TAICHUNG MAYOR HU ON TAIWAN POLITICS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002416

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/TC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW CH
SUBJECT: TAICHUNG MAYOR HU ON TAIWAN POLITICS


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: (KMT) Taichung Mayor Jason Hu told the
Director on October 26 that he is confident the KMT will win
the 2008 presidential election. Hu said KMT election
strategy is to ignore DPP candidate Frank Hsieh and cast the
election as a referendum on President Chen Shui-bian's tenure
in office. Hu acknowledged that the KMT UN referendum, which
he opposes, is merely an election tactic, but explained the
KMT could not reverse course now. Hu suggested his party
should focus the presidential debate on the economy and avoid
Taiwan-identity related topics pushed by the DPP. End
Summary.

Ignoring Hsieh, Targeting Chen
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2. (C) Taichung Mayor Jason Hu (Chih-ch'iang) met with AIT
Director Stephen Young on October 26 to discuss the upcoming
elections and referenda on UN membership. The KMT mayor said
he is confident KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou will win the 2008
presidential election, noting that KMT internal polls show Ma
enjoys a 15-20 percent lead over DPP candidate Frank Hsieh
(Chang-ting). KMT election strategy, he said, is to "pretend
Hsieh doesn't exist" and cast the election as a referendum on
President Chen Shui-bian's tenure in office. Focusing on
Chen, he noted, diminishes the candidacy of Frank Hsieh, just
as his own 2005 mayoral campaign had focused on the unpopular
President Chen to the detriment of his oponent.


3. (C) Such a strategy, Hu noted, only works as long as Ma
remains ahead in the polls. Hu assessed that Ma's "long
stay" strategy in central and southern Taiwan had been a
success. Staying in the homes of local families, including
in DPP-leaning areas, had helped Ma boost his public ratings.
Hu noted that Ma and his staff had initially resisted the
"long stay" idea, preferring that Ma rest and stay out of the
public eye after resigning from the KMT Chairmanship in
February 2007. Hu told the Director that Ma had decided not
to visit the U.S. this year because he feared he could not
top his March 2006 visit.

Too Late to Back Out of UN Referendum
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4. (C) Mayor Hu told the Director that the KMT UN
referendum proposal, which Hu strongly opposes, is really
just an election tactic to keep up with the DPP. The KMT was
merely responding to the DPP's referendum initiative with its
own proposal, though Hu argued that the party should have
instead gone its own way and not let the DPP "steal the
show." Hu told the Director that the KMT must stand firm in
the debate over a one- or two-stage process for casting
ballots in the upcoming elections and referenda. If the
DPP-backed one-stage balloting process is approved by the
Central Election Commission (CEC),KMT-controlled counties
and cities will likely oppose implementation. (Note: The
CEC on October 26 met to discuss the one- and two-stage
proposals, but failing to reach consensus, postponed a
decision to its next monthly meeting in November. End Note.)



5. (C) Hu speculated that China understands the KMT
referendum is not intended to antagonize Beijing, though it
did express dissatisfaction with the move to KMT Honorary
Chairman Lien Chan. Taiwan, Hu maintained, should focus on
improving relations with the mainland and strengthening
economic ties, so that "when the tide is up, we will be there
with our boat." He said Frank Hsieh also favors improved
relations, but the DPP will try to portray a similar approach
by the KMT as "mainlanders" selling out to China. Hu said
KMT legislator Su Chi's claim that the U.S. does not oppose
the KMT UN referendum provides the DPP with an opportunity to
accuse the U.S. of meddling in domestic politics. A number
of senior KMT leaders had cautioned Su to stop trumpeting
this line, for fear that it might provoke a USG rebuke to the
KMT over its referendum. Hu dismissed as "ridiculous" Su's
claim that Chen had authorized the development of cruise
missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons.


6. (C) Mayor Hu emphasized that the KMT's electoral
strategy is to focus the presidential campaign on the
economy. The economy in Taichung, on the other hand,
"couldn't be better," as his city has succeeded in attracting
foreign as well as Taiwan investment from the mainland.

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Nevertheless, he acknowledged, the public's pessimistic and
negative perception of economic conditions is a politically
"useful" weapon for the KMT to attack the Chen
administration.

KMT Could Sweep Taichung LY seats
--------------


7. (C) Turning to the 2008 LY elections, Hu told the
Director that the KMT has a good chance of winning all three
seats in Taichung city. Although public opinion is in favor
of elevating Taichung to "special municipality" status on the
same level as Taipei and Kaohsiung, President Chen is
unlikely to support the upgrade ahead of the presidential
election because he continues to insist that Taichung city
and Taichung county should first merge as a pre-condition for
special municipality status.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) Hu is a close adviser to KMT presidential candidate
Ma Ying-jeou, but also one of the party's more successful
locally elected leaders. As evidenced by his comments on
Taiwan's economy, Jason isn't afraid to chart his own course,
with an eye to his local constituents. The fact that Hu
roundly criticized Su Chi, another key Ma advisor, suggests
some friction and rivalry among those surrounding the KMT
candidate.
YOUNG