions, discussed their concerns, and expressed gratitude
and enthusiasm for Karimov's leadership. Each visit also
included at least one speech on a public policy issue, such
as economic development, independence in international
affairs, or national culture.


3. (U) Karimov made efforts to reach out to specific
constituencies during his travels, including senior clerics
in Bukhara, ethnic Tajiks in Navoi, women in Namangan, and
farmers in each of the regions. He even praised the
residents of Andijon for "standing firm" during Uzbekistan's
"national tragedy". Uzbek national television covered each
trip extensively, beginning with a morning bulletin on
Karimov's arrival at the regional airport and finishing with
an hour-long special program summarizing the visit a few days
later. According to state-controlled media, the trips were
inspection tours allowing Karimov to evaluate the progress of
local infrastructure construction projects and the provinces'
overall social and economic development.


4. (SBU) Internet news media, however, speculated that the
visits are the beginning of the president's reelection
campaign. Independent internet reports point to the
conspicuous absence of major local personnel changes that
typically characterize Karimov's visits to the provinces
(Note: The hokim of Andijon City was replaced July 4, but
this appears to have been unconnected to the presidential
visit. End Note.) According to NBCentral Asia, Karimov's
trips have been dominated to an unusual degree by populist
events apparently designed to improve the president's public
image. The website "Muslim Uzbekistan" theorizes that
Karimov is seeking to gauge the political mood of the
countryside and bolster his popularity before proposing
changes to Uzbek election law that would allow him to serve
another term. (Comment: Uzbekistan's Constitution requires
that changes to the basic election law, such as one allowing
the President to run for a third term, must be made "within
six-months of the election and following
wide discussion." In the opinion of at least one local
lawyer, this provision easily can be interpreted as allowing
changes to the Constitution and the basic law right up until
the election itself. End Comment.)


5. (SBU) President Karimov was elected to a second term in
office on January 9, 2000. The Uzbek Constitution currently
limits Presidents to two seven-year terms (ref A).
Nevertheless, most credible Uzbekistan watchers believe
Karimov intends to remain in office. Speculation is rife as
to how Karimov may plan to portray his retention of power as
being in conformity with the Uzbek Constitution; many
observers believe that an amendment to the Constitution
allowing the President to run for additional terms is the
most likely scenario (ref B). Others believe a court or
Parliamentary determination may be made interpreting the
referendum and Constitution change extending the President's
term from five to seven years as also somehow setting back
the clock on the number of terms, allowing Karimov to run, in
effect, for a third term, but, in name, as a first term under
the new extended term decided in 2000.


6. (C) Comment: Karimov's tour looks to us like a
pre-election tour designed to remind people of his successes
as President of Uzbekistan. Interestingly, Karimov mostly

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chose to visit regions of the country that he travels to less
frequently, indicating perhaps that he is unsure of his
support in those regions. As "Muslim Uzbekistan" speculates,
Karimov may seek to amend the Constitution to allow him to
seek reelection, possibly by abolishing term limits
altogether. We might therefore expect an amendment of the
term-limits law to be introduced and adopted by the Oliy
Majlis sometime before September 23, the date when, according
to the Constitution, some announcement on the Presidential
elections, expected December 23, must be made. Karimov would
likely announce his candidacy soon afterward. In other
scenarios, another referendum may be held on extending his
current term as President, a court ruling or Parliamentary
resolution made interpreting away the two-term limit, or the
Parliament may seek to anoint him as "President for Life."
HANSON