ESTONIA'S ELECTION RESULTS

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SUBJECT: ESTONIA'S ELECTION RESULTS



1. (SBU) Summary: The center-right Reform Party won the
most seats in Estonia's March 4 parliamentary election,
earning Andrus Ansip, Reform Chairman and Prime
Minister, the opportunity to form the next government.
PM Ansip essentially has two options for coalition
building: forming a center-right coalition with Pro
Patria-Res Publica Union (IRL) and at least one other
party or, negotiating a new, two-party coalition
agreement with current partner, Edgar Savisaar's
populist Center Party. This election was the world's
first national election which allowed voters to cast
their ballots via the internet. Voter turnout (61.9%)
was higher than expected. End Summary.

The Results: Reform Comes out on Top
--------------


2. (U) Six parties won seats in the new Parliament,
including the recently established Estonian Greens. The
percentage of total votes received and the distribution
of seats in the 101-seat parliament is outlined below.
Five parties (including all of the ethnic Russian
parties) that participated in the election did not make
the 5% threshold for seats in parliament.

PARTY PERCENT SEATS CHANGE IN SEATS (2003
ELECTION)

- Reform 27.8% 31 +12
- Center 26.1% 29 +1
- Pro Patria/ 17.9% 19 -16
Res Publica
Union (IRL)
- Social 10.6% 10 +4
Democrats
(SDE)
- Estonian 7.1% 6 +7
Greens
- People's 7.1% 6 -7
Union
--------------
- Estonian 1.7% 0 0
Christian
Democrats
- Constitution 0.2% 0 0
Party
- Independence 0.2% 0 0
Party
- Russian Party 0.2% 0 0
In Estonia
- Left Party 0.1% 0 0
- Independent 0.1% 0 0
Candidates

(Note: The last column compares the parties new seat
totals with the official number of seats they held after
the 2003 Parliamentary election. However, in some
cases, the number of seats actually controlled by the
parties changed during the course of the last
parliament's term because some MPs changed parties. End
note.)


3. (U) All parties currently represented in parliament
succeeded in returning. No independent candidates were
elected. Prime Minister and Reform Party Chairman,
Andrus Ansip, received the largest number of votes in
Estonian history (22,556 votes). Center Party Chairman
and Minister of Economy, Edgar Savisaar, came second
(18,013 votes) followed by Tartu Mayor and Reform member
Laine Janes with 9,311 votes, IRL Prime Minister
candidate Mart Laar with 9,252 votes and Foreign
Minister and Reform member Urmas Paet with 8,684 votes.


4. (U) Overall, voter turnout was higher than expected.
61.9% (546,139) of all eligible voters went to the polls
(compared with 58% in the 2003 election). Voter turn-
out was highest in Tallinn's third district (73%),while
the lowest share of eligible voters cast ballots in the
(predominantly Russian-speaking) north-eastern county of
Ida-Virumaa (53%).

Now Comes the Hard Part: Forming a New Government
-------------- --------------


5. (U) The process for forming a new government is
complicated and will likely take several weeks. The new
parliament's mandate formally begins the day after the
National Electoral Committee officially certifies. The
President will appoint a candidate for Prime Minister to
form the new government. Before the election, President
Toomas Hendrik Ilves pledged to give the first
opportunity to form a government to the Prime
Ministerial candidate of the party which won the most
seats -- Andrus Ansip. After he is officially nominated,
PM Ansip will have two weeks to form a government
coalition. PM Ansip will become the first sitting PM to
be re-elected in Estonia's history since re-
independence.


6. (U) Since no single party won a majority of 51 seats,
Ansip will have to negotiate a coalition agreement with
at least one other party. He essentially has two
options for doing this:

-- Negotiate a center-right oriented coalition with
former PM Mart Laar's ideologically like-minded IRL.
Together, a Reform-IRL coalition only controls 50 seats.
As a result, such a coalition would also need the
participation of at least one other party: the SDE, the
Greens or (less likely) the People's Union. Each of
these parties, though, would present a set of challenges
for reaching a coalition agreement (e.g., the SDE
disagrees with Reform on taxes, while the Greens oppose
Reform's support for nuclear energy). Additionally,
Reform and IRL have had a fractious history, most
noticeably during the last center-right coalition
government (2003-2005) which collapsed due to internal
differences.

-- Renegotiate a coalition agreement with current
partner, the populist Center Party, led by controversial
Minister of Economy Edgar Savisaar. No other party
would be necessary in such a coalition, as together the
two parties control 60 seats. In the current coalition,
Reform has shown it can work with Center, despite
differences over key issues including tax policy, Iraq,
and issues related to Estonia's Russian-speaking
minority.

E-Voting: First in the World
--------------


7. (U) Estonia's parliamentary election was the world's
first national election to allow voters to use the
internet to cast their ballot. (Note - Estonia actually
first allowed e-voting in the 2005 local election. End
Note.) 3.4% of voters (30,275) voted online -- three
times the number who voted this way in 2005. Over a
third of online votes went to Reform (34.5%). Center
and People's Union received just 12.7% of online votes.
Estonia's national identity card doubles as a smart card
with an integrated electronic chip that allows for
secure remote authentication and legally binding digital
signatures. Voters could vote online from February 26
to 28 and change their electronic vote an unlimited
number of times prior to Election Day.


8. (SBU) Comment. We expect coalition negotiations to
take several weeks. Reform's electoral success and
Ansip's personal historical vote total put him in a
position of strength to negotiate a coalition agreement.
In his interviews following announcement of the
preliminary election results, Ansip was quick to say it
is too early to talk about the new coalition's make-up
and that "nothing can be ruled out." However, hinting
at his negotiating strategy, Ansip also pointed out that
Reform has more in common with IRL than with current
coalition partners, Center and People's Union. Post
will closely monitor and report on progress on coalition
negotiations in the coming weeks.

JOHNSON