FORMER PRESIDENT LEE TENG-HUI'S TAIWAN SOLIDARITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002387

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2017
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: FORMER PRESIDENT LEE TENG-HUI'S TAIWAN SOLIDARITY
UNION (TSU) PARTY STRUGGLES TO SURVIVE

Classified By: AIT Deputy Director Robert S. Wang.
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Lee Teng-hui's small Taiwan Solidarity
Union (TSU) faces a "life and death" struggle for survival in
the January 2008 legislative elections as a result of the
halving of the legislature and the shift from multiple- to
single-representative districts. The TSU hopes President
Chen's resumption of the DPP Chairmanship will lead to an
early DPP-TSU agreement allowing TSU candidates to run
without DPP competition in some of the eight districts where
both the DPP and TSU currently have nominees. The DPP wants
TSU support for Frank Hsieh's presidential campaign, but has

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its own legislative candidates to look after and therefore is
likely to make only limited concessions. Lee Teng-hui's
efforts this past Spring to turn the TSU into a larger
political by positioning it as a centrist "third party"
between the DPP and KMT have not succeeded and may well be
counterproductive as the party struggles to stay alive. End
Summary.

TSU Looking for A Deal

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2. (C) Some Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) members hope that
long-stalled negotiations with the Democratic Progressive
Party (DPP) over the fielding of joint pan-Green legislative
candidates in election districts will succeed now that
President Chen Shui-bian has resumed the DPP Chairmanship.
In a sign of possible thaw in the deadlock between the two
pan-Green partners, Chen met with TSU Chairman Huang Kun-hui
on October 18 and the two pledged to conduct "speedy
mediations" in eight districts where both DPP and TSU have
nominated competing candidates. Huang told reporters the two
sides hope to reach a final agreement before the end of
October. Working-level discussion will continue between the
Secretaries-General of the two parties.

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3. (C) In the view of the TSU, the DPP had shown little
"sincerity" and intent to compromise under former Chairman Yu
Shyi-kun and former Secretary-General Lin Chia-long. TSU
Deputy Secretary-General Liu I-teh told AIT recently that
President Chen and DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh
better understand that pan-Green unity in the legislative
races and TSU support are essential to boosting Hsieh's
chances in the March presidential election. As President and
DPP Chairman, Chen holds the government and party resources
to broker deals between competing DPP and TSU legislative
candidates, Liu suggested.


4. (C) The TSU, which earlier this year announced it would
nominate candidates in 17 of Taiwan's 73 legislative
districts, recently revealed plans to nominate another 3
candidates. Initially, the TSU asked the DPP not to field
candidates in those districts, but TSU and DPP now have
competing candidates in 12 of the 17 districts. In one
district in Taichung city, the issue was recently resolved in
the TSU's favor after the two candidates agreed to hold a
public opinion poll to determine the pan-Green
representative. (Comment: TSU sources tell AIT that
cooperation in this instance may be exceptional, since close
personal relations between the two pan-Green candidates
facilitated cooperation.) On October 18 TSU Chairman Huang
stated that he and President Chen had agreed to mediate
between rival Green candidates in eight districts, with
mediation to focus initially on consultations to be followed
by public opinion polling only if necessary. Liu I-teh told
AIT the TSU could ultimately accept DPP concessions leaving
the TSU 5-6 "good" districts. According to Liu, the TSU
would need to win all those 5-6 districts in order to
preserve roughly the same percentage (7-8 percent) of seats
it holds in the current legislature (12 of 225 seats).

TSU Faces "Life and Death" Struggle

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5. (C) Liu emphasized that 2008 will be a "life and death"
struggle for the TSU and other small parties. In addition to
district candidates, voters will for the first time cast a

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second ballot for the political party of their choice, which
will be used to apportion 34 party at-large seats. With the
halving of the legislature, the introduction of single-member
districts, and a requirement to win at least 5 percent of the
party vote to qualify for any party list seats, however, the
TSU will face a difficult battle to survive.

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6. (C) The TSU remains divided over the best strategy to
pursue, Liu I-teh acknowledged. Some party headquarters
officials want to take a "go it alone" confrontational
approach toward the DPP, arguing that the TSU should run
candidates in as many of the 73 districts as possible in
order to maximize its share of the second, party at-large
votes. However, such a strategy would be expensive and
difficult to implement, Liu observed. Moreover, incumbent
TSU legislators resist this strategy because they would need

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the votes of DPP as well as TSU supporters in the new
elections districts. Trying to compete instead of
cooperating with the DPP would backfire and hurt TSU election
chances, they argue. Rather, they prefer to work with the
DPP to reach agreement on a unified pan-Green slate of
candidates, the approach now being tried by the TSU.


7. (C) Liu said the TSU is optimistic about winning several
district seats following an agreement with the DPP on
nominations, and the party also stands a good chance of
meeting the 5 percent second-vote threshold and win perhaps
two party at-large seats in the new Legislative Yuan (LY).
According to TSU internal polls, 3.5 percent of respondents
expressed support for the party, higher that the 2 percent
poll rating the TSU registered ahead of the 2004 elections,
when it garnered 7-9 percent of the vote. DPP candidate Tuan
I-kang, pitted against TSU legislator David Huang in Taipei
City, predicted that only two TSU district candidates (Lo
Chih-ming in Kaohsiung City and Liao Pen-yen in Taipei
County) are likely to win, and currently there is a rival DPP
candidate in the Kaohsiung race. Tuan also suggested the TSU
may not pass the 5 percent threshold on the party list vote,
which could be a "disaster" leading to the collapse of the
TSU as a competitive party. Tuan predicted that winning TSU

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legislators may bolt to the DPP shortly after the election.

One Taipei Race: Canary in a Coal Mine?
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9. (C) The legislative race in Taipei District 5 (Wan-hua
and Chung-cheng Districts),now a three way competition
between the DPP's Tuan I-kang, the TSU's David Huang, and the
KMT's Lin Yu-fang, is a key test of whether the DPP and TSU
can compromise to maximize the pan-Green camp's electoral
chances. With a divided Green camp, Lin stands a good chance
of winning in one of the very few districts in Taipei where
the pan-Green is competitive. Tuan and Huang have both told
AIT they are willing to accept the use of public opinion
polls to determine the pan-Green candidate, and each claims
that polling shows him as the stronger candidate. DPP Taipei
Headquarters Director Lee Cheng-yi told AIT, however, that
the candidates differ over whether polls should screen out
"Blue-leaning" voters, which could help Huang.

"Center Left" Line Not Working
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10. (C) Early this year TSU "spiritual father" and former
President Lee Teng-hui attempted to reposition the TSU as a
"centrist" third party to attract light Green and light Blue
voters, especially ethnic Taiwanese, who were disappointed
with partisan Blue-Green confrontation and the performance of
both the KMT and DPP. According to Tuan I-kang, this
represented a return to Lee's original vision for the TSU as
a party of defectors from the ethnic Taiwanese wing of the
KMT. However, the small number of politicians who ended up
joining the TSU were those passed over by the KMT and DPP in
the legislative nomination process. Under the previous
multiple member legislative district system, small party
candidates who took extreme positions did much better than
moderates. Failing to find room in the center, the TSU
jumped beyond the DPP to the Deep Green extreme, creating a
small, though vocal, base among pro-independence supporters,

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said Tuan.


11. (C) Liu and Huang from the TSU separately told AIT that
Lee's latest attempt to reposition the TSU as a centrist
third party was launched "before its time" and has not
worked. Centrist voters will not accept the TSU because of
its previous extreme positions, Tuan I-kang argued, adding
that moving to the center also alienates the party's Deep
Green base supporters. Following Lee's shift, TSU district
candidates have found it difficult to justify the party's new
approach to traditional supporters. Lee's centrist vision,
Liu stressed, is good for the future of the TSU, but
suggested the party should have begun to reinvent itself
after, rather than before, the upcoming legislative
elections. In Liu's view, the TSU should continue to carry
the Deep Green torch and push a pro-independence agenda,
allowing the DPP to move toward the center and appeal to
moderate and light Green voters.


12. (C) Liu denied recent media rumors that TSU Chairman
Huang Kun-hui, who is close to Lee Teng-hui, might launch a
presidential bid in order to boost support for TSU
legislative candidates. Liu said Huang has no intention of
doing so, explaining that relations between Lee Teng-hui and
Frank Hsieh are "too good" for the TSU to field a rival
presidential candidate. Legislator Huang cautioned against
over interpreting Lee's recent criticism of President Chen
and the DPP as indicating lack of support for Hsieh. While
Lee is disappointed with President Chen's performance, he
remains on quite good terms with Hsieh and is very likely to
endorse his candidacy.

Comment
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13. (C) Lee Teng-hui has tried but failed over the years to
build the TSU into a major force to maintain his influence in
Taiwan politics. Because the new legislative election system
is unfavorable to small parties, the TSU and its "spiritual
father" Lee Teng-hui run a real risk of being even more
marginalized following LY elections in January. While the
TSU is struggling to maintain its independence and separate

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identity as a political party, James Soong, the leader of
Taiwan's other small party, the pan-Blue People First Party
(PFP),appears to have seen the writing on the wall, and the
PFP is preparing to return to the fold of the KMT, from which
it split following the 2000 presidential election.
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