Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07TALLINN472
2007-07-23 09:33:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tallinn
Cable title:  

ESTONIA: THE GOVERNMENT'S FIRST 100 DAYS

Tags:  PGOV PREL MOPS EN 
pdf how-to read a cable
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O 230933Z JUL 07
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0011
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/23/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIA: THE GOVERNMENT'S FIRST 100 DAYS

REF: A) TALLINN 276 B) TALLINN 280 C) TALLINN 347 D)
TALLINN 290 E) TALLINN 366 F) TALLINN 223

Classified By: CDA Jeff Goldstein for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TALLINN 000472

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FOR EUR/NB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/23/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIA: THE GOVERNMENT'S FIRST 100 DAYS

REF: A) TALLINN 276 B) TALLINN 280 C) TALLINN 347 D)
TALLINN 290 E) TALLINN 366 F) TALLINN 223

Classified By: CDA Jeff Goldstein for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) Summary. July 13 marked the first 100 days of
Prime Minister Andrus Ansip's center-right coalition
government. The "Bronze Riots," cyber attacks and
tensions with Moscow, consumed most of the GOE's
attention during this period. Ansip and his Reform party
have emerged even more popular both with the public and
within the coalition-government. At the same time, the
opposition Center Party is facing a low-point in public
support. Given the government's current popularity,
Ansip will be in a good position to convince the
Parliament to renew Estonia's military mandates in Iraq
and Afghanistan when the issue comes to a vote late in
the year. However, there are murmurings that relations
within the coalition may become more strained over time
as some believe Ansip has let success go to his head and
failed to consult enough with parliament and his
coalition partners. End Summary.

Strengthened by Bronze
--------------


2. (U) The first 100 days in office of Prime Minister
Andrus Ansips's government were largely dominated by the
GOE's decision in April to relocate the Soviet-era Bronze
Soldier monument and the subsequent riots in Tallinn,
cyber attacks and Russian efforts to intimidate Estonia
politically and economically (Refs A - E). It is widely
acknowledged that Ansip himself pushed the decision to
move the Bronze Soldier -- and this political decision has
paid off, at least for now. Polls taken by Postimees,
Estonia's paper of record, since the riots have
consistently shown approval ratings for the GOE and Ansip
in the 80th percentile. (Note. Not unexpectedly,
Ansip's popularity among Russian-speaking Estonians, low
to start, has shrunk even more. End Note.)


3. (U) Just as Ansip's personal approval ratings have
skyrocketed, Edgar Savisaar, Mayor of Tallinn and leader
of the main opposition Center Party, has seen his and his
party's popularity plummet among ethnic Estonians.

Throughout the crisis with Russia, other opposition
parties (the Greens and People's Union) supported the GOE
or remained silent. Savisaar, however, launched a very
public and, at times, personal attack against Ansip and
his decision to move the Bronze Soldier. He called for
Ansip to resign and said the Prime Minister had "blood on
his hands." With Estonians rallying behind Ansip,
Savisaar's actions stirred a swift backlash.


4. (C) Estonians largely viewed Savisaar's actions as a
sop to Center's sizeable Russian-speaking supporters and
the Government of Russia (GOR). However, Savisaar's
image was damaged even more when a Duma (Russia's
parliament) delegation visiting Tallinn on April 30
echoed Savisaar's demand that Ansip and the entire GOE
resign. Kadri Must, Center MP and party Secretary
General, said to us, "After the Russians said that,
Ansip's position became even stronger and ours got
worse." Must told us that Center Party websites were
flooded with emails and messages calling Savisaar a
traitor and the Party anti-Estonian. Alexander Lohtman,
Green MP, noted that "the last time a Russian delegation
demanded an Estonian government to step down was in
1940...so it's no surprise that Savisaar lost so much
credibility with Estonians." Postimees surveys since the
riots have confirmed Lohtman's analysis. The majority of
people who express support for Center Party are now
Russian-speakers.

Growing Stronger within the Coalition
--------------


5. (C) Prior to the Bronze Soldier riots, during
coalition negotiations, Reform's strong arm tactics --
particularly with respect to allocating cabinet seats --
created discontent among its partners (Ref F).
Parliamentary interlocutors speculated that Reform's
"take-it-or-leave-it" attitude had the potential to
eventually drive the SDE and IRL to cut a deal with
Center to form a new coalition government before the 2009
local elections. However, as Randel Lants, SDE Secretary
General, told us, "Center Party is a political
untouchable now and nobody in the coalition would

TALLINN 00000472 002 OF 003


consider working with them." Coalition governments have
historically been short-lived in Estonia, but Lants told
us he cannot see how his party or IRL could possibly
enter into government with Savisaar's Center Party in the
foreseeable future. Center MP Kadri Must admitted to us
that Center's planned post election strategy of stymieing
the GOE's legislative agenda by peeling away IRL and
Social Democratic MPs on key GOE bills will be much
harder in this new political climate.


6. (C) Consequently, Ansip and Reform have strengthened
their already considerable clout in the coalition, the
parliament, and with the public. Silver Meikar, a Reform
MP, told us off-the-record that Ansip would prefer to
keep this center-right coalition until the next
parliamentary elections in 2011. However, he said, it
still would "not be unthinkable" for a different Reform-
led coalition to emerge before then. Meikar said that
Reform could work again with Center if need be, but this
time it would be in a stronger position to exact
concessions from Savisaar. In any case, with the SDE and
IRL's support locked in for the foreseeable future and
Center Party temporarily weakened, Reform seems content
with the status quo.

Pride Cometh Before a...
--------------


7. (C) Some MPs have expressed to us concerns that Ansip
may over estimate his position both with his coalition
partners and in the Parliament. SDE and IRL
interlocutors told us they believe that Ansip is letting
success go to his head. Ansip's strategy for handling a
tax reform bill - the Parliament's only major piece of
legislation since the election - demonstrates this. The
Reform Party allowed only two weeks debate before passing
the bill. Meikar observed that MPs, including several in
Ansip's own Reform Party, were uncomfortable with this
approach. "Parliament can't be Ansip's personal rubber
stamp," Meikar said to us, "and I hope this won't be the
new trend."


8. (C) Meikar opined that Ansip's closest confidants,
Foreign Minister Urmas Paet and Reform MP Keit Pentus,
need to advise him to reign in any desire to become a
"Presidential" prime minister. However, as Ansip has
been instrumental in their political rise within the
party, it is not clear how willing either would be to act
as a check-and-balance to Ansip. Ott Lumi, an IRL MP,
summed it up by telling us, "The only check on Ansip
these days is Ansip himself." At the same time, our IRL
and SDE interlocutors have indicated to us that they
would like to see this coalition to continue past the
2009 local elections. Lumi noted that it would help if
Ansip would consult with his coalition partners and
parliament more. As an example, Lumi pointed out how
well Ansip worked with Defense Minister Jaak Aaviksoo
(from IRL) during the Bronze Soldier events and argued
that positive leadership like this would produce a "win-
win" outcome for the whole coalition.

Big Issues on the Horizon
--------------


9. (C) In the fall, the Parliament is scheduled to debate
and pass a new budget, expanded legislation for maternity
and paternity leave, implementation of EU tax legislation
(e.g., non-taxation of reinvested profits),and a number
of high profile foreign policy bills. On the domestic
front, the budget is the most important. Lumi told us
that the coalition partners have all agreed on the
spending priorities. While the budget reflects Reform's
priorities (e.g., maintaining a budget surplus),Lumi
noted, there are enough "carrots" for IRL and SDL
priorities. One area that may create friction, however,
is education spending, which is vulnerable to cuts. This
would impact IRL most significantly as the party holds
the Minister of Education portfolio. "Center Party will
likely attack us on this issue," Lumi explained, "but
they don't have the votes to kill it." On the other
domestic legislation, the GOE does not expect much
opposition.


10. (C) Parliament's vote on mission mandate renewals for
Estonia's military contributions in Iraq, Afghanistan,
and Kosovo will also take place late this fall. The
Kosovo and Afghanistan missions have wide support among
all the parties in parliament. However, Iraq will be

TALLINN 00000472 003 OF 003


more contentious as popular support for this mission
remains low. Now that it is out of government, Center
Party will likely try to use Iraq as an issue to gain
traction and improve its standing with the electorate.
According to Andres Kasekamp, Director of the Estonian
Foreign Affairs Institute, Ansip is in a stronger
position now than he was last year when Parliament
debated the Iraq mission mandate. As Kasekamp explained,
U.S. support during the Bronze Soldier crisis -- including
President Bush's well-timed invitation to President Ilves
to visit the White House in June -- has strengthened
Ansip's already considerable political clout in seeking
another mandate. In his opinion, unless there are mass
casualties, it is more likely that a number of Center MPs
will vote against their party and support Ansip then
Reform, IRL, or SDE MPs would vote against the
government. (Comment: The GOE has made clear that it
will only move forward to renew the mandate for Estonia's
troops in Iraq once the Security Council has extended its
mandate for the Multinational Force. The Estonians will
also be keeping a close watch on the Iraq debate in the
U.S. End Comment.)


11. (C) Comment. It is clear that since his government
assumed power, Ansip continues to be on a political roll.
While there are fears that he may over-reach and make
policy decisions with a small coterie of allies, in the
short-to-mid-term, our Estonian interlocutors concede
that he has the strength to push forward with his
legislative agenda. End Comment.
GOLDSTEIN