ESTONIAN DEFENSE MINISTER FORCE FOR CHANGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L TALLINN 000708

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
FOR EUR/NB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIAN DEFENSE MINISTER FORCE FOR CHANGE

Classified By: DCM Karen Decker for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)

REF:QIIR 6954000308


1. (C) Summary. In the relatively short amount of time Minister of
Defense Jaak Aaviksoo has been in office, he has taken significant
steps to reform both the Ministry of Defense (MOD) and Estonian Defense
Forces (EDF). Aaviksoo?s priority for 2007 has been to create a
military legal framework for the EDF. Lack of a clear legal framework
has hitherto fore led to inter-agency friction, turf battles, and
confusion between the MOD and EDF. For 2008, Aaviksoo?s priority will
be to tackle the EDF?s growing personnel shortages, a problem becoming
so acute the EDF is uncertain how it will meet its international
commitments in over the next few years. End Summary.


2. (C) Since becoming Minister of Defense in April 2007, Jaak Aaviksoo
has been pushing a reform agenda in the EDF and MOD. His close
friendship with the current Commander of the Estonian Defense Forces
(CHOD),General Ants Laaneots, has helped dampen the traditional
friction and suspicion between the MOD and the EDF. Aaviksoo has also
not hesitated in removing senior level MOD leadership to overcome
institutional resistance to his vision. (Note: In September, after
months of rumors that the Minister was planning to ?clean house,?
Deputy Undersecretary Lauri Lindstrom was asked to resign. Lindstrom
moved over to the Foreign Affairs Ministry where he is now the Director
General for Policy Planning. End Note.) Andreas Kaju, a close
Aaviksoo?s advisor, describes Aaviksoo?s reform motivation as a desire
to leave behind a ?legacy? at the MOD. Aaviksoo?s priority for 2007
has been to create a clear legal framework for the EDF. For 2008, he
wants to address the EDF?s critical personnel shortage.

The Priority for 2007: Bringing the Rule of Law
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3. (C) Other than two lines in the Estonian Constitution mandating a
civilian-led military (with the President as Commander-in-Chief),
Estonia has no code of military laws in place to cover the EDF and its
activities ? including rules of engagement, chain-of-command and other
critical issues. As a result, over the years, there has been
significant tension between the MOD and EDF over the issue of civilian
oversight and authority. Lt. Mari-Liis Poder, an EDF Reservist and
military lawyer, whose casework is primarily MOD-EDF disputes, told us
that cases often have to be referred to Estonia?s Supreme Court for
resolution. ?It?s not that our military law is bad,? Poder opined,
?it?s that we don?t have any at all.? In his first address to the
newly-elected members of parliament in April, President Toomas Hendrik
Ilves highlighted this problem and called for a constitutional
amendment to clarify the military chain-of-command.


4. (C) Past attempts by the MOD and EDF to deal with this legal vacuum
and negotiate a military legal code have been unsuccessful. According
to Kaju, Aaviksoo?s highest priority for 2007 has been to solve this
problem. Aaviksoo set up a closed committee consisting of Aaviksoo,
CHOD General Ants Laaneots, each of their principal advisors, and a
lawyer from the Ministry of Justice (MOJ). Kaju, who has sat in every
meeting, remarked that CHOD Laaneots was skeptical from the start, but
that his close relationship with Aaviksoo has played a key role in
getting the CHOD to cooperate. Kaju suggested that the CHOD?s
resistance to change is an offshoot of his ?old Soviet mentality.?
Aaviksoo has spent significant time persuading CHOD Laaneots that the
legislation is necessary for Estonia to be a normal NATO ally. The
small committee has allowed both men to ?stick their necks out? and
bypass some of the institutional resistance within the MOD and EDF.


5. (C) Kaju told us that he hopes the draft bill, called the Estonian
Defense Services Act, will be ready to submit to the government before
the end of the year. However, no one outside the committee has seen
the draft bill yet and our working-level MOD interlocutors have
expressed to us their frustration on being cut out of the loop.

The Priority for 2008: Personnel Shortages
--------------


6. (SBU) According to our contacts at MOD, Aaviksoo?s priority for 2008
is to address the EDF?s growing personnel shortage problem. With a
booming economy (an estimated 7.3% GDP growth in 2007) and a tight
labor market, the EDF has not been able to compete with rising wages in
the private sector. As a result, fewer conscripts are choosing to stay
in the military when their obligatory year of service finishes.
Moreover, in an MOD report released this summer, only 23% of those
eligible for conscription were even characterized as fit for military
service. Finally, the EDF?s heavy reliance on its core 1,200
professional soldiers for staffing its most difficult foreign
operations (Iraq and Afghanistan),has led many soldiers to leave the
EDF after serving multiple and successive foreign tours.


7. (C) All this is making it increasingly difficult for Estonia to meet
its current commitments to international foreign operations (reftel).
The MOD and EDF already have had to suspend plans to form two
reconnaissance platoons, an anti-tank platoon, an infantry platoon, and
two fire control squads. Christian-Marc Liflander, MOD Policy Planning
Director, candidly told us he does not know how Estonia will meet all
its international and NATO operational commitments over the next two
years.


8. (C) Over the last two years, the MOD?s budget has increased by 30%.
According to Kaju, however, the GOE will not allow the MOD to increase
EDF and MOD salaries any further in the mid-term. ?Politically, the
public cannot accept that soldiers continue to receive large salary
increases year after year while teachers, doctors, and other civil
service salaries remain the same,? Kaju explained. Therefore, Kaju
said, the Minister is exploring a package of services and social
benefits that could be offered in lieu of higher salaries (e.g.,
credits for higher education, housing allowances, better medical
coverage, life insurance, etc.). However, Kaju admitted that
Aaviksoo?s own party, Isamaa-Res Publica Union (IRL),which is one of
three members of the coalition government, might not support Aaviksoo
in this move. ?Many IRL members suffer from the romantic notion that
serving one?s country in the military is an honor and this should be
enough,? Kaju elaborated. However, the Minister is ready to stand up
to his own party on this issue if need be, Kahju said. Our contacts in
the Reform and Social Democrats (the other two members of the
coalition) have indicated to us that their parties would be interested
in exploring this solution.


9. (C) Comments. It is clear that Aaviksoo is extremely ambitious in
his plans for reforming the Ministry. The drafting of the Estonian
Defense Services Act and his stated desire to address personnel
shortages will likely be important contributions in further modernizing
Estonia?s military, thereby making Estonia an ally which can play an
increasing role in NATO and remain an important partner for us.
However, his own advisors have admitted that he needs to tread
carefully and not make a habit of bypassing the MOD and EDF, in order
to avoid a backlash.

PHILLIPS