Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07TALLINN693
2007-10-26 09:00:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tallinn
Cable title:  

ESTONIA: AFGHANISTAN, YES - IRAQ, YES FOR NOW

Tags:  PGOV PREL MOPS AF IZ EN 
pdf how-to read a cable
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DE RUEHTL #0693/01 2990900
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O 260900Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY TALLINN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0276
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
C O N F I D E N T I A L TALLINN 000693 

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STATE FOR EUR/NB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS AF IZ EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIA: AFGHANISTAN, YES - IRAQ, YES FOR NOW

REF: IIR 6954000308

Classified By: CDA Karen Decker for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L TALLINN 000693

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/NB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS AF IZ EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIA: AFGHANISTAN, YES - IRAQ, YES FOR NOW

REF: IIR 6954000308

Classified By: CDA Karen Decker for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d).


1. (C) Summary. On October 24, the Government of Estonia
(GOE) submitted for Parliamentary approval four bills to
extend Estonian participation in ongoing foreign military
operations (Iraq, Afghanistan, Kosovo, Bosnia) and one to
authorize deployment of troops (the EU Nordic Battle Group).
While we expect all five bills to pass, the Iraq extension is
the most controversial and the vote on that mission will be
close. A shortage of manpower and the priority given to
other missions makes it uncertain whether the GOE will extend
the Iraq mission beyond 2008. End Summary.

Renewing Estonia,s Foreign Operations, Mandates
-------------- --


2. (SBU) On October 24, the GOE submitted five
defense-related bills to the parliament,s National Defense
Committee (NDC). These bills address Estonia,s foreign
military operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, Kosovo, Bosnia and
the EU Nordic Battle Group (EUNBG). The GOE,s bills propose
a 12 month mandate for each mission.


3. (SBU) The NDC will begin debating all five bills on
November 5. With the exception of Iraq, the legislation is
expected to pass without much controversy. According to
Aivar Engel, NDC Secretariat Director, the committee will
begin discussing all five bills on November 5 and hopes to
have them ready by November 14 for the first of three
readings by the full Parliament.

- AFGHANISTAN: The current mission mandate finishes on
December 9 and the Parliament will give priority to approving
the Afghanistan bill. Engel told us the final vote will take
place on/about December 3-7.

- IRAQ: The current mission mandate concludes at the end of
December. Engel told us the NDC hopes to have a final vote
in parliament by December 12-19. However, as in previous
years, this timing is predicated on achieving a new UN
Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) for Iraq in New York.

- KOSOVO, BOSNIA, AND EUNBG: The Kosovo and Bosnia bills
propose extending the EDF,s peacekeeping contributions for

another year. The EUNBG bill would authorize the EDF to
contribute 2 platoons to the EU Battle Group. At the moment,
the EUNBG,s mission remains undecided. There is strong
support across the board in Parliament for these three bills.
According to Engel, the NDC may tack them to the Afghanistan
bill schedule. However, even if they are debated separately,
the NDC expects parliament to take the final vote in December.

Parliamentary Battle Lines over Iraq
--------------


4. (C) In the 101 seat parliament, the six parties have
fallen into the following camps on Iraq:

- OPPOSED TO IRAQ: In the last couple of weeks, two of three
opposition parties -- Center (29 Members of parliament and
People,s Union (PU - 6 MPs) -- have gone on record that they
will vote against the GOE,s bill. The Center Party, which
has faced declining support since the April Bronze Soldier
riots, appears intent on gaining political traction by
opposing the Iraq mission. Center has publicly supported an
online petition calling for the GOE to bring back Estonia,s
troops from Iraq.

- SUPPORTS IRAQ: Two of the three coalition parties -- the
Estonian Reform Party (31 MPs) and Isamaa-Res Publica Union
(IRL -- 19 MPs) continue to staunchly support the Iraq
mission. (Note: Together, Reform and IRL hold 50 votes in
the parliament, 1 less than necessary to approve the bill.
End Note.) Prominent Reform and IRL members in Parliament,
including NDC Chairman Mati Raidma (Reform),and IRL Party
Chairman (and former Prime Minister) Mart Laar, have
maintained consistent support for the Iraq mission.

- DIVIDED OVER IRAQ: The Social Democrats (SDE - 10 MPs),and
the Estonian Greens (6 MPs),are deeply divided over Iraq.
According to party leaders, both the SDE and the Greens plan
to allow their MPs a &free vote8 (i.e. not require a party
line vote). Our SDE and Green interlocutors estimated that
3-5 SDE MPs and 2-3 Green MPs will vote in favor of the Iraq
bill.


5. (C) The GOE is confident it has the 51 votes it needs in
parliament to pass the Iraq bill. Our Center and PU
interlocutors admitted to us that Reform and IRL have done an

excellent job in securing the necessary votes and that they
do not believe they can defeat extension of the Iraq mandate
this year.

Challenges on the Horizon
--------------


6. (C) At a press conference on October 18, Defense Minister
Jaak Aaviksoo reiterated the GOE,s support for the Iraq
mission, but noted that Estonia,s presence in Iraq is not an
open-ended commitment. Aaviksoo said, &For the time being
Estonia has no intention of extending the mission beyond
2008.8 In contrast, Prime Minister Andrus Ansip and Foreign
Minister Urmas Paet continue to publicly argue that Estonian
troops will stay in Iraq for as long as they are needed.
According to our Ministry of Defense (MOD) and Estonian
Defense Forces (EDF) interlocutors, Aaviksoo,s recent
statement is driven by the EDF,s personnel shortages, rather
than political pressure or a change in GOE policy.


7. (C) As Estonia,s foreign military obligations have grown
over the past three years, the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF)
have had to draw upon new soldiers fresh from conscription
service and members of the National Guard to meet Estonia,s
NATO obligations in Kosovo, Bosnia, and the EUNBG. Eight
percent of Estonia,s forces are already deployed in foreign
operations. The EDF has relied on its Scouts Battalion, its
best trained troops, for the bulk of the Iraq and Afghanistan
deployments. As a result, the turnover rate has increased
significantly in the Scouts Battalion among soldiers who have
served multiple and successive deployments to Iraq and/or
Afghanistan. This has worsened the personnel shortages.


8. (C) In 2010, Estonia is scheduled to contribute up to 240
troops to NATO,s Response Force 14 (NRF-14). Art Nomm, MOD
Deputy Operations Director, opined to us that as early as
2009 Estonia,s obligation to support NRF-14 could
&overwhelm8 the EDF,s resources. According to Lt. Colonel
Indrek Sirel, EDF Acting Commander of Land Forces, it may be
too late to make the necessary changes to EDF personnel
resources to meet all of the GOE,s upcoming commitments
(Reftel). It is unlikely that the MOD will reduce its
commitments to Afghanistan, as it is the GOE,s highest
priority. Our MOD and EDF interlocutors have told us that
drawing down the Iraq mission may be necessary to ensure
there are some adequately trained professional soldiers for
NRF-14.
DECKER