Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07TAIPEI2628
2007-12-19 22:19:00
CONFIDENTIAL
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:  

SQUABBLE OVER VOTING PROCEDURES; PROSPECTS FOR DPP

Tags:  PGOV PREL TW 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 TAIPEI 002628 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: SQUABBLE OVER VOTING PROCEDURES; PROSPECTS FOR DPP
UN REFERENDUM

REF: A. TAIPEI 2588

B. TAIPEI 2503

C. TAIPEI 2116

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 TAIPEI 002628

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: SQUABBLE OVER VOTING PROCEDURES; PROSPECTS FOR DPP
UN REFERENDUM

REF: A. TAIPEI 2588

B. TAIPEI 2503

C. TAIPEI 2116

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: The DPP central government and KMT local
governments continue to argue over the procedures to be used
for voting in legislative elections and two referenda on
January 12. The KMT fears that the DPP's "one-step"
procedure, under which voters cast election and referendum
ballots at the same time, will set a precedent that could
hurt KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou's chances in the March
presidential election. However, the KMT faces pressure to
compromise both from the DPP government and from within its
own camp, to ensure the dispute does not interfere with
smooth elections in which the KMT hopes to win a major
victory.


2. (C) Summary Continued: Some recent polling by the KMT and
by an outside pollster suggests that public support for the
UN referendum has declined since September and that the
referendum is unlikely to meet the required participation
threshold of 50 percent of eligible voters. On the other
hand, DPP Secretary General Cho Jung-tai recently told DDIR
that he expects more than ten million voters to support the
referendum, which would exceed the participation threshold by
a significant margin. Because the DPP's big push on the UN
referendum is expected to come only in the late stages of the
presidential campaign, current predictions are not a reliable
guide to the referendum's prospects on March 22. End Summary.

DPP-KMT Dispute over Voting Procedures
--------------


3. (U) The DPP-controlled Central Election Commission (CEC)
on November 16 adopted the "one-step" voting process for the
Legislative Yuan (LY) elections on January 12 (Ref B). Under
the one-step process, voters entering polling stations on
election day first go to a table where they can pick up two
legislative ballots, one for district legislators and the
other for party at-large seats. Voters may then, if they
choose, proceed to a second table to take ballots for the
DPP-initiated referendum on recovering KMT "ill-gotten" party
assets and/or the KMT-supported anti-corruption referendum.

After obtaining the desired ballots, voters enter a voting
booth to mark their ballots in secret and then go to another
set of tables with four ballot boxes, one for each ballot, to
cast their votes. The CEC also decided on November 16 that
ballots deposited in the wrong box will still be considered
valid.


4. (U) The KMT refused to accept the CEC's November 16
decision on the one-step voting process, and continues to
insist it will use a "two-step" process in the 18 counties
and cities governed by pan-Blue magistrates and mayors.
Under the two step process, voters pick up only the two
legislative ballots when they first enter the polling
station, and they then go to a voting booth, mark the
legislative ballots in secret, and cast them in the
legislative election ballot boxes. Only after completing
voting in the legislative elections do voters have the option
of going to a second area in the polling station to pick up
one or both referendum ballots, which they then mark and cast
in a separate set of voting booths and ballot boxes.


5. (SBU) Since November 16, the CEC has been trying to
persuade local governments and local election commissions
controlled by the KMT to comply with its one-step decision.
CEC officials have offered to consult and have made some
"compromises," and they have also threatened to punish
election workers who violate CEC directives. Despite
occasional hints of internal differences and wavering, the
KMT is holding out so far. On December 4, the CEC held a
dinner for local election commission heads aimed at
convincing pan-Blue governed counties and cities to accept
the one-step voting procedure. However, Taitung was the only
Blue county to send a representative to the dinner.

TAIPEI 00002628 002 OF 005




6. (SBU) The same evening, the CEC announced that large
signs would be posted outside polling stations on election
day, reminding voters they have the right not to participate
in the referenda. The CEC also announced it would require
polling stations to separate the tables distributing the
legislative and referenda ballots by 50 cm or more. Despite
these "compromises," the KMT continues to insist that it will
use the two-step voting process in the counties and cities it
governs. The CEC has proposed further consultations with
KMT-controlled local election commissions. Though they
subsequently retreated, President Chen and other DPP leaders
raised the specter of postponed elections should there be
major problems, presumably to pressure the KMT into
compliance.

DPP Taking a Tough Line
--------------


7. (C) Under questioning by a KMT legislator on December 17,
CEC Secretary General Teng Tien-yu said he believed election
results would be valid even if held under the two-step
format. Teng's "personal" view was immediately contradicted
by DPP leaders and his boss, CEC Chairman Chang Cheng-hsiung.
Chang announced at a press conference on December 18 that
local election officials who violate the one-step procedure
could face criminal prosecution. He also said that the CEC
would determine within a week after the election whether the
results of elections and referenda held under the two-step
format were valid. DPP leaders, including President Chen,
have been even blunter, insisting that two-step voting is
illegal and invalid. While it is not clear how or even if
this issue will be resolved by January 12, a number of
pro-Blue contacts have told AIT they expect that the KMT will
back down in the end. On a recent talk show, a DPP
legislator also predicted that the KMT will eventually yield
under pressure from its own LY candidates, who will not want
any problems on election day that could possibly compromise
their electoral chances.


8. (C) The November 16 CEC decision on "one-step" voting
applies only to the January 12 LY elections. The low turnout
rate in legislative elections (on the order of 60 percent)
makes it highly unlikely that either referendum being
considered on January 12 will meet the participation
threshold, regardless of voting procedures. The reason for
the current stiff battle between the KMT and DPP over the
voting procedure issue is that both parties view the CEC
decision, if it stands, as establishing a strong precedent
for the voting procedures to be used in the March 22
presidential election.


9. (C) The KMT fears that one-step voting will increase
chances that the DPP UN referendum will pass and, more
important, will hurt Ma Ying-jeou's electoral prospects. In
a recent "leaked" memo, KMT Vice Presidential candidate
Vincent Siew explained that "two-step" voting would make it
difficult for the DPP UN referendum to pass. The KMT may be
hoping to reduce pressure from Beijing and some deep Blues,
who have quietly criticized the KMT for launching a UN
referendum of its own instead of taking a strong stand
against the more objectionable DPP referendum. While the DPP
hopes to pressure the KMT into complying with the CEC's
one-step decision, it may also believe that the continuing
dispute plays into its hands because it takes the spotlight
off economic issues, and enables the DPP to accuse the KMT of
colluding with Beijing in undermining the "democratic"
referendum process.

Voter Participation Requirement to Validate a Referendum
-------------- --------------


10. (U) A referendum in Taiwan has to meet two tests to
pass. The more difficult test, which validates the results
of a referendum, is that more than 50 percent of eligible
voters have to participate in the referendum. Taiwan does
not require voter registration, and the lists of eligible
voters are prepared by the CEC, based on the household
registers maintained by local governments. Current estimates

TAIPEI 00002628 003 OF 005


are that there are roughly 17 million eligible voters. If
more than 50 percent of eligible voters participate in the
referendum, the second test is whether there are more votes
for than against the referendum. In 2004, the KMT boycotted
President Chen's defensive referenda. As a consequence, the
two referenda failed to pass because only 45 percent of
eligible voters participated, even though those who did
participate voted overwhelmingly in favor of the referenda.

How the CEC Counts Voter Participation
--------------


11. (SBU) A CEC official recently explained to AIT how
referendum participation is counted. When voters pick up a
referendum ballot, a mark is made next to their name in the
registry of eligible voters to indicate that they have
already voted. For the purpose of calculating voter
participation toward meeting the 50 percent threshold
requirement, the CEC counts the number of voters who have
taken ballots as indicated in the registry rather than the
number of referendum ballots contained in the ballot boxes.
If voters willfully destroy or walk off with referendum
ballots (violations of Taiwan's election law),they would
still be considered as participating in the referendum and
count toward meeting the threshold. However, if voters
change their minds and return ballots without marking them,
the registry will be corrected and these voters will not
count as having participated in the referendum. CEC
officials have said they expect the number of people taking
referendum ballots but not casting them to be insignificant.


12. (C) CEC election officials have said they will see how
the new system works in the January 12 legislative elections
before deciding on voting procedures for the March 22
presidential election and competing KMT and DPP UN referenda.
In the minds of many DPP strategists, the KMT's insistence
on two-step voting in the 2004 presidential election and
defensive referenda was responsible for the failure of the
referenda to meet the 50 percent participation requirement.
According to President Chen, the two-step process forced
voters to reveal their intentions on the referenda,
compromising the principle of the secret ballot, and in
addition some voters departed the polling stations without
even realizing they could vote on the referenda.
Traditionally, the CEC has used one-step voting for combined
elections, such as the three-in-one 2005 city, county, and
township elections, when voters first picked up multiple
ballots for several different elections and then cast them at
the same time.

Factors Affecting UN Referendum Prospects
--------------


13. (C) A variety of factors will affect the percentage of
eligible voters who participate in the DPP's UN referendum.
These include the election turnout rate, voting procedures,
international reactions, public opinion, and how much emotion
the DPP is able to generate over the referendum on March 22.
A higher presidential election turnout would increase the
referendum participation rate. Since direct presidential
elections were first instituted in 1996, turnout has been 76
percent (1996),83 percent (2000),and 80 percent (2004).
Polling experts we have talked to expect the turnout rate in
2008 to be somewhat lower than in the past three elections,
which, if true, would reduce prospects for passage of the
DPP's UN referendum.

Effects of Voting Procedures and Turnout on DPP Referendum
-------------- --------------


14. (C) Global Views Monthly Polling Center Director Tai
Li-an suggested to AIT that the way in which referendum
ballots are distributed could have a major effect on the DPP
UN referendum's prospects. Polling conducted by his center
in November indicates that both the DPP and KMT UN referenda
would pass if election officials proactively hand the
referendum ballots to voters and the election turnout is 80
percent. However, the participation rate for the DPP
referendum drops from 54 to 28 percent if the voters have to

TAIPEI 00002628 004 OF 005


take the initiative and ask for the referendum ballots. In
designing his categories, Tai probably has in mind the
one-step and two-step voting procedures even though the
correspondence may not be exact.


15. (C) If turnout in the presidential election is only 69
percent, as Tai now predicts, the respective estimated
participation rates for the DPP referendum go down to 43 and
26 percent. In other words, if turnout in the presidential
election is relatively low, the DPP's UN referendum is
unlikely to meet the 50 percent threshold, regardless of
voting procedures. Tai said that support for the DPP
referendum has declined since September. He attributed this
decline to the perception among moderate voters that
President Chen has gone overboard in having all government
ministries focus on the UN referendum to the neglect of
public concerns about the economy, including price hikes.
(Comment: We think it is a bit early to predict turnout
levels for the presidential balloting in March. Many factors
will figure over the next three months in determining how
many voters go to the polls.)


16. (C) In September, Tai delivered a presentation on his
polling at a conference in Hangzhou with leading PRC Taiwan
experts. Tai told AIT that the senior PRC experts he
encountered do not have a good understanding of public
opinion polling in general or of public opinion in democratic
Taiwan. For example, former Taiwan Affairs Office Deputy
Director Wang Zaixi "turned color" when Tai told the
conference that about 60 percent of the Taiwan public believe
that Taiwan is a "normal country." According to Tai, the PRC
had been using a faulty methodology to estimate the prospects
for passage of the DPP's UN referendum. Because they were
expecting the referendum to fail, they were dismayed when Tai
explained to them that the referendum might pass. Tai, who
has since revised his prognostication downward, told us that
he would be attending another conference in China in
December, this time in Beijing.

KMT Sees Reduced Support for UN Referendum . . .
-------------- ---


17. (C) KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou recently
told AIT Chairman Burghardt and the Director that, based on
KMT-commissioned polling from late November, he does not
expect either the DPP or KMT UN referendum to pass (Ref A).
While some polls six months ago indicated that 70 percent of
voters supported the DPP UN referendum, the current
KMT-commissioned polls show that only 20 percent of the
electorate now support the DPP referendum, while another 16
percent endorse the KMT version and 31 percent will likely
abstain from voting on either referendum. (Note: The fact
that 33 percent of those polled are not represented --
possibly because they refused to answer -- underscores the
limited accuracy of polling here.)

. . . But DPP Confident Its Referendum Will Pass
-------------- ---


18. (C) In contrast to Ma's negative prediction, DPP
Secretary General Cho Jung-tai recently told DDIR that he

SIPDIS
expects the party's UN referendum will pass and that more
than 10 million voters will vote for the measure on March 22.
Cho cited the 2.75 million signatures that the DPP secured
for the referendum proposal to support his view. Research
and Development Council Vice Chairman Chen Chun-lin, who
coordinates DPP internal polling, suggested to AIT in late
November that significant numbers of light Blue voters will
cross party lines and vote for the DPP referendum, enabling
the measure to slightly exceed the 50 percent threshold
requirement. Chen believes a significant number of KMT
supporters will vote for both the DPP and KMT referenda.

Comment
--------------


19. (C) The DPP plans to use the UN referendum as a major
voter mobilization tool for the presidential election in
March. As the election draws close, the DPP is very likely

TAIPEI 00002628 005 OF 005


to use strong rhetoric, rallies, and other activities to stir
up the passions of the Green base. The party will also work
to shape a favorable public opinion climate. With three long
months still to go, it is too early to predict whether or not
the DPP will be able to push its UN referendum over the 50
percent participation threshold. It is also too early to
predict whether compromise or confrontation will characterize
referenda voting processes in the January 12 election. But
the signs currently suggest the two parties are groping
toward an outcome that gives each side face while permitting
an orderly process.
YOUNG