LEGISLATIVE ELECTION PREVIEW: KMT HOPES FOR BIG

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002656

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2017
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: LEGISLATIVE ELECTION PREVIEW: KMT HOPES FOR BIG
WIN IN HAKKA-MAJORITY NORTHWESTERN TAIWAN


Classified By: AIT Deputy Director Robert S. Wang,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: With two weeks to go before the Legislative
Yuan (LY) elections, the KMT appears likely to win at least 7
and probably more of the 10 seats in the three counties and
one city of Blue stronghold northwestern Taiwan.
Traditionally, the KMT receives strong support from ethnic
Hakkas, who are heavily concentrated in this region. DPP
candidates are competitive only in four districts, including
two coastal districts where there are large numbers of ethnic
Taiwanese. The DPP hopes to eke out a small number of
victories in this region to reduce the gap in the expected
overall KMT victory in the January 12 LY elections. Two or
three seats would be considered a strong showing for the DPP.
End Summary.


2. (SBU) This cable, one of a series of regional reports in
the run-up to the January 12 legislative elections, includes
information from meetings with party officials, local
candidates, and media reports. Paras 3-4 discuss the
northwestern region of Taiwan as a whole. Paras 5-8 provide
general capsules on each county and city, followed by details
on the individual district contests in the two counties where
more than one seat is at stake.

Northwestern Taiwan: A Longtime Blue Stronghold
-------------- --


3. (C) With just over two weeks before voters in Taiwan head
to the polls to choose the next legislature, the KMT is
hoping to build on strong support from ethnic Hakka voters in
northwestern Taiwan to win a decisive majority of the 10
seats up for grabs in the newly drawn election districts.
Northwestern Taiwan comprises Taoyuan, Hsinchu, and Miaoli
Counties and Hsinchu City. Close to Taipei, Taoyuan and
Hsinchu have thriving economies with strong high-tech
industrial sectors. By contrast, the largely rural and
agricultural Miaoli is one of Taiwan's poorest counties.


4. (C) One defining characteristic of the region is its
large Hakka population, which exceeds 80 percent in broad
swathes of the inland, more mountainous areas. Hakka account
for 41 percent of the population in Taoyuan County, 70
percent in Hsinchu County, 30 percent in Hsinchu City, and 67
percent in Miaoli County. The DPP draws its support in these
four districts mainly from Taiwanese (Hoklo) voters.
Historic rivalries and cultural/linguistic differences
between the Hakka and Taiwanese have enabled the KMT to
traditionally count on strong support from the Hakka. The
pan-Blue camp has parlayed Hakka support into electoral
success, winning 16 of the 23 seats in the region in the 2004
legislative elections, and winning all four of the county
magistrate and mayoral races in 2005. The DPP hopes to chip
away at the KMT advantage in the region by mobilizing
Taiwanese voters and increasing its support from Hakka
communities through stepped up grassroots work. While most
inland areas are considered "safe" KMT districts, DPP
candidates are viable contenders in the coastal areas that
have higher concentrations of ethnic Taiwanese.

Taoyuan County (6 Seats): KMT Hopes for Big Win
-------------- --


5. (C) With just under 2 million residents, Taoyuan County
is Taiwan's third largest administrative district, and its 6
legislative seats rank third after Taipei county (12 seats)
and Taipei city (8 seats) in the new single-member district
electoral system. In previous LY elections, the pan-Blue
camp has enjoyed a strong advantage over the pan-Greens,
winning 8 of 13 seats in 2001 and 9 of 13 in 2004. The
pan-Blue ticket captured 55 percent of the vote in the 2004
presidential election, while President Chen Shui-bian won 45
percent. According to DPP supporters, the Blue-Green split
in the county has shrunk slightly in recent years, narrowing
from 65-35 to 60-40. The more competitive races are in
districts closer to the coast, while the two most inland
districts (5 and 6) are considered safe KMT territory.


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Details on Taoyuan County Contests:
--------------

-- District 1, which has a strong Blue majority, pits DPP
incumbent Lee Chen-nan against KMT incumbent Chen Ken-te.
Both candidates started their political careers in the county
council before launching successful bids for LY seats. In
the 2004 LY elections, pan-Blue candidates won 56 percent of
the local vote and pan-Green candidates won 42 percent.
However, DPP officials contend the current gap between Chen
and Lee is small.

-- District 2, which is on the coast, is the only Green
majority electoral district in Taoyuan County. DPP and KMT
local officials agree that DPP incumbent legislator Kuo
Jung-Tsung currently leads KMT candidate Liao Cheng-ching. A
local KMT official said Liao, drafted only a few months ago
to run in the district after losing in the party primary in
district 5, is catching up and hopes to win votes from the
Hakka community due to his Hakka ethnicity.

-- District 3 is another electoral district where the DPP has
a fighting chance to win a seat. The race between DPP
incumbent Peng Tien-fu and KMT incumbent Wu Chih-yang is
being closely watched across the island because Wu is the son
of KMT Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung. Although Wu Chih-yang has
strong name recognition and is Hakka, he lacks the deep local
connections of his DPP rival, as the Wu family has long
resided in Taipei due to Wu Poh-hsiung's career in the KMT
leadership. By contrast, Peng has strong personal
connections and grassroots support, having been active in
political circles in the county for 20 years.

-- District 4 is a contest between two incumbent legislators:
Huang Tsung-yuan of the DPP and the KMT's Yang Li-huan. The
local county chairmen from both parties said Yang is
currently in the lead, but the DPP chair added Huang has
recently narrowed the gap. Huang joined the DPP after being
expelled from the Taiwan Solidarity Union in October.

-- District 5, with a large Blue majority, is expected to go
to 6-time incumbent KMT legislator Chu Feng-chih. Local DPP
chair suggested that playing up ethnic divisions might boost
DPP candidate Lee Yueh-chin's chances against Chu, whose
parents are from the mainland.

-- District 6 will likely be an easy victory for KMT
legislator Sun Ta-chien. The DPP nominated former PFP
legislator Chiu Chuang-liang to contest Sun's bid, but Chiu's
repeated changes of party affiliation have alienated many
voters.

Hsinchu City (1 Seat): Seat Likely to Go to KMT
-------------- --


6. (C) Hsinchu City is a Blue majority district where
veteran KMT legislator Lu Hsueh-chang is expected to defeat
DPP newcomer Chung Hung-huei. One reason for the longtime
Blue advantage in Hsinchu City is the high concentration of
traditionally Blue-stronghold military communities. DPP and
KMT officials agreed that Lu -- formerly of the People First
Party (PFP) -- maintains a healthy lead over Chung, which the
DPP put at 10 percent. A telling sign of the KMT advantage
in Hsinchu is that DPP heavyweight and legislative caucus
whip Ker Chien-ming, who held one of the city's three seats
under the former multiple member system, has chosen to run as
a party list candidate rather than trying to compete for the
city's single seat under the new election format.

Hsinchu County (1 Seat): DPP Hoping for a Split Vote
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Roughly 70 percent of Hsinchu County's population of
490,000 is Hakka, and Blue supporters outnumber Green
supporters by nearly a 2-1 margin. Three candidates are
contesting the county's lone seat. Local KMT officials
predict that incumbent legislator Chiu Ching-chun will win
more than half the vote. The DPP is not fielding a
candidate, who would have little chance of winning this

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heavily Blue district. Instead, the DPP is backing Hakka
Party candidate Yu Yu-chih, hoping Yu can win if independent
candidate Hsu Hsin-ying is able to draw enough Blue votes
away from Chiu.

Miaoli County (2 Seats): DPP Could Take One Seat
-------------- ---


8. (C) Miaoli is the least developed county in the region,
and its economy is dominated by agriculture and tourism. With
a population of 560,000, Miaoli is divided into two
districts. District 1 along the coast is dominated by ethnic
Taiwanese; this is where the DPP has a chance of winning.
District 2 covers the inland, more mountainous areas and has
one of the highest concentrations of Hakkas in Taiwan.

Details on Miaoli Races:
--------------

-- District 1, with a high proportion of ethnic Taiwanese
residents, represents one of the DPP's best chances for
winning an LY seat in the region. The local DPP chairman
told AIT that DPP candidate Du Wen-ching currently enjoys a
10 percent lead according to internal polling, and a KMT
official confirmed that KMT candidate Li I-ting is trailing.
A two-time incumbent, Du enjoys the support of several local
factions, which have long played an important role in
elections in Miaoli. In past elections, however, voters in
the district have generally favored pan-Blue candidates.

-- District 2, with a two-thirds Blue majority, is a contest
between two KMT candidates, Ho Chih-hui and Hsu Yao-chang.
The KMT Miaoli secretary general said that although efforts
to unify the party behind a single candidate have been
unsuccessful, he was confident one of the two would win due
to the high concentration of Hakkas in the district. The
local DPP chairman said the party hoped to take advantage of
a split in the Blue vote, but admitted that internal party
polling put support for DPP candidate Chan Yun-si at only 10
percent, well behind the two KMT contenders.
YOUNG