KMT LY SPEAKER WANG JIN-PYNG ON ELECTIONS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002516

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2032
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: KMT LY SPEAKER WANG JIN-PYNG ON ELECTIONS,
KAOHSIUNG VERDICT, ANNUAL BUDGET

REF: TAIPEI 2501

Classified By: Director Stephen M. Young, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary: KMT LY Speaker Wang Jin-pyng told the
Director on November 20 that the KMT has almost completely
absorbed its Pan-Blue ally, the PFP, which will have only
three candidates under its banner in the next LY election.
Wang seemed neither pleased nor surprised by his number-one
spot on the KMT's list of at-large legislative candidates,
and would not say whether he would seek re-election as LY
Speaker. The KMT could win as many as 67 seats in the LY,
predicted Wang, and former president Lee Teng-Hui, fed up
with President Chen and the DPP, might even endorse Ma late
in the campaign. Wang studiously withheld praise for KMT
presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou, whose current lead Wang
attributed primarily to rising public anger at President
Chen. DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh is doing no
better, Wang said, adding that Hsieh would now be facing
corruption charges absent President Chen's interference.
Wang expressed hope the LY would pass the 2008 annual budget
by late December, and voiced frustration that the U.S. had
not yet replied to Taiwan's request for F-16s. End Summary.


2. (C) The Director met with KMT Legislative Yuan (LY)
Speaker Wang Jin-pyng at Wang's LY residence the afternoon of
November 20. Wang, distracted by the press of LY business,
was less talkative than usual, but did offer some insights on
the upcoming legislative and presidential elections, and an
update on this year's annual budget.

PFP Fading Away
--------------


3. (C) On arrival at the residence, the Director encountered
Wang speaking to a former People First Party (PFP)
legislator, Ko Shu-min, who had recently returned to the KMT
to participate in the January 12, 2008 LY election. In
response to the Director's question, Ko confirmed that the
PFP had decided not to put up a slate of its own for the
party at-large ballot. (Note: During the LY election, voters
will cast one ballot for their district candidate of choice,
and a separate ballot for their party of choice. The latter
ballots will be used to elect the "at-large" candidates via a
"first-past-the-post system. End note.) Wang told the
Director the PFP will still have one district candidate vying
for the Matzu Island seat and two candidates competing for
two of the eight LY seats reserved to the Aboriginal
population.

LY Speaker In Limbo?
--------------


4. (C) Wang told the Director he was neither happy nor
surprised by the KMT decision to put him at the top of the
party's list of "at-large" candidates. Wang refused to
disclose whether he intended to seek the LY speakership
again, creating the impression that he might be tired of the
position and its responsibilities, and perhaps interested in
something different.

KMT Unified, Almost
--------------


5. (C) Wang acknowledged the KMT at-large list had been a
source of controversy within the party, and that the omission
of several reform-minded candidates had also attracted
negative press attention. Wang claimed he had not been
involved in the selection process, but opined Ma likely had
been. According to Wang, one of Ma's nominees, former Chi
Mei Hospital Director Steve Chang (Chi-hsien),had actually
been recommended by Ma's vice presidential running mate,
Vincent Siew (Hsiao Wen-chang). Chang was upset by his
omission from the at-large list, Wang continued, but has
since been placated with a party Vice Secretary-General
position.

LY, Presidential Campaigns
--------------


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6. (C) Wang predicted the KMT would win a minimum of 60 (of
113) seats in the next LY, and as many as 67 if everything
were to break in the KMT's favor. The new legislative format
will further marginalize former president Lee Teng-hui's
Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU),and will virtually eliminate
James Soong's PFP. Noting that Lee still appears to have
considerable influence within Taiwan's political circles, the
Director asked who Lee might endorse for president, and how
it would affect the race. Lee is increasingly angry and
frustrated with President Chen's "incompetence and
corruption," Wang responded, making it possible that Lee
could endorse Ma Ying-jeou, or "help" him in other ways. An
endorsement from Lee must not come too early in the race,
Wang added, or it will do no good at all. (Comment: Wang is
presumed to be in close contact with Lee so his comments here
take on added significance. End Comment.)


7. (C) If Frank Hsieh wins the presidency, Wang told the
Director, President Chen would likely remain as DPP party
chairman. The Director replied that contacts within the DPP
had told AIT that Hsieh as president would automatically
assume the party chairmanship. Wang disagreed, arguing that
Hsieh would want to avoid the aggravations of the
chairmanship, leaving the position in Chen's hands.


8. (C) The Director asked Wang where Ma Ying-jeou's campaign
advantages lie. Wang only mentioned factors external to Ma
and his campaign: the public is increasingly angry and
dissatisfied with the DPP government, Wang replied, which has
helped Ma maintain his lead in the polls. The KMT base is
also larger than that of the DPP. Conspicuously, Wang did
not mention Ma's recent long-stay programs, or any of his
cross-Strait or economic reform proposals. When asked about
his role in Ma's campaign, Wang claimed to have arranged Ma's
November 19 visit to Kaohsiung City, adding that the two of
them had appeared together at public events during the visit.



9. (C) Wang was even less charitable to Frank Hsieh, who he
described as having no observable advantage over Ma at this
stage of the race. Although Hsieh has echoed many of Ma's
proposals to ease restrictions on cross-Strait trade and
tourism, Wang continued, the public does not believe Hsieh
intends to honor those campaign promises. Others question
whether China would be willing to work with a President
Hsieh, Wang added, especially if Chen Shui-bian remains
active in DPP politics. Wang claimed without elaborating
that Hsieh had sent representatives to Beijing to increase
mutual understanding, but did not mention the result of
Hsieh's overtures.

Kaohsiung Fix Was In
--------------


10. (C) Ever the conspiratorialist, Wang alleged the DPP
administration had pressured the Kaohsiung appellate court to
reinstate Chen Chu as Kaohsiung mayor (see reftel). Many in
the KMT had expected this result, Wang added, because courts
in southern Taiwan are dominated by Green partisans. Wang
predicted the DPP Kaohsiung victory will help the KMT
mobilize indignant Blue voters in the upcoming legislative
and presidential elections. The KMT is more unified than the
opposing DPP, Wang asserted, but differences within the party
remain, especially between Ma and former chairman Lien Chan.
According to Wang, Ma is changing KMT policy to appeal to
more moderate voters, but does not think about how deep-Blues
might react.


11. (C) The Director asked Wang's opinion of the corruption
trial against Vice President Annette Lu, which had just
begun. If Lu has committed any crime, Wang replied, it must
be very small, especially compared to Frank Hsieh's misdeeds.
Hsieh hasn't been prosecuted yet, Wang charged, because
President Chen is protecting him and his vice presidential
running mate Su Tseng-chang. According to Wang, at least ten
criminal investigations are pending against Hsieh, all of
which have merit.

Annual Budget
--------------

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12. (C) Early next week, Wang told the Director, the LY will
begin amendments and additions to the FY 2008 annual budget.
Wang said he hopes to have the budget passed before the LY
ends during the week of December 17. He expressed
frustration that the USG had not yet responded to Taiwan's
request for F-16s, even though the LY had already
appropriated much of the necessary funding.

Comment
--------------


13. (C) Wang is an adept political insider, more in touch
with disparate political groups than anyone else at his level
of authority in Taiwan. The fact that he talks to President
Chen, former President Lee, and just about everyone else who
counts in Taiwan politics today, makes him an interesting
contact. That said, his transparent ambitions and well-known
animus toward Ma Ying-jeou warrant a grain of salt be added
to much of what he postulates concerning political outcomes.
YOUNG