Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07TAIPEI2471
2007-11-13 09:52:00
CONFIDENTIAL
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:  

DIFFERENCES OVER CAMPAIGN STRATEGY BETWEEN DPP

Tags:  PGOV TW 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002471 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2027
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: DIFFERENCES OVER CAMPAIGN STRATEGY BETWEEN DPP
CANDIDATE FRANK HSIEH AND PRESIDENT CHEN


Classified By: AIT Deputy Director Robert S. Wang,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002471

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2027
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: DIFFERENCES OVER CAMPAIGN STRATEGY BETWEEN DPP
CANDIDATE FRANK HSIEH AND PRESIDENT CHEN


Classified By: AIT Deputy Director Robert S. Wang,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: A close advisor to DPP candidate Frank Hsieh
told AIT that Hsieh is concerned President Chen's
confrontational style could undermine his efforts to reach
out to moderate centrist voters. Our contact attributed
Chen's approach to a view that Taiwan's society has an "M"
shape distribution with no centrist voters. By contrast,
Hsieh believes Taiwan's society has a normal "bell"
distribution and is basing his campaign on an appeal to the
moderate majority. Hsieh will stick to his position on
liberalizing cross-Strait economic policy but not criticize
President Chen for making disparaging remarks. Despite their
differences, Hsieh counts on President Chen to raise
political donations and direct government resources where
they will help his campaign. End Summary.


2. (C) Corey Chen (please protect),a TECRO Council Member
and close political advisor to DPP presidential candidate
Frank Hsieh, has told AIT Hsieh is concerned President Chen's
confrontational campaign strategy will damage his own efforts
to reach out to moderate swing voters. Hsieh, for example,
is unhappy with the disrespect President Chen recently
displayed in criticizing the wording on the funeral urn of
KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou's deceased father. The DPP
candidate is concerned President Chen's excesses will drive
away Light Green voters who otherwise would be likely to vote
for him. At the conclusion of the UN torch relay on November
3, Corey Chen noted, Hsieh had pointed out to President Chen
that some participants had been injured by rocks thrown by
Deep Blue opponents of the referendum. Asked by Hsieh
whether he wasn't worried about the injured and their
families, President Chen did not respond.


3. (C) According to Corey Chen, President Chen has defended
his confrontational strategy by arguing to Hsieh that the
distribution of Taiwan voters on election day will fall into
an "M" shaped distribution: there will be no middle ground,
only Blue and Green supporters. In addition, President Chen
maintains that the only way to mobilize the Green base voters
needed to win the election is to sharpen the political

confrontation in society. Hsieh disagrees with President
Chen, Corey Chen stressed. Hsieh believes that Taiwan
society follows a normal "bell" curve distribution, with a
large middle class. In Hsieh's view, the key to election
victory is to win sufficient support from voters in the
middle of the political spectrum. Hsieh is also concerned
that President Chen's efforts to stir up Blue-Green
confrontation may hurt the chances of some DPP legislative
candidates, who must appeal to Light Green and Light Blue
voters in districts where the DPP does not enjoy majority
support.


4. (C) Corey Chen recalled that Frank Hsieh had deliberately
avoided provoking Blue-Green tensions in his two campaigns
for Kaohsiung mayor. During his first campaign for Kaohsiung
mayor in 1998, Hsieh was able to win because KMT Mayor Wu
Den-yih had devoted too much time and attention to politics
in Taipei, consequently turning in a poor performance as
mayor of Kaohsiung. When seeking reelection in 2002, Hsieh
campaigned on the theme of continuing to work for the future
of Kaohsiung. Because Hsieh did not try to turn either
election into a DPP-KMT confrontation, he was able over time
to develop a cooperative relationship with the KMT-dominated
city council, eventually even being able to appoint his own
candidates to leadership positions in the council.


5. (C) Corey Chen noted President Chen's public rejection of
recent campaign statements made by Hsieh on plans to further
liberalize cross-Strait economic policy if elected president.
While Hsieh will not criticize President Chen, he will
continue to adhere to, and reiterate, his own campaign
positions, our contact stressed. Corey Chen also voiced
concern about the negative effects on Hsieh's campaign of
recent price hikes and seeming government indifference,
including the initial reluctance of Vice Premier Chiou I-jen
to intervene to limit the rise in oil prices set by the
state-owned CPC Corporation, Taiwan.

TAIPEI 00002471 002 OF 002




6. (C) Hsieh, who is also concerned about President Chen's
future role, has asked Corey Chen to prepare a simulation on
what President Chen might do if Hsieh is elected president.
Corey Chen noted that the general amnesty proposed by Hsieh
on cases involving officials' use of special allowances would
cover President Chen as well as others. However, President
Chen's activism may be restrained by the declining health of
his wife Wu Shu-chen, he suggested. President Chen feels
responsibility for his wife's disability, which resulted from
her being run over by a farm vehicle in 1985 as Chen and Wu
were thanking voters for their support following Chen's
unsuccessful bid for Tainan County Magistrate.


7. (C) Despite differences over campaign strategy and
policy, Hsieh counts on President Chen to play a major role
on the "organizational front" of the campaign. Hsieh hopes
President Chen will focus on central Taiwan, where, Corey
Chen said, Hsieh lags 7 percentage points behind Ma according
to the Hsieh camp's internal polling. President Chen can
direct government resources in ways that help the campaign
and he has a special role to play in seeking political
donations from companies in the Taichung high-tech zone.
Corey Chen noted that the Hsieh campaign has already spent
about NTD 200 million (equivalent to USD 6.2 million) at this
early stage in the campaign.


8. (C) Relations between Hsieh and vice presidential
candidate Su Tseng-chang, strained during the primary last
May, are quite good now, Corey Chen noted. Hsieh called Su
rather than President Chen after his recent knee injury,
Corey Chen pointed out, adding that Su has been helpful and
did not try to take any advantage from Hsieh's accident.


9. (C) In mid-November, Corey Chen said, Hsieh will begin
introducing in rapid succession a series of policy proposals.
Hsieh has tasked Corey Chen to prepare proposals on
establishing English as a second working language, reforming
Taiwan's judicial and legal system, demilitarizing Kinmen and
Matsu, and building a casino in Kinmen. Hsieh will also be
busy attending the openings of campaign headquarters for DPP
legislative candidates.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Differences between Hsieh and Chen over policy and
campaign strategy mean that we should be prepared for some
confusing and conflicting signals from DPP leaders between
now and the presidential election next March 22. President
Chen's divisive approach has been a significant factor in the
political polarization that has taken place in Taiwan in
recent years. If Hsieh is elected president, many observers
here will hope that his focus on the political center and
emphasis on cooperation rather than confrontation will result
in a less-charged political atmosphere.

YOUNG