ESTONIA: PDAS VOLKER AT V-10 POLITICAL DIRECTORS

C O N F I D E N T I A L TALLINN 000633

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NM - KEITH ANDERTON AND KATHERINE GARRY
DEPT FOR EUR/FO - MELISSA BUCK

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2017
TAGS: PREL PARM NATO KCFE EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIA: PDAS VOLKER AT V-10 POLITICAL DIRECTORS
CONFERENCE, SEP 12-13


Classified By: DCM Karen Decker for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) Summary. EUR PDAS Volker participated in the
Vilnius Ten (V-10) political directors conference in
Tallinn, Estonia on September 12-13. V-10 political
directors generally supported eventual NATO enlargement for
the Adriatic 3 (Albania, Croatia, and Macedonia) and the
need for more EU unity on Russia. However, there were
clear divisions between southern and northern V-10 members
over Kosovo's final status. PDAS Volker provided a debrief
on A/S Fried's September 11 meeting with Russian Deputy
Foreign Minister Kislyak on CFE and outlined the USG's
assessment of the situation and the way forward. End
Summary.


2. (U) EUR PDAS Kurt Volker participated in a meeting of V-
10 political directors in Tallinn September 12-13. He also
held separate bilateral meetings with Estonian President
Toomas Hendrik Ilves, Defense Minister Jaak Aaviksoo, and
Ministry of Foreign Affairs U/S Harri Tiido. The V-10
conference was divided into two parts: one session for V-10
members (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary,
Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, and
the U.S.) and a joint session with NATO aspirant countries
from the Balkans (Albania, Bosnia, Macedonia, Montenegro,
and Serbia). In addition, PDAS Volker had a separate
meeting with the Baltic delegations to discuss the
Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty. He gave
interviews to the two leading Estonian-language and Russian
language television stations in Estonia.

Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty
--------------


3. (C) PDAS Volker briefed the V-10 members on A/S Fried's
September 11 meeting with Russian DFM Kislyak on the CFE
Treaty. While appreciative of the readout, none of the
participants expressed surprise at Russia's posturing.
PDAS Volker said he believed Moscow has already made the
decision to withdraw from CFE and seeking only to pin the
blame on the United States and NATO. He explained that the
rationale for the U.S.-proposed "action-for-action" plan
leading to ratification of the adapted CFE treaty (A/CFE)
was both to bring Russia back to the table, but also to
preempt potential accusations from Moscow that failure to
move on A/CFE was NATO's fault. V-10 political directors
expressed appreciation for U.S. efforts and reiterated
their stance on the importance of holding Russia to its
Istanbul Commitments. Partners also expressed concern
about Germany's hesitancy to hold Russia to its Istanbul
Commitments through concessions on "flank limits."


4. (C) In a separate meeting on CFE with the Baltic
political directors, Estonian, Latvian, and Lithuanian
representatives expressed to PDAS Volker their willingness
to reiterate publicly their desire to join the A/CFE when
that becomes possible. However, all noted that the timing
would depend on having a "sufficiently high-level occasion"
to use as a platform for the announcement. Estonian and
Latvian interlocutors expressed reservations, however,
about indicating that they would be joining the CFE flank
regime. Estonian MFA U/S Harri Tiido privately told PDAS
Volker that he understands and agrees with U.S. logic in
bringing the Balts into the flank regime. However, U/S
Tiido also said the GOE will need something from NATO that
it can take to the public, which explains how and why such
a decision will improve Estonia's security. U/S Tiido also
reaffirmed that Estonia will need something from Russia
(e.g., progress on Istanbul Commitments) -- otherwise, we
are rewarding them for nothing. PDAS Volker agreed that
Estonia's concerns for improved security under CFE are
reasonable. However, he also emphasized that Baltic
participation in the flank regime could well become a key
factor in Alliance negotiations with Russia. If so, he
added, NATO members will need to come back to the Balts on
this issue. U/S Tiido agreed with this assessment and said

that the GOE would have no issues with this so long as
Estonia's "hands were not tied in advance."

Kosovo
--------------


5. (C) On Kosovo, V-10 political directors agreed on the
importance of European unity, a UN Security Council
Resolution (UNSCR),and a negotiated settlement. However,
PDAS Volker pointed out that "unity for unity's sake" was
not in itself a position. The EU had more work to do to
find common ground on a clear position to support Kosovo's
supervised independence -- particularly if the current
negotiations do not produce a result. When asked by PDAS
Volker what the EU's position should be, there was a clear
divide between northern (Poland, Czech Republic, and Balts)
and southern V-10 representatives (Romania, Bulgaria,
Hungary, and Slovakia). The northern V-10 favor
independence for Kosovo, implementation of the Ahtisaari
Plan, and believe that the EU should say this publicly now,
before delays make the situation worse. In contrast,
southern V-10 countries want more time for negotiations --
even if it means pushing back the December 10 deadline if
there is no agreement between Serbs and Kosovars. The
southern V-10 made clear that a UNSCR is absolutely
necessary for any final settlement to be legal. PDAS
Volker reiterated the U.S. position that the status quo
cannot be maintained indefinitely and that time is running
out. Slovenia, consciously wearing its future EU
Presidency hat, avoided siding with any group and stressed
that Kosovo will be at the top of its agenda when it
assumes the EU Presidency in the second half of 2008.


6. (C) In the joint session with Balkan NATO aspirant
countries, the political directors from the A-3 countries
and Montenegro said that regional stability is being held
hostage to the Kosovo issue. The international community
needs to find a solution and move on for the sake of
regional stability and development. The Serbian
representative, Zoran Vujic, laid down the expected
markers: the alienation of Serbs, Serbian opposition to any
unilateral actions, and demands for more serious
negotiations from the Kosovars. However, in contrast to
the usual Serbian position, Vujic showed more flexibility
and willingness to discuss wider regional topics without
fixating on Kosovo. Vujic said that his government's
ultimate goal is for both Serbia and Kosovo to eventually
join the European Union (EU). On the margins of the larger
meeting, Vujic (protect) told PDAS Volker that he
personally agreed with PDAS Volker's assessment that Serbia
has not yet seriously engaged in the negotiations led by UN
Special Envoy Ahtisaari.

Russia
--------------


7. (C) NATO political directors laid out a long list of
complaints about Russia. The Polish and Czech
representatives pointedly described Russia's behavior as a
return to a "1970's mentality." They said Russia is trying
to resurrect a "superpower" relationship with the United
States based on a zero-sum game. All participants
expressed concern about the EU's inability to speak to
Moscow with one voice, especially on energy security.
There was not much optimism that Europe would be able to
overcome its internal divisions in order to think and act
strategically in the short to mid-term. In his review of
U.S. views on Russia, PDAS Volker emphasized our focus on
maintaining transatlantic unity and rejecting zero-sum
thinking. "The Alliance needs to avoid getting sucked into
conflict with Russia and focus on its own agenda," PDAS
Volker said.

NATO Enlargement and Bucharest Summit
--------------


8. (C) All the V-10 political directors supported the idea
of an A-3 big bang NATO enlargement for the sake of
regional stability and development in spite of the problems
in each of these countries. They supported Croatian
membership and agreed that the country was moving in the
right direction. On Macedonia, there was a general
consensus that the country has lost ground recently and
needed to get back on track. On Albania, V-10 political
directors agreed the country has made little progress in
implementing necessary reforms. Volker stressed that we
want to work hard to support Albania, Croatia and Macedonia
in presenting the strongest candidacies possible, but had
not at this stage made any decisions on invitations. He
also stressed that the Albanians and Macedonians need to
understand that there is no consensus at NATO in favor of
their membership, and they need to "put on the gas" on
domestic reforms in the remaining 7 months before the
Bucharest Summit.


9. (C) All V-10 political directors supported offering
Membership Action Plan (MAP) to Georgia, either at the
Bucharest Summit or leading up to the summit. Political
directors from Estonia, Czech Republic, and Latvia were
particularly vocal in expressing their dissatisfaction over
the decision to cancel the North Atlantic Council's (NAC)
visit to Georgia in the face of Russian intimidation.
Czech Political Director, Martin Povejsil, said the NAC
visit's cancellation will only encourage Russia's
belligerent behavior and risk undermining NATO's
sovereignty. U/S Tiido opined that the NAC's decision is
part of the larger problem of Western Europe's general lack
of interest and engagement with Georgia.

U.S.-Estonian Issues
--------------


10. (C) In separate bilateral meetings in the Ministry of
Defense (MOD),Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and with
President Ilves, PDAS Volker offered his thanks and
appreciation for Estonia's contribution in both Iraq and
Afghanistan. Estonian interlocutors repeated their
commitment to both missions. On Afghanistan, U/S Tiido
called Estonia's mission in Helmand its number one foreign
policy priority and said Estonia is committed for the long
term. On Iraq, Defense Minister Aaviksoo predicted that
Estonia will continue its presence for another year. Then,
in 2009, the GOE will reassess whether to continue
participating in Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF). (NOTE:
Parliament is required to vote to extend both the Iraq and
Afghanistan missions before the end of the year. END
NOTE.) All Estonian interlocutors also raised the need for
more cooperation in NATO on cyber security. Defense
Minister Aaviksoo said that the GOE's goal is for its Cyber
Defense Center to become a NATO Center of Excellence. In
the meantime, the GOE is moving ahead in developing its
center and hopes the U.S. can participate as soon as
possible.


11. (U) PDAS Volker gave two interviews for Estonian
television, ETV (the leading Estonian-language station) and
PBK (the leading Russian-language station). Both
interviews focused on Estonia's interest in and efforts to
join the Visa Waiver Program (VWP). PDAS Volker gave his
assurance that the Administration will work under the new
legislation approved by congress to evaluate countries for
visa waiver. He said Estonia is in a good position, but
declined to give a specific date for its joining VWP. He
emphasized that joining the program is a criteria-based
rather than a time-based process.


12. (U) PDAS Volker cleared on the cable.
PHILLIPS