Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07TAIPEI2517
2007-11-21 10:06:00
CONFIDENTIAL
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:  

BATTLE FOR LEGISLATIVE SEATS HEATS UP AS

Tags:  PGOV TW 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO2089
OO RUEHCN RUEHGH
DE RUEHIN #2517/01 3251006
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 211006Z NOV 07
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7430
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 7459
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 9053
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 9262
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 2211
RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 0668
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 8747
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 1484
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 6185
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/USPACOM HONOLULU HI
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002517 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: BATTLE FOR LEGISLATIVE SEATS HEATS UP AS
REGISTRATION PERIOD CLOSES

REF: A. TAIPEI 02511

B. TAIPEI 01066

Classified By: AIT Deputy Director Robert S. Wang,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002517

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: BATTLE FOR LEGISLATIVE SEATS HEATS UP AS
REGISTRATION PERIOD CLOSES

REF: A. TAIPEI 02511

B. TAIPEI 01066

Classified By: AIT Deputy Director Robert S. Wang,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Taiwan's January 2008 legislative election
season officially kicked off with the close of candidate
registration on November 20. Nearly 300 candidates have
registered to run for 73 district and 6 aborigine seats.
Another 132 candidates have registered to represent their
parties in the competition for 34 at-large party list seats.
Despite a large number of minor party candidates, the
elections will primarily be a contest between the two major
parties--the ruling DPP and the opposition KMT--for control
of the legislature. The KMT is widely expected to retain
control of the Legislative Yuan (LY),boosting the percentage
of seats it holds and quite possibly winning an outright
majority. End Summary.

Candidates Complete Registration
--------------


2. (SBU) Taiwan's legislative election season kicked off
with the close of candidate registration on November 20. A
total of 296 candidates registered to run for the 73 district
and 6 aborigine seats. Another 132 candidates registered to
represent their parties in the competition for 34 at-large
party seats. Candidates and parties are already ramping up
their campaign activities in the run-up to the January 12,
2008 legislative elections. Taiwan election authorities will
hold a lottery on December 19 to assign numbers to candidates
that determine their placement on the ballots. Public
debates and fora for candidates to air and discuss their
policies are planned for January 2-11.


3. (SBU) Most local observers see the legislative elections
as a test of strength between the two major parties--the
ruling DPP and opposition KMT. The KMT is widely expected to
win the largest number and perhaps a majority of the seats
and to retain control of the new legislature. The vote on
January 12 will also mark Taiwan's transition to a new
legislative election system that halves the total number of
legislators to 113 and establishes 73 new election districts
with single representatives. Indigenous peoples will cast
ballots for 6 additional seats reserved for plains and
mountain aborigines running in island-wide districts. The

remaining 34 at-large seats will be allocated among the
political parties based on the proportion of votes they
receive on a second ballot for party preference (reftels).

KMT Sets Goal of 70 Seats
--------------


4. (SBU) At the close of registration on November 19 the
KMT had nominated 70 candidates to run in 69 districts,
choosing not to field people in four districts where
KMT-allied, Non-Partisan Solidarity Union (NPSU) candidates
are running. Four KMT candidates also registered to compete
for the 6 seats allocated to aborigines. The KMT has put
forward 34 candidates to compete for the 34 available
at-large party representational slots. The KMT aims to win
at least 68 of the 113 total seats, and party officials have
expressed hope for a good showing on election day that will
enable the party to surpass 70 seats.

DPP Revises Initial 50-Seat Estimate Upward
--------------


5. (C) The DPP has nominated 69 candidates to run in 69
districts, 2 candidates for the aborigine seats, and it has
also put forward a list of 34 candidates to compete for the
at-large party representative slots. President Chen had
initially set the party's sights on winning 50 seats, but the
DPP yesterday predicted it will surpass the earlier goal and
is now aiming at 60 seats. Party officials expect the
defection of several Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) local
candidates to the DPP in recent weeks will boost the party's
overall prospects. By raising public predictions, the DPP

TAIPEI 00002517 002 OF 002


may also be seeking to bolster morale and counter perceptions
that it may lose badly to the KMT in the legislative
elections.

Small Parties Pin Hopes on Second Party Ballot
-------------- -


6. (SBU) A total of 15 minor parties registered candidates
in district races and 11 small parties also nominated people
for the at-large party representational seats. The most
significant of these parties, the pan-Green TSU, has 13
registered district candidates, mostly graduates from the Lee
Teng-hui School, and 15 at-large candidates. The TSU hopes
to win 10 percent of the party list vote, which would give it
four seats. The Civic Party, Green Party, NSU, Hakka Party,
Third Society Party, Red Party, and Constitution Party each
fielded at least 10 district candidates, which allows them to
compete for the second at-large party ballot. The pan-Blue
New Party did not field any district candidates but
nevertheless qualified to put forward 10 at-large candidates
because it garnered at least 2 percent of the popular vote in
one of the three previous legislative elections.


7. (C) Despite fielding some district candidates, the
smaller parties, including the TSU, are placing their hopes
on garnering enough votes on the party preference ballot to
qualify for at-large party seats. Many of these parties,
however, are in direct competition with each other for the
same, small slice of a primarily urban voting public
dissatisfied with DPP and KMT partisan politics. The large
number of "third parties" complicates their already uphill
battle to win at least 5 percent of the party ballot, the
minimum threshold to qualify for at-large party seats under
the new legislative election system. Their task will be made
even harder if the DPP and KMT are able to convince the
public to vote for them rather than waste their ballots on a
lost cause.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) As the legislative campaigns heat up, the DPP and
KMT will be competing for maximum advantage in the new
legislature and also to boost support for their presidential
tickets. Some on both sides will seek to cast the
legislative elections as a KMT-DPP showdown. However, an
individual candidate's local reputation, personal appeal,
connections, and constituent services are often more
important to voters than party affiliation. Therefore, the
outcome of the legislative elections will not necessarily be
an indicator of how the presidential election will turn out.
YOUNG