ESTONIA'S BRONZE SOLDIER: EXCAVATION BEGINS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TALLINN 000276

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NB - VICTORIA MIDDLETON, KEITH ANDERTON, AND
JAMES LOVELL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL RS EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIA'S BRONZE SOLDIER: EXCAVATION BEGINS

REF: A) GOLDSTEIN-MIDDLETON EMAIL 26APR07 B) TALLINN

106

Classified By: CDA Jeff Goldstein for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) Summary. After nearly a year of controversy, and
weeks of speculation that the Estonian government would
finally remove the city's WWII-era Soldier and any war
graves found nearby, the process has begun. The GOE has
extensively briefed the press, the ethnic Russian community
the diplomatic corps, and the Tallinn City Council, but
still faces the prospect of legal challenges from the city,
and demonstrations by activists coming from both outside
and inside the country. The government is sensitive to the
possible escalation of tensions with Russia over this move,
but determined to press forward with excavation of the
site. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Between 4:30 and 6:00 on the morning of April 26,
the Government of Estonia (GOE) erected a security fence
around the Bronze Soldier and the park in which it is
located. This is the GOE's first step in its plan to
remove and relocate the Bronze Soldier and any war graves
that may be buried near it to a military cemetery nearby.
The erection of the security fence took place without any
major incidents, but Estonian Security Police (KAPO)
interlocutors informed us that due to public rallies
already forming around the statue, they are planning to
lengthen the security fence perimeter. Several TV crews
and representatives from Russian-minority interest groups
were present from the moment the police erected the fence.


3. (SBU) Ministry of Defense (MOD) and Ministry of Foreign
Affairs (MFA) interlocutors have informed us that
excavations of the war graves will begin next week, and
will probably last at least until the middle of May. As a
result of the excavation, Prime Minister Andrus Ansip
announced that it will not be possible for people to leave
flowers at the monument on May 9, Victory Day. MFA
Director General Simmo Tiik told foreign Ambassador's
resident in Tallinn that those who wished to do so could
leave flowers at the military cemetery, and pointed out
that many had done so in the past, including
representatives of the Russian embassy. Tiik emphasized
that Estonia has discussed this issue with the Russian
government for a year now, but that the Russians had
refused to cooperate. He stressed, however, that the
Estonians have offered the Russian embassy an opportunity
to observe the excavation work and that Estonian forensic
experts will ask Russia for any help they may need to
identify the remains buried at the site.


4. (C) For weeks leading up to today's events, Russia has
been waging an active propaganda campaign against the
removal of the Bronze Soldier. On April 25, Estonia's
paper of record, Postimees, released a story naming two
Russian diplomats whom KAPO accused of fomenting and
organizing groups of young Russian-speakers to protest.
Andreas Kaju, Advisor to Defense Minister Jaak Aaviksoo,
told us off-the-record that Foreign Minister Urmas Paet
"gave KAPO the green light to embarrass the Russians."
Kaju dismissed the two Russian diplomats as being "reckless
and foolish." The Estonians have assured us they have no
plans whatsoever to PNG the Russians. According to Kaju,
what concerns the GOE more deeply was the recent admission
by Minister of Internal Affairs, Juri Pihl, in an internal
cabinet meeting that Estonian intelligence estimates that
up to as many as 400 Russian nationals may have entered
Estonia in the last couple of weeks to agitate the
situation. Kaju said that KAPO was working hard to find
the agitators they know to be in the country and deport
them as quickly as they can.


5. (C) MOD interlocutors have said that the next 24 to 48
hours will be critical for the GOE to show that it is in
control of the situation. Extra police from all over the
country have been brought in, and have already been
stationed around the park. Yesterday, Prime Minsiter Ansip
gave a long interview on local Russian-language radio to
explain the government's position, and today Defense
Minister Aaviksoo will meet with a roundtable representing
30 different social organizations interested in the issue,
including major Russian groups. The Constitution Party,
the largest Russian party in Estonia, has stated it will
avoid any extra-legal activities, but the more radical
"Night Watch" has said that, while it opposes violence, any

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violence that now occurs will be the government's fault.
The MOD's Kaju told us he was concerned by a KAPO report
that Russian-speaking groups were planning to bus in
Russian-speaking school children from northeastern Estonia
to Tallinn to join the protests. If true, Kaju was
concerned that Moscow would use images of Estonian police
facing off against school children for its "anti-Estonia PR
purposes."


6. (C) Our GOE interlocutors have regularly stressed with
us that the Bronze Soldier's removal is purely an internal
matter being done in accordance with Estonian and
international law. Our MOD, MFA, and KAPO interlocutors
all assured us that unless the Supreme Court rules against
the GOE in a pending legal challenge to the Law on War
Graves the statue will be moved.


7. (C) Comment: Even though PM Ansip and FM Paet's Reform
party has been the principal driver behind the removal of
the Bronze Soldier, GOE interlocutors have shared with us
that Moscow's provocative behavior has started to create a
sense of solidarity in the Cabinet. Moreover, with the
erection of the security fence, GOE interlocutors have told
us that any back-down would be disastrous for the GOE,
leaving no party unscathed. End Comment.
GOLDSTEIN