ELECTION SNAPSHOT: DPP FIGHTS TO DEFINE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 002592

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2017
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: ELECTION SNAPSHOT: DPP FIGHTS TO DEFINE
PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN AGENDA

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: In the upcoming 2008 presidential election,
the DPP hopes to duplicate the come-from behind victory it
engineered in 2004 by again campaigning on the national
identity issue. Following President Chen's reelection
victory in 2004, the DPP stumbled badly in the 2005 local
elections when the KMT succeeded in refocusing the campaign
agenda on DPP corruption scandals and the fresh image of then
KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou. Tired of eight years of
Blue-Green gridlock and a series of high-level corruption
scandals, the public may be less receptive when asked by the
DPP once again to vote for symbolic rather than practical
causes. However, national identity is a potent emotional
issue in Taiwan and one on which mainlander Ma Ying-jeou is
vulnerable. In addition, DPP candidate Frank Hsieh has a
relatively strong record as former Mayor of Kaohsiung and
Premier, and the ruling party is widely acknowledged to be
stronger at campaigning than the KMT, which has its own
corruption issues. Therefore, despite Ma's current lead in
public opinion polls, the March presidential election is
still up for grabs with 100 days to go. End Summary.


2. (C) Taiwan will hold two major elections over the next
three months: Legislative Yuan (LY) elections on January 12
followed by the presidential election on March 22. The
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP),which has held the
presidency for the past 8 years, has never won control of the
LY, and President Chen Shui-bian will be stepping down after
eight years in office. Expecting to be bested once again in
the upcoming LY elections, the ruling DPP is placing its
hopes on retaining the presidency in an election that pits
former Premier and Kaohsiung Mayor Frank Hsieh against former
KMT Chairman and Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou.


3. (C) In 2004 President Chen eked out a razor-thin
come-from-behind victory over the pan-Blue team of Lien Chan
(KMT) and James Soong (PFP),after he and VP Annette Lu
suffered minor gunshot wounds as they were campaigning the
day before the election. Data from a tracking poll conducted
by respected pollster Tai Li-an, now at Global Views Monthly,
suggests that KMT candidate Lien Chan would have won the 2004
election by several percentage points in the absence of the
gunshot incident. Lien's lead heading into the day prior to
the election reflected President Chen's reputation for poor
performance, corruption allegations, and the edge enjoyed by
Blue supporters over Green supporters in the overall
electorate.


4. (C) While current polling shows Ma leading Hsieh by more
than 10 percentage points, our contacts expect this lead to
gradually narrow as the election draws closer. KMT
supporters, however, continue to outnumber DPP supporters in
the electorate, and President Chen and the DPP government are
beset by even more questions about corruption and
performance. Although Frank Hsieh rather than President Chen
is the candidate this time, the situation the party faces is
similar to 2004, and the DPP believes it must pursue an
aggressive campaign strategy to close the gap. Because of
relative political weakness as well as longstanding party
tradition, the DPP often acts more like an opposition than a
ruling party, choosing, for example, to attack the KMT over
past historical wrongs rather than run on its own record.
Heading into 2008, the DPP wants to maintain control of the
election agenda and is also planning efforts aimed at
generating a late surge to overtake the KMT on election day.



5. (C) The aggressive political style of the DPP, especially
President Chen, coupled with strong reactions by the KMT and
allied parties, has led to increasingly polarized politics in
Taiwan over the past several years. This polarization
becomes especially clear at election time as political
parties stake out confrontational positions to distinguish
themselves, consolidate their base, and undermine opponents.
Other factors contributing to polarization include the
divisiveness of the issues of Taiwan identity and
independence versus unification, the partisan role played by

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many media outlets, and the near annual frequency of major
elections. The recent battle between the central government
and the KMT Taipei city government over renaming the former
Chiang Kai-shek Memorial as "Liberty Square" is a good
example of how the DPP is seemingly able to keep the campaign
agenda focused on identity issues rather than themes favored
by the KMT, such as the economy.


6. (C) Although the DPP and KMT are locked in confrontation,
the two candidates themselves are projecting a more moderate
image to appeal to the center of the political spectrum.
Both Frank Hsieh and Ma Ying-jeou are trying to keep their
distance from the more radical wings within their respective
camps. As Ma and Hsieh carefully avoid taking overly
confrontational positions, the media focuses on those taking
stronger stands. As an AIT contact has pointed out, this
sometimes makes it appear that the presidential election is
between President Chen and the very vocal Taipei Mayor Hau
Lung-bin or even between President Chen and some of the
protesters he has criticized.


7. (C) One reason for President Chen's current activism is
the "cold" election atmosphere, which party officials from
the DPP and KMT as well as several LY candidates attribute
both to a changed LY electoral system that reduces the
effectiveness of media exposure and to voter fatigue.
President Chen Shui-bian, who in October resumed his former
role as DPP chairman, is working hard to raise the campaign
temperature. His strong rhetoric is intended to stir up the
enthusiasm of base supporters, which compensates for
organizational weaknesses, boosts turnout, and helps unify
the DPP's divisive factions.


8. (C) The tireless Chen is widely acknowledged to be the
DPP's strongest campaigner, and his repeated rhetorical
barrages against the KMT help keep the opposition party and
its presidential candidate off balance and on the defensive.
Chen, who timed the latest in a series of anti-Chiang
Kai-shek moves to coincide with International Human Rights
Day on December 10, has published an essay, "Goodbye, Chiang
Kai-shek," underscoring the significance of "democratizing"
the memorial dedicated to the "dictator" Chiang and also
drawing a negative comparison between Chiang and Ma Ying-jeou
without actually naming Ma. Although Chen generally tries to
play themes he thinks will appeal to ethnic Taiwanese, he
sometimes gets carried away, and not all of his strong
rhetoric goes down well in his own camp. Even some DPP
stalwarts were aghast at his attacks on the inscription on
the funeral urn of Ma Ying-jeou's father, who died two years
ago, and at his willingness to raise the specter of martial
law in response to a dispute over technical voting
procedures. (Note: Chen uncharacteristically backed down on
the martial law theme a day after raising it, presumably due
to sharp negative reaction within his own circles.)


9. (C) DPP leaders, especially President Chen, want the 2008
presidential election to be about national identity, which
includes anti-KMT and independence-related themes as well as
cross-Strait relations. Running for reelection in 2004,
President Chen promised name changes and a new constitution
and he also held Taiwan's first national referenda on
political issues. Both the DPP and KMT believe Chen's
"defensive referenda" contributed to his victory in 2004.
Following a very similar strategy for the 2008 election, the
DPP is now promoting a campaign and referendum to join the UN
under the name "Taiwan." A DPP official told AIT that,
during an island-wide meeting of campaign cadre in October,
top party leaders stressed the importance of the UN
referendum as the central theme of the DPP presidential
campaign. The party leaders predicted that the DPP's UN
referendum would be much more effective in mobilizing voters
in 2008 than the defensive referenda had been in 2004.


10. (C) Campaigning on independence-related themes draws
media attention and negative KMT and PRC reactions, which
help consolidate the DPP base. The DPP also pushes Taiwan
identity themes to drive wedges between Taiwanese and
mainlander factions within the pan-Blue. Divisions within
the pan-Blue over such issues are demonstrated by the

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controversies over whether to downplay the party's policies
supporting one China and unification, and its emphasis on the
role of Chiang Kai-shek. Established KMT policies on these
issues are popular with Deep Blue mainlanders but not with
many of the party's Taiwanese members and supporters.


11. (C) That the DPP chooses to campaign on controversial
national identity issues during presidential elections is not
surprising, since Taiwan independence is the party's
long-term goal. In addition, emotional appeals work well in
Taiwan politics, making national identity and related
overtones such as past Taiwanese suffering and victimization
at the hands of KMT mainlanders highly effective tools for
voter mobilization. For this reason, the DPP is playing up
the February 28, 1947 incident -- which very conveniently
falls less than one month ahead of the presidential election
-- and its campaign to discredit Chiang Kai-shek. In 2004,
the pan-Green island-wide hand-in-hand rally on February 28
was a great success, and our contacts have told us the DPP
will try to duplicate this success with another scenario next
February. The DPP believes its advocacy of Taiwan identity
enjoys wide and growing support among the Taiwanese public,
and it hopes the KMT's dealings with China will make this
issue a fatal vulnerability for mainlander Ma Ying-jeou.


12. (C) In pushing the envelope on independence-related
issues, the DPP tries to avoid going too far because it
realizes from previous experiences that the party will be
punished at the polls if voters perceive it as radical. The
DPP paved the way for Chen's initial election in 2000 by
toning down its stance on independence: stating that Taiwan
is already an independent state, whose current name is the
"ROC," replacing its earlier call for a referendum to
establish an independent "Republic of Taiwan." In September,
Frank Hsieh and President Chen, looking toward the 2008
presidential election, successfully blocked an effort by
then-party Chairman Yu Shyi-kun and the Deep Green to return
the DPP to the more radical pro-independence position it held
in the past.


13. (C) KMT strategists realize that Ma's strong mainlander
identity is a liability. With their help, Ma has worked to
repackage himself by stumping in local communities, speaking
Taiwanese, and even wearing clothing designed to make him
look less mainlander and more Taiwanese. Also, the KMT is
trying to present itself as a Taiwan-first party, with ads
that use the Taiwanese vernacular and delete the word "China"
from the name "China Kuomintang." In contrast to previous
elections, when the KMT rejected the Taiwan identity themes
promoted by the DPP, the KMT has now adjusted its strategy
and is focused on blunting the effectiveness of DPP identity
campaigning. When the DPP announced a UN referendum, the KMT
came up with its own version, and the KMT also mimicked DPP
campaign activities related to the referendum, including a
rally and a round-the-island torch relay (the KMT countered
with a bicycle ride). A KMT official told AIT that his
party's UN referendum is intended to minimize its losses to
the DPP on an issue that is key to the DPP.


14. (C) The KMT is outclassed by the DPP in political
communication and campaigning, a KMT official readily
acknowledged to AIT. Traditionally, the KMT makes up for
this weakness with stronger local organizational
capabilities, the party official noted. But KMT presidential
candidate Ma Ying-jeou is taking a new "direct sales"
approach that capitalizes on public and media appeal rather
than the KMT machine. KMT party work with local
organizations continues behind the scenes, however. Ma's
go-it-alone approach means that his personal campaign team,
party headquarters and the KMT LY caucus are often out of
synch, resulting in gaffes such as the temporary removal of
the "1992 consensus" and "unification" from a party document
and failure to include a key Taiwanese supporter of Ma in the
party's at-large legislative candidate list.


15. (C) While DPP leaders focus on Taiwan identity, the KMT
hopes to train the spotlight on economic issues and DPP
corruption. Charging the DPP with corruption and
incompetence, the KMT argues that its past record proves it

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can manage the economy better than the DPP. According to the
KMT, South Korea has outdistanced Taiwan in recent years
because of poor performance by a DPP administration more
interested in ideology than good governance. In addition, Ma
is highlighting the KMT promise to speedily open expanded
economic links with China, including direct cross-Strait
flights.


16. (C) Citing its own statistics, lists of projects, and
Frank Hsieh's record as Kaohsiung mayor, the DPP defends its
performance and blames the KMT for blocking some important
projects in the legislature. Frank Hsieh has presented his
own cross-Strait and other economic plans, many of which
sound similar to those of Ma, though with greater emphasis on
social welfare and environmental protection. Differentiating
himself from Ma, Hsieh has argued that Ma's plans would
compromise Taiwan's longer term interests by acquiescing to
PRC positions on cross-Strait issues and opening without
adequate regulation.


17. (C) Ma's overall goal is to beat the DPP by focusing on
the economy, while minimizing his losses on Taiwan identity.
Hsieh, however, is trying to make his economic policies sound
the same as Ma's, a pro-Green scholar recently suggested to
AIT. If there is little difference between the two
candidates on the economy, he explained, the election will
become a contest over identity as the DPP prefers. The
recent move to change Chiang Kai-shek Memorial to Liberty
Square well fits the DPP strategy of centering the election
battle on the identity issue. KMT resistance to the
government's move seems to have played into the hands of the
ruling party. It has enabled the DPP to argue that Ma and
other KMT leaders are nostalgic for the authoritarian period,
because they favor the symbol of a "dictator," Chiang
Kai-shek, over freedom and democracy. With more than three
months to go to election day, the 2008 Taiwan presidential
race promises to be hard-fought down to the wire.
YOUNG