ESTONIA: FORMER PM LAAR OPTIMISTIC ON GEORGIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L TALLINN 000052

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2017
TAGS: PREL GG EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIA: FORMER PM LAAR OPTIMISTIC ON GEORGIA


Classified By: CDA Jeff Goldstein for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) On January 23, former Prime Minister Mart Laar told
Charge that he was "optimistic" about the situation in
Georgia - citing improvements in Georgia's energy security
and factors affecting the situation in Abkhazia. Laar noted
the GOG asked him to come back to Georgia in late February
(in the week prior to Estonia's Parliamentary elections in
which Laar is running),and he plans to go.


2. (C) With respect to gas supply, Laar said, Georgia is in
a much better position this year than expected, despite
complications with Azerbaijani supplies. The combination of
an improved budgetary situation and the warm winter has
helped the Georgians. Starting next year, Georgia will be
independent of Russian gas, Laar added.


3. (C) On Abkhazia, Laar emphasized the importance of getting
international peacekeepers noting there needs to be more than
just Russians on the ground. He maintains contact with
representatives of Abkhazia and noted he believes the
independence movement in this region is "serious," which
makes it possible to negotiate with them. (Note: Laar
contrasted Abkhazia to South Ossetia, which, he claimed, was
under what was tantamount to Russian military occupation,
with all of the South Ossetians involved in the independence
fight in the early '90s having gone over to President
Saakashvili.) Laar noted that the Russians are making things
difficult for the Abkhaz. The Russians have demanded that
the Abkhaz refuse to negotiate with the Georgians, for
example, and - during the Georgian operation in the Kodori
Gorge last year - the Russians demanded the Abkhaz respond
with violence to provoke the Georgians. The Abkhaz refused,
however, arguing that they, not the Russians, would be the
ones to take casualties if it came down to fighting. Laar
said he believes Russian pressure has convinced the Abkhaz
that true independence is not possible. For their part, the
Georgians have indicated they are willing to give the Abkhaz
"everything they want" except formal independence.


4. (C) In contrast, Laar said he has visited Ajaria about
every two months, has never met anyone who was really
interested in autonomy, and he finds this area to be the most
quickly developing part of Georgia. According to Laar, the
Ajarians are extremely satisfied with the economic
development in the region, and public opinion is very
positive towards Saakashvili.


5. (C) Finally, with respect to Russian comments that Kosovo
should serve as an example for resolution of other "frozen
conflicts," Laar said he believes there is a policy debate
within Russian foreign policy elites on the subject. Many of
these elites fear that, if the GOR cites Kosovo as a model,
it sets a precedent for potential secessionists in parts of
Russia such as Chechnya.
GOLDSTEIN