Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07TAIPEI2518
2007-11-21 10:37:00
CONFIDENTIAL
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:  

PRESIDENTIAL OFFICE SECRETARY GENERAL YEH CHU-LAN

Tags:  PGOV PREL CH TW 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI
RHHMUNA/USPACOM HONOLULU HI
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002518 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL CH TW
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL OFFICE SECRETARY GENERAL YEH CHU-LAN
ON ELECTIONS, CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS, AND UN REFERENDUM

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002518

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL CH TW
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL OFFICE SECRETARY GENERAL YEH CHU-LAN
ON ELECTIONS, CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS, AND UN REFERENDUM

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Presidential Office Secretary General Yeh
Chu-lan stressed to the Director on November 20 that,
regardless of the outcome, President Chen Shui-bian will
produce no "surprises" between the presidential election next
March and the inauguration of the new president in May. Yeh
said that DPP candidate Frank Hsieh is realistic and
pragmatic on cross-Strait economic policy, but demurred at
acknowledging differences between Hsieh and Chen. Yeh
criticized KMT opposition to the Central Election Commission
decision on "one-stage" voting procedures for the combined
Legislative Yuan (LY) elections and referenda on January 12,
predicting the KMT will not succeed in its plan to defy the
CEC and use "two-stage" voting in cities and counties it
governs. Yeh was confident Hsieh will defeat Ma in the
presidential election because Ma lacks sustained experience
and rapport with the ordinary people of Taiwan. End Summary.



2. (C) In a meeting with Presidential Office Secretary
General Yeh Chu-lan on November 20, the Director noted PRC
President Hu Jintao's relatively moderate comments about
Taiwan at the recent 17th Party Congress. Hu's remarks may
have been intended for Taiwan's future president, the
Director suggested. In the near term, however, Beijing
remains concerned about the UN referendum and the possibility
of new "surprises" from President Chen between the election
(March 22) and the time he leaves office (May 20). Beijing
does not trust President Chen, the Director added.

No Post-Election "Surprises" from President Chen
-------------- ---


3. (C) Under President Hu Jintao, Beijing has become smarter
and has learned it is more effective to exert pressure on
Taiwan through the U.S. rather than directly, Yeh asserted.
Despite close interaction, there is not always sufficient
mutual understanding between the U.S. and Taiwan. If the
U.S. understood the collegial culture of the DPP and the
resilience of Taiwan's society, it would realize that
President Chen will not be in a position to launch new

initiatives after the election of a new president. Yeh
stressed that the U.S. has no need to worry that Chen could
do something unexpected between the election and the
inauguration.

Beijing's Skewed Understanding of Taiwan
--------------


4. (C) Yeh believes China understands the Taiwan of the past
as represented by Honorary KMT Chairman Lien Chan and People
First Party Chairman James Soong. However, Beijing has only
a superficial understanding of today's Taiwan based on the
situation in Taipei and information from the Taiwan media.
Even if the Chinese can see some of Taiwan's underlying
reality, they will tend to deny what they do not want to see.
Beijing needs to open communication with the DPP as the
ruling party and not limit contact to opposition leaders.


5. (C) Yeh expressed hope that future PRC leaders will have
a more global perspective and understand the need for changes
in China's system. The Director expressed optimism that as
China continues to develop economically, it will eventually
move away from authoritarianism as other countries have done.
Because this is a long-term process, however, Taipei needs
to be patient and careful and it should not try to solve
quickly the complicated issue of Taiwan's final status, the
Director stressed.


6. (C) Yeh said she was also optimistic that, following a
revolution in thinking, China will change in a positive
direction. Taiwan and China have gained useful experience
over the past seven years about how to deal with each other,
she noted, adding that Taiwan needs to continue this learning
process.

Cross-Strait Economic Policy

TAIPEI 00002518 002 OF 003


--------------


7. (C) Economic relations are a good starting point in
developing cross-Strait relations, Yeh observed, and DPP
candidate Frank Hsieh's recent statements on cross-Strait
economic policy have been very pragmatic. Yeh downplayed
apparent differences between Hsieh and President Chen over
liberalizing cross-Strait investment restrictions. Hsieh
believes investment proposals should be reviewed on a
case-by-case basis rather than applying a fixed 40 percent
limit. Although President Chen has stressed he will retain
the 40 percent limit while in office, he has already allowed
flexibility in some cases. Hsieh, who is realistic and
practical, recognizes the importance of maintaining Taiwan
autonomy, but he also realizes that this cannot be the sole
consideration. Asked if Hsieh and Chen were playing "good
cop" and "bad cop," Yeh declined to answer directly but
stressed that Chen and Hsieh are "good friends."

Defining the "Former President" Role in Taiwan
-------------- -


8. (C) According to Yeh, pan-Green unity is now good as many
Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) district candidates have either
switched to the DPP or dropped out of their Legislative Yuan
(LY) races. While former President Lee Teng-hui, the TSU's
spiritual leader, is unhappy, politics is a realistic
business. Yeh predicted that Chen will not follow the
example of Lee Teng-hui, who couldn't keep his hand out of
politics after leaving the presidency. Taiwan experienced
its first transition of power from one party to another in

2000. At the time, Lee was concerned about the DPP's
inexperience and, out of good intentions, offered advice to
help Chen, who was happy to have the benefit of Lee's
experience at the beginning of his first term.
Unfortunately. Lee later became too deeply involved in
partisan politics with the TSU. Chen will learn from Lee's
mistake, Yeh suggested, adding that Chen will be focused on
family, including grandchildren, and friends, and will also
want to visit other countries. (Comment: We're not so sure.
End Comment.)

UN Referenda
--------------


9. (C) Yeh criticized KMT opposition to the November 16
Central Election Commission (CEC) decision to adopt a
one-stage process in voting for LY elections and referenda on
January 12. The two-stage process advocated by the KMT, she
argued, would inconvenience voters, who would have to line up
twice, once to receive LY election ballots and once to vote
on the referenda. The standard practice in Taiwan (other
than in the 2004 election),she explained, has been to
distribute all ballots together when more than one election
takes place at the same time. When the two-stage process was
used in 2004 for the defensive referendum, there were people
who left polling stations after voting for the president
without realizing there was a separate vote for the
referendum. In some cases, this problem was exacerbated
because voting for the president and for the referendum took
place in separate school classrooms. KMT threats to defy the
CEC in the cities and counties its controls will not succeed,
Yeh predicted, recalling how the central government had
reversed KMT Taipei County Magistrate Chou Hsi-wei's order to
promote police officers in defiance of central government
objections. Teachers and local officials are paid by the
central government, Yeh stressed.


10. (C) The DPP is not opposed to people voting on both the
DPP and KMT UN referenda, Yeh continued. The KMT cannot
defend its opposition to voting on a referendum as
democratic, she argued. Taiwan citizens can vote to choose
their president. Why should they be prevented from voting
for a referendum on a policy proposal? Noting that 2.7
million people have signed the DPP UN referendum drive, Yeh
suggested that the referendum will pass if each of these
people brings two friends or relatives to vote for the
referendum on election day.


TAIPEI 00002518 003 OF 003


Swing Voters
--------------


11. (C) Asked about swing voters in Taiwan, Yeh
characterized this group as people who support a particular
candidate but do not identify with a political party. For
example, swing voters may dislike President Chen but support
Frank Hsieh because he has an attractive personality. Yeh
expressed confidence that as a Hakka herself, she will be
able to boost support for Frank Hsieh in the traditionally
pro-Blue Hakka areas of northern Taiwan. Yeh added that the
DPP has substantially increased its support in these areas
since 2000.

Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu's Legal Victory
--------------


12. (C) According to Yeh, the significance of Kaohsiung
Mayor Chen Chu's November 16 victory on appeal in the
election nullification lawsuit is that the DPP will not have
to go through the difficult process of preparing for another
mayoral election and the Chen Chu administration will be able
focus on doing its work smoothly. Approval of Mayor Chen
Chu's performance should rise, which will boost the morale of
DPP voters in the city.

Presidential Election Polling
--------------


13. (C) Yeh acknowledged that Frank Hsieh lags behind KMT
candidate Ma Ying-jeou in public opinion polls, but said the
DPP, based on experience, is always optimistic it can catch
up when the polling gap is within 20 percent. There is a
large "undecided" group in public opinion polls, Yeh pointed
out, and DPP supporters are undercounted because many do not
respond to poll takers. Some poll results are clearly
unreasonable, she added, for example, a poll that shows Hsieh
trailing Ma by 20 percent in Kaohsiung, where Hsieh remains
very popular.

KMT Candidate Ma Ying-jeou: The Fortunate Son
--------------


14. (C) The DPP takes Ma Ying-jeou seriously, Yeh said,
adding that Ma is more conscientious than the KMT candidate
in the last two elections, Lien Chan, who was lazy. The DPP
is confident, however, that Hsieh will defeat Ma because Ma
lacks sustained experience and rapport with the common people
of Taiwan. Ma grew up in an elite family in Taipei and was
groomed as a future KMT star by his father and the party.
After being sent overseas to study, Ma returned to serve in
high government positions. Prior to the current campaign, Ma
had little contact with ordinary Taiwanese, Yeh observed.
Even his current campaign activities are similar to shooting
a film. Ma acts like a guest and does not understand
reality. In contrast to Ma, Yeh noted, Hsieh grew up in a
poor family, endured hardship, and began his political career
at the bottom as a human rights lawyer and Taipei city
council member.

Comment
--------------


15. (C) A close supporter of Frank Hsieh, Yeh Chu-lan may
well be named premier if Hsieh wins the presidential election
next March. She has clearly been placed in the Presidential
Office to provide a constant bridge between Chen Shui-bian
and Frank Hsieh.
YOUNG