Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07TAIPEI297
2007-02-07 09:13:00
CONFIDENTIAL
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:  

MAC OFFICIAL DESCRIBES EXPANDED CROSS-STRAIT

Tags:  PREL EAIR ECON TW CH 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO0303
RR RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC
DE RUEHIN #0297/01 0380913
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 070913Z FEB 07
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4025
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000297 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE PASS USTR
STATE FOR EAP/TC
COMMERCE FOR 3132/USFCS/OIO/EAP/WZARIT
TREASURY FOR OASIA/LMOGHTADER
USTR FOR STRATFORD, ALTBACH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2017
TAGS: PREL EAIR ECON TW CH
SUBJECT: MAC OFFICIAL DESCRIBES EXPANDED CROSS-STRAIT
DIALOGUE

REF: A. TAIPEI 271


B. TAIPEI 133

C. TAIPEI 90

Classified By: AIT Deputy Director Robert S. Wang, Reason 1.4 d

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000297

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE PASS USTR
STATE FOR EAP/TC
COMMERCE FOR 3132/USFCS/OIO/EAP/WZARIT
TREASURY FOR OASIA/LMOGHTADER
USTR FOR STRATFORD, ALTBACH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2017
TAGS: PREL EAIR ECON TW CH
SUBJECT: MAC OFFICIAL DESCRIBES EXPANDED CROSS-STRAIT
DIALOGUE

REF: A. TAIPEI 271


B. TAIPEI 133

C. TAIPEI 90

Classified By: AIT Deputy Director Robert S. Wang, Reason 1.4 d


1. (C) Summary: According to a Taiwan Mainland Affairs
Council (MAC) senior official, there has been a marked
improvement in the cross-Strait dialogue since 2005. He
credited U.S. pressure on Beijing in part for a change in
Beijing's willingness to work with the Chen
administration. The MAC official believes a breakthrough
on tourism and charter flights is likely between March
and May. In addition to charter flights and tourism, he
described five other topics under discussion by the two
sides. End summary.

More Dialogue Since 2005
--------------


2. (C) MAC Chief Secretary Jan Jyh-horng told AIT on
February 6 that there has been a marked improvement in
cross-Strait dialogue since early 2005. Previously,
Beijing had been unwilling to engage the Chen Shui-bian
administration in any productive exchange, explained Jan,
a civil servant who has worked in MAC for seventeen years.
Then-KMT Chairman Lien Chan's April-May 2005 visit to the
Mainland strengthened the opposition party's image of
being able to work with China. At that time, Jan said,
the Chen administration made it clear to Beijing that
real progress on cross-Strait issues would require
Beijing to deal directly with Taiwan authorities and
cease using the KMT to apply pressure on the Chen
administration.


3. (C) Jan also credited U.S. and Japanese pressure on
Beijing to work directly with Taiwan's democratically
elected representatives as facilitating this cross-Strait
dialogue. He cited a conference of Taiwan and PRC
scholars, in which the PRC academics complained to their
Taiwan counterparts about U.S. pressure and urged that
the Taiwan authorities ask the United States to reduce
such pressure.


4. (C) Jan pointed to the ongoing discussions of charter

flights and tourism as concrete evidence of the shift in
the cross-Strait dynamic. In addition, he noted that
four other issues were also under discussion --
agricultural trade and investment, protection of
intellectual property rights, fighting crime, direct
maritime transportation, and trade in sand and gravel.
Jan pointed out that dialogue on these issues was more
informal than charter flight and tourism discussions;
these discussions were channeled primarily through
industry representatives. According to Jan, these latter
four sets of discussions are in the early stages and
unlikely to yield significant concrete results in the
near term. One exception is the discussions on PRC sand
and gravel exports; the PRC has announced it will impose
a ban on sand and gravel exports on March 1, but Jan
believes the bilateral discussions might secure a special
quota for exports to Taiwan. He also reported that there
had been very little progress toward initiating
discussions on cross-Strait financial issues, including
currency exchange and banking supervision.


5. (C) Jan told AIT that Beijing's recent decision to
stop blocking access to two major Taiwan newspaper
websites was a MAC precondition for allowing People's
Daily and Xinhua reporters back into Taiwan. According
to media reports, the PRC Taiwan Affairs Office announced
February 5 that Mainland authorities had ceased blocking
access to the pan-Blue (pro-unification) China Times
(Zhongguo Shibao) and United Daily News (Lianhebao)
websites for internet users in Guangzhou and Shanghai.
MAC, Jan explained, had decided not to push for access to
the pan-Green (pro-independence) Liberty Times (Ziyou
Shibao) because of likely resistance from Beijing. Jan
described this as the clever strategy of MAC Chairman

TAIPEI 00000297 002 OF 003


Joseph Wu, for PRC internet users would be able to use
the China Times and United Daily News websites as portals
to enter other Taiwan sites that remain blocked.

Possible Tourism and Charter Flights Spring Breakthrough
-------------- --------------


6. (C) On cross-Strait discussions to further open Taiwan
to PRC tourists and implement frequent cargo and weekend
passenger charter flights, Jan concurred with assessments
from industry contacts (refs A and C) that nearly all of
the technical issues had been resolved. He told AIT that
discussions on both topics were at about the same stage
and could probably be concluded quickly. Jan
acknowledged that the PRC was pressing for a simultaneous
announcement of agreements on all three -- tourism, cargo
and passenger charters. Despite continuing opposition
from the deep-Green Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) to
passenger charter flights, Jan said, Taiwan authorities
do not rule out a simultaneous announcement. He stressed
the broad support in Taiwan for all three initiatives,
and noted that the TSU was, in any event, a declining
political force.


7. (C) Jan carefully explained the likely timing for
conclusion of discussions on the three initiatives.
According to Jan, there will be no progress during
February because of the long Lunar New Year holiday on
both sides of the Strait, while in March, Beijing will be
focused on the National People's Congress (NPC). After
the NPC, however, Jan sees a window of opportunity that
will last until Taiwan's political parties pick their
presidential candidates in late May or early June.
Subsequently, the approach of the Chinese Communist Party
(CCP) 17th Party Congress in October and year-end Taiwan
legislative elections will likely thwart any further
cross-Strait progress, he concluded.

MAC Trying to Avoid Politics
--------------


8. (C) Jan told AIT that the opposition KMT does not
oppose or seek to undermine expansion of the cross-Strait
dialogue. Rather, the KMT seeks political credit for
helping facilitate the dialogue. MAC, Jan explained, is
working to depoliticize the cross-Strait dialogue so that
Taiwan leaders are not focused on gaining political
benefit from the process. Jan also claimed that over the
past six years the Chen administration had exerted little
political pressure on MAC. However, he noted that
despite electoral setbacks that have reduced the
influence of the TSU, MAC still has to take into account
the deep-Green party's hard-line views, notably its
opposition to direct passenger flights.

Comment - PR with Substance
--------------


9. (C) AIT believes Chief Secretary Jan's assertion that
the conditions are highly favorable for a breakthrough on
cross-Strait tourism and charter flights during the
April-June "window of opportunity" rings true. Jan's
forecasts of cross-Strait progress are typically more
cautious and conservative than those of his politically-
appointed MAC bosses. After a long career at MAC, Jan
Jy-horng has a long-term perspective and refuses to play
the political game. He is, moreover, a true insider whom
Chairman Joseph Wu introduces as his right hand man. Jan
frequently appears with Wu and the MAC Vice Chairmen at
hearings in the Legislative Yuan and he usually
accompanies Wu in meetings with the AIT Director. Jan
has been consistently frank and straightforward in
discussions with AIT, and AIT places great credence in
Jan's explanations and prognostications.


10. (C) Jan's comments, moreover, are consistent with
private reports from industry contacts and public
comments by Chairman Wu and his Deputy Chairmen (refs A,
B and C). However, optimistic public predictions by

TAIPEI 00000297 003 OF 003


senior MAC officials may also be part of a public
relations campaign aimed at both Beijing and the Taiwan
public. MAC wants to keep the pressure on Beijing to
move discussions forward. It wants to convince the
Taiwan public that the Chen administration can work with
China on economic initiatives. In addition, it may be
laying the groundwork to blame Beijing if a deal doesn't
materialize in the spring.
YOUNG