KMT VICE CHAIRMAN CHIANG PIN-KUNG ON MA'S JAPAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002537

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL JA TW
SUBJECT: KMT VICE CHAIRMAN CHIANG PIN-KUNG ON MA'S JAPAN
VISIT, CAMPAIGN WORRIES, UN REFERENDUM


Classified By: Deputy Director Robert S. Wang,
Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary: In a meeting with the Deputy Director on
November 26, KMT Vice Chairman Chiang Pin-kung, a senior
advisor to KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou, asserted
that Ma was able to convince Japanese leaders during his
recent trip that he is not "anti-Japan" and seeks to expand
bilateral cooperation. Conceding that DPP candidate Frank
Hsieh is well-liked in Japan, Chiang argued the DPP
independence agenda will limit Hsieh's ability to deliver the
stable cross-Strait relationship that Japan wants. In the
coming months, Ma will focus on the legislative and
presidential campaigns and is unlikely to travel abroad
again. Chiang noted KMT concerns for Ma's physical security
as he campaigns around the island. He also urged the U.S. to
use concrete measures to signal displeasure with President
Chen over the DPP UN referendum. End Summary.

Japan Trip A Success
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2. (C) According to Chiang, Ma convinced his Japanese
counterparts that he is neither "anti-" nor "pro-Japan," but
sincerely committed to strengthening bilateral economic
relations, especially in the technology sector. Ma mentioned
Taiwan's desire for a free trade agreement with Japan, Chiang
added, but no one in the KMT considers this likely for the
foreseeable future. Instead, Ma and others in the KMT are
focused on attracting Japanese investment to Taiwan. Chiang
said Ma also reassured Japanese policymakers that, if elected
president, he would make Taiwan a regional "peacemaker," and
not a "troublemaker."


3. (C) Chiang noted that the Japanese media and political
elites had suspected Ma of harboring anti-Japan sentiments
because Ma has claimed the disputed Diaoyutai (Senkaku)
Islands for Taiwan, and has criticized Japan for committing
human rights violations in the past. This suspicion
manifested itself during Ma's 2006 visit, when he encountered
hostile questions from journalists and Japanese officials.
This time around, Chiang continued, Ma received a much warmer
welcome, meeting with senior legislators from the LDP and
DPJ, former Prime Minister Mori, and exchanging remarks at a
function with MOFA Six-Party talks negotiator Kenichiro
Sasae. Ma's promise to forego "posturing" over the Diaoyutai
in favor of negotiations was particularly well-received,
Chiang added.

Hsieh Handicapped By Independence Agenda
--------------


4. (C) According to Chiang, DPP presidential candidate Frank
Hsieh (Chang-ting) enjoys a good reputation in Japan because
he was educated there. Nonetheless, Chiang predicted Hsieh
will face tough questions over his ability to improve
Taiwan's relations with China when he visits Japan in
December. Although Hsieh has promised if elected to be more
pragmatic than his predecessor in dealing with China, he has
not distanced himself from the DPP's independence agenda, the
pursuit of which is antithetical to the improved cross-Strait
relations Japan wants. (Note: Japan Interchange Association
Director-General Koichi Ito told AIT today, November 28, that
Ma's visit was widely viewed in Japan as quite successful,
and that this has stirred concern in Hsieh's camp, which is
now redoubling its efforts to raise the profile of Hsieh's
upcoming visit to Japan in mid-December; reported septel.)

No More Trips For Ma
--------------


5. (C) In response to the Deputy Director's question about
Ma's future travel plans, Chiang said that Ma is busy
campaigning for KMT legislative candidates and, with just
four months before the presidential election, is unlikely to
go abroad again. He has, in any event, already visited "all
the important spots." Chiang also ruled out a second visit
to the U.S., "since Ma had already been there."

Campaign Worries

TAIPEI 00002537 002 OF 002


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6. (C) Ma's long-stay campaign definitely increased his
popularity in central and southern Taiwan, Chiang claimed,
though he conceded the results may have been only temporary.
Many voters remain undecided and have adopted a
"wait-and-see" attitude because they are anxious about their
personal financial situations. Anxious voters are more
likely to vote with their hearts than with their heads,
Chiang suggested, leaving them more vulnerable to DPP
campaign "tricks." He mentioned the KMT is considering
inviting election observers from the U.S. and Japan to
monitor the upcoming legislative and presidential elections.


7. (C) Chiang worried that "anything can happen "in the final
months of the presidential campaign, adding that the KMT's
"top priority" is preventing a physical attack against Ma as
he travels around the island campaigning. Chiang asserted
that given President Chen's character, he would not rule out
the possibility that Chen would declare martial law in order
to postpone or invalidate the presidential election, but
added that he expected Chen and the DPP to resort to other,
less drastic measures first. If Chen were to declare martial
law, Chiang claimed, neither the military nor the judiciary
would oppose him, since both are now headed by Chen
appointees.

Urges U.S. to Push Harder Against UN Referendum
-------------- --


8. (C) Chiang told the Deputy Director that public support
for the DPP UN referendum had decreased slightly following
U.S. criticism. While verbal opposition has been helpful,
Chiang said, the U.S. should to take more concrete measures,
e.g., regarding visit requests, to dissuade Chen. The KMT
cannot sidestep the UN referendum issue, Chiang argued,
because public support for the idea is still very high, and
although the KMT is exploring the possibility of both sides
withdrawing their respective UN referenda, this is very
unlikely to happen. Therefore, he said, the 18 KMT-led city
and county governments will stand their ground in opposition
to the "one-step" balloting process ordered by the
DPP-controlled Central Election Commission, even though it
could increase domestic political tensions.


9. (C) Chiang noted that he has visited the Mainland several
times over the past year to help Taiwan businesses (Taishang)
operating there resolve disputes and secure increased legal
protection. Chiang claimed to be involved in all facets of
Ma's presidential campaign, but noted that recently his
primary duty has been to raise funds and solicit votes for Ma
from among the Taishang.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Like a number of our other KMT interlocutors, Chiang
appears to be guardedly optimistic about Ma's campaign but
also very nervous and suspicious of last-minute "surprises"
by the DPP, even to the extent of its employing violence. On
this occasion, Chiang also seemed a bit more vehement in his
comments about the DPP administration, in one instance
calling it a "bandit regime" that has usurped government
powers for its own interests.

Bio Note
--------------


11. (U) Chiang Pin-kung (P.K. Chiang) holds a Ph.D. in
Agricultural Economics from Tokyo University. He served as
Minister of Economic Affairs under President Lee Teng-hui
from 1993-95, as Chairman of the Executive Yuan Council for
Economic Planning and Development from 1995-2000, and as
Deputy Speaker of the Legislative Yuan from 2001-04. In
addition to his current role as a KMT Vice Chairman, Chiang
is an at-large legislator for the KMT.
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