Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07TAIPEI28
2007-01-05 07:56:00
CONFIDENTIAL
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:  

KMT CHAIRMAN MA SINGS THE BLUES

Tags:  PGOV TW PINR 
pdf how-to read a cable
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3622
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 6154
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 8362
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 8341
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RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 5588
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
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RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/USPACOM HONOLULU HI
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000028 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 1/05/2032
TAGS: PGOV TW PINR
SUBJECT: KMT CHAIRMAN MA SINGS THE BLUES

REF: A. TAIPEI 04096


B. TAIPEI 03890

Classified By: AIT Acting Director Robert S. Wang,
Reason 1.4 (b/d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000028

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 1/05/2032
TAGS: PGOV TW PINR
SUBJECT: KMT CHAIRMAN MA SINGS THE BLUES

REF: A. TAIPEI 04096


B. TAIPEI 03890

Classified By: AIT Acting Director Robert S. Wang,
Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: The opposition KMT's poorer than expected
performance in key mayoral elections on December 9 was a
minor setback for KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou, giving critics
an opening to raise doubts about his leadership and ability
to appeal to Taiwan's southern voters. The KMT kept control
of Taipei as expected and strengthened its representation in
the Taipei and Kaohsiung city councils. The party, however,
proved unable to defeat the ruling DPP in its southern base
of Kaohsiung despite Ma's heavy campaigning and a string of
corruption investigations plaguing President Chen, his
family, and advisors. Ma, whose term as Taipei mayor ended
on December 25, will now focus on leading the KMT into the
2007 legislative election and securing his party's nomination
for the 2008 presidential race. End Summary.

Ma's Wake-up Call
--------------


2. (C) The Kuomintang's (KMT) poorer than expected
performance in key mayoral elections on December 9 was a
setback for KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou, giving critics an
opening to raise doubts about his leadership and ability to
attract enough Taiwanese votes from southern Taiwan to win
the presidency in 2008. Ma himself declared shortly after
the election that the KMT had performed adequately and
reached a "draw" with the DPP. KMT Organization Department
Director Liao Feng-te suggested to AIT that the KMT actually
won three of the four races on December 9--it gained a
"technical" victory by winning the Taipei mayoral race and
strengthened its control over both Taipei and Kaohsiung city
councils. The narrow loss in the Kaohsiung mayoral contest,
however, has been widely seen as a personal setback for Ma,
who made himself very visible in campaigning for the KMT
mayoral candidate, acknowledged Liao. Despite a razor-thin
loss in Kaohsiung by KMT candidate Huang Chun-ying, Ma is now
under pressure to review the party's election strategy and
grass roots operations, Liao explained, because of concerns
about the KMT's ability to attract southern votes in the
upcoming 2007 legislative and 2008 presidential elections.



3. (C) Analyzing the KMT strategy in Kaohsiung, Liao
suggested that Ma's "direct sales" approach, which bypassed
local KMT grassroots leaders in an effort to appeal directly
to voters, alienated local party bosses and could have cost
the KMT the race. Although Ma's approach is effective in
northern urban areas like Taipei, Liao asserted it has
limited appeal in the south, where personal outreach to local
leaders is a more effective method of mobilizing the party
base and ensuring voter turnout. KMT Legislator Lai
Shih-pao, a strong Ma supporter, acknowledged some problems
with Ma's Kaohsiung strategy and campaigning style, but
pointed to the relative passivity and weakness of KMT
candidate Huang Chun-ying as the major factor in allowing the
DPP to pull out a narrow victory.


4. (C) Soochow University Professor Emile Sheng (Chih-jen)
suggested that over the long-term the Kaohsiung loss could
prove a boon to the KMT. The sense of crisis, Sheng
predicted, would prompt Ma and the party leadership from
becoming over-confident and avoid making the same mistakes in
upcoming elections. A victory in Kaohsiung, on the other
hand, might have encouraged the KMT to become "cocky." Ma
can no longer take the party's presidential nomination for
granted, Sheng surmised, even though party rival Wang
Jin-pyng and KMT Honorary Chairman Lien Chan do not pose an
immediate threat to Ma's front-runner status.

Leading the Pan-Blue Camp
--------------


5. (C) KMT Chairman Ma, whose term as Taipei mayor ended on
December 25, now faces the demanding task of leading the KMT
into the 2007 legislative election. The shift to
single-member districts and halving the legislature in 2007

TAIPEI 00000028 002 OF 003


means that competition among incumbents for a seat in the new
113-member legislature will be fierce. Ma's initial attempt
in December to forge a formal coalition with the smaller
People First Party (PFP) met strong resistance from a vocal
block of KMT legislators in the party's Central Standing
Committee (CSC). Ma's proposal, which aims to minimize
internecine pan-Blue competition, was rejected at two weekly
CSC meetings and then moved to a party sub-committee for
"further deliberation," a face-saving move that called into
question Ma's leadership of the party. Ma, however, gained a
small victory on January 3 when the CSC unanimously passed a
watered-down version that endorsed the concept of KMT-PFP
cooperation but left the more sensitive issue of how to
coordinate candidate nominations between the two parties for
future discussion.


6. (C) According to KMT Legislator Ting Shou-Chung,
opponents of Ma's conciliatory approach to the PFP have
argued that any concessions will come largely at the expense
of KMT legislators. KMT Legislator Hsu Chung-hsiung, one of
the most vocal opponents of KMT-PFP cooperation in the CSC,
told AIT that in Taiwan's "electoral jungle" the KMT can no
longer afford to make "compromises" with an increasing
marginalized PFP, weakened by a rash of defections to the KMT
and the abysmal performance of PFP Chairman James Soong in
the Taipei mayoral race. Lai Shih-pao predicted that the
upcoming legislative election will "finish off" Soong and the
PFP, which no longer pose a major threat to the KMT. (Note:
Taoyuan Magistrate Eric Chu told ADIR that Soong is "already
in his political grave." End Note.) Lai explained that Ma,
nevertheless, is making conciliatory overtures to keep Soong
from running in the 2008 presidential election and avoid
reopening the pan-Blue split that gave President Chen a
narrow victory in 2000.


7. (C) The PFP, for its part, sees its leverage over the
KMT dwindling and will be facing an uphill battle to survive
as a viable political party after 2007. PFP Legislator
Vincent Chang (Hsien-yao),who is close to Soong, told AIT
that his party has "no choice" but to work with the KMT ahead
of the elections because PFP supporters demand it. The PFP
would risk further alienating those supporters by working
with the DPP to pass legislation on the recovery of the KMT's
party assets, the only major lever the PFP enjoys over the
KMT, added Chang. Despite Soong's declared intention to
"withdraw" from politics on December 9, Chang expects Soong
will continue negotiations with Ma to secure PFP legislative
and future government positions should the KMT regain power
in 2008.


8. (C) Given the strong opposition within the KMT and the
increasingly constrained bargaining position of the PFP,
KMT-PFP relations are likely to muddle along barring any
unexpected breakthroughs. KMT Director Liao suggested to AIT
that for the foreseeable future the KMT will continue its
informal cooperation with the PFP on policy and electoral
issues, allowing PFP members to rejoin the KMT ahead of
legislative primaries early next year. Already 3 of the 22
PFP legislators have initiated procedures to regain their KMT
membership and Liao expects that another handful could rejoin
in order to compete in the KMT primaries.

Wang on the Offensive?
--------------


9. (C) In the wake of the loss in Kaohsiung, (KMT)
Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng appears to be laying the
groundwork to challenge Ma for the party's presidential
nomination in the spring. Most party insiders and outside
observers, however, still see a Wang candidacy as only a
remote possibility. Wang's supporters have been pointing to
the Kaohsiung loss as evidence that Ma, who was born in Hong
Kong and is not a native speaker of Taiwanese, lacks
resonance with southern Taiwan's ethnic voters in order to
bolster Wang's nomination prospects, Director Liao told AIT.
Wang himself has also asked James Soong to remain active in
politics and has allied with KMT Honorary Chairman Lien Chan
as a means to maintain pressure from the deep Blues and keep
Ma off balance. Legislator Hsu, a Wang supporter,
nevertheless characterized Wang's maneuvering as "political

TAIPEI 00000028 003 OF 003


ploys" that, in the end, would only be of limited use in
elevating Wang's stature.


10. (C) National Taipei University Professor and close Wang
confidant Herman Chiang (Min-chin) told AIT that Wang's
ultimate objective is to force Ma into accepting him as the
KMT Vice Presidential running mate in 2008. Only by
presenting himself as a potential challenger, explained
Chiang, can Wang reach this objective since he holds
relatively limited influence with KMT elites who do not want
to see a Wang-led presidential ticket. KMT Legislator Lai
suggested that despite the ill-will between Ma and Wang
engendered by their competition for KMT chairmanship in 2005,
Ma is now open to the possibility of choosing Wang as a
running-mate. Ma's thinking has changed, explained Lai,
because he is facing potential problems with the mayoral
special budget investigation and is calculating that an
alliance with Wang would help draw more support from ethnic
Taiwanese voters, diminishing the effectiveness of the DPP's
"ethnic card."

Ma's Achilles' Heel
--------------


11. (C) Ma, long known for his squeaky-clean image, found
himself unexpectedly under investigation for the alleged
misuse of a mayoral office expense account last November.
Although Taipei city prosecutors questioned Ma on several
occasions and have indicted a staff assistant responsible for
handling Ma's expense account submissions for the alleged
misuse, no decision on whether or not to indict Ma has yet
been made. KMT Legislator Lai told AIT that he expects an
announcement by the prosecutor's office in the coming weeks
and predicted that Ma will be cleared of any wrongdoing.
Nonetheless, Lai acknowledged that Ma's reputation for
competence and cleanliness has been tarnished by his poor
handling of the crisis, but surmised it would probably not
affect Ma's presidential chances. Lai assessed that in the
unlikely event of an indictment, however, Ma would likely
follow through with his promise to resign from his KMT
chairmanship, leaving the party to struggle with the awkward
issue of whether and how to back Ma for a 2008 presidential
bid.

Comment
--------------


12. (C) The electoral loss in Kaohsiung and the ensuing
strong criticism and challenges from Ma's detractors appear
unlikely to significantly slow down Ma's momentum toward
winning his party's presidential nomination this spring.
Despite Wang's maneuverings, Ma still remains the KMT's best
hope to retake the Presidential Office in 2008, barring
further revelations or a formal indictment from the ongoing
investigation into Ma's expense account from his tenure as
Taipei mayor. Having now stepped down as Taipei's mayor, Ma
will also most certainly venture more frequently out of the
capital to the south and rural counties to build up his
relationships with local KMT leaders at the grassroots.
WANG