FORMER ACTING KAOHSIUNG MAYOR YEH CHU-LAN ON DPP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000302

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2032
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: FORMER ACTING KAOHSIUNG MAYOR YEH CHU-LAN ON DPP
POLITICS AND CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM (C-AL7-00162)


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Former Acting Kaohsiung Mayor Yeh Chu-lan
told the Director on February 6 that President Chen retains a
fair, though limited, amount of influence over the DPP.
Weakened by a series of corruption scandals that engulfed his
family and the Presidential Office last year, Chen
nevertheless has the ability to shape political discourse
through the presidential bully pulpit. Yeh suggested that
Chen will probably play a crucial role in the upcoming 2007
legislative and 2008 presidential elections because the
Presidential Office has the political resources to help DPP
candidates win. The Director cautioned this key DPP leader
over destabilizing attempts to push sovereignty issues in any
constitutional reforms. In response, Yeh emphasized that the
DPP will not take "rash" steps on constitutional reform in
the upcoming year, explaining that internal party discussions
so far have focused on reforming Taiwan's political structure
and have not addressed sovereignty-related articles. End
Summary.

President Chen Thinking of Legacy
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2. (C) Former Acting Kaohsiung Mayor Yeh Chu-lan told the
Director on February 6 that President Chen Shui-bian retains
a fair, though limited, amount of influence over the
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Although not as strong
as he was before a series of corruption scandals engulfed his
family and the Presidential Office last year, Chen maintains
the ability to shape party policy and political debate
through the presidential bully pulpit. Chen no longer
participates directly in internal party factional politics
and cannot make unilateral decisions on behalf of the party.
DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun is loyal to Chen, but given the
party's democratic decision-making culture, no one individual
has final say over major issues, Yeh explained. As an
example, Yeh pointed out that Chen was called before the
party's Central Executive Committee (CEC) to explain the
Presidential Office's use of a special state affairs fund
that led to the indictment of the First Lady last year.


3. (C) Yeh suggested that President Chen will probably
focus the remainder of his term on initiatives aimed at
deepening Taiwanese identity and cementing his political
legacy. Chen will also play a crucial role in the upcoming
2007 legislative and 2008 presidential elections. Although
Chen does not have the power to hand-pick the DPP,s
presidential candidate, his support will be crucial to
mobilizing the necessary political resources to win in 2008,
emphasized Yeh. The DPP will choose its presidential
candidate through an open and competitive primary race in
which public opinion polls (weighted at 70 percent) will be
more important that the party vote (weighted at 30 percent)
in determining the winner. Yeh expects Chen to remain
relatively neutral throughout the primary and to refrain from
openly endorsing any of the three potential contenders: Yu
Shyi-kun, Premier Su Tseng-chang, or former Premier Frank
Hsieh (Chang-ting). The DPP will ultimately rally behind
whoever is chosen to avoid the internecine fighting
characteristic of the opposition Kuomintang, Yeh added.


4. (C) Yeh is optimistic that the DPP can win in 2008
because KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou is facing his own
investigation into the use of a special mayoral account from
his tenure as Taipei mayor. The KMT-led pan-Blue coalition,
moreover, has not taken advantage of its majority in the
Legislative Yuan (LY) to push forward constructive policies,
failing to leave an impressive legislative record. Yeh
explained that the KMT's strong grass-root organization has
become relatively weaker as the DPP has been building its own
grass-root infrastructure since 2000. Whether Taiwan's next
president comes from the KMT or DPP, Yeh assessed he will
inherit from President Chen the challenging responsibility of
advancing cross-Strait relations and improving Taiwan's
economy.

DPP Moving "Carefully" on Constitutional Reform...
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5. (C) The Director underscored with Yeh, a member of the
DPP Central Standing Committee (CSC),the importance of
maintaining peace across the Taiwan Strait and of avoiding
controversial, sovereignty-related constitutional reforms in
the coming year. Yeh gave her assurance that the DPP would
not do anything "rash," noting that the party has no
intention of endangering the lives of Taiwan,s 23 million
people. She explained that discussions so far have addressed
the reform of Taiwan's political structure, with debate
focusing on whether Taiwan should adopt a strong presidential
or parliamentary system of government. The CSC in its
deliberations has not "seriously" discussed changing the
national title or redefining the territory, despite
expectations from the party's deep Green base to do so. Yeh
elaborated that, as the opposition party, the DPP had pushed
a strong Taiwan independence agenda vis-a-vis the KMT
government, but as the ruling party the DPP has had to be
"more careful" in approaching such issues.

...While Aiming for a "Normal Country"
--------------


6. (C) As the ruling party, the DPP's ultimate goal, Yeh
continued, is to make Taiwan into a "normal country." Without
a voice on the world stage the people of Taiwan have little
"room to breathe" in the face of PRC efforts to constrain
Taipei's international space. Yeh emphasized that
constitutional reform efforts, as well as Taiwan's efforts to
join the UN as "Taiwan," should be placed within such a
context. Yeh suggested that while Taiwan must look to the
goodwill of its allies and the evolution of a future
democratic China to resolve its international status, the
"reality" remains that there is one China and one Taiwan and
that the two exercise no sovereignty over one other.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Yeh is seen by many as a potential vice presidential
candidate who would help either Premier Su Tseng-chang or
former Premier Frank Hsieh with women and Hakka voters. She
made it clear she remains a strong supporter of President
Chen. Recently returned from a three week private visit to
the U.S. to visit her brother and daughter, Yeh told us she
has turned aside overtures from President Chen to take a
government job in favor of taking a break to focus on
strategic issues and to visit her supporters throughout the
island. Despite her assurances that the DPP will move
cautiously on constitutional reform proposals in the coming
year, stated efforts by Yeh and others recently about turning
Taiwan into a "normal country" could push the envelope on
"red line" issues in the constitutional reform process.
Moreover, President Chen's ability to set the tone and
direction of political discourse as Taiwan enters what is
sure to be a contentious election year leaves room for
surprises.
YOUNG