MAINLAND AFFAIRS CHAIR ACKNOWLEDGES HU JINTAO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002347

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2032
TAGS: PREL PGOV CH TW
SUBJECT: MAINLAND AFFAIRS CHAIR ACKNOWLEDGES HU JINTAO
FLEXIBILITY; EXPECTS NO PROGRESS UNDER CHEN SHUI-BIAN

REF: TAIPEI 2343

Classified By: AIT Acting Director Robert S. Wang. Reason(s):
1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary. Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Chairman
Chen Min-tong acknowledged to AIT that PRC President Hu
Jintao's October 15 CCP Party Congress statement was somewhat
more conciliatory than previous statements on Taiwan. He
speculated, however, that this "softer" message was intended
at best to signal possible flexibility in the post-Chen
Shui-bian period, since Beijing distrusts Presient Chen too
deeply to deal with him. MAC press guidance issued October
16 expressed Taiwan's desire for peace, parallelling Hu's
language, but rejected Hu's insistence on the "one-China
Principle" as a precondition for negotiations and called on
the PRC to repeal its Anti-Secession Law and stop pressuring
Taiwan in the international community and threatening Taiwan
militarily. End Summary.

A Softer Touch
--------------


2. (C) MAC Chairman Chen Min-tong met with AIT Acting
Director on Oct. 16 to discuss Taiwan's response to Hu
Jintao's 17th Party Congress statement in Beijing the
previous day. Chairman Chen acknowledged that Hu's statement
was somewhat "softer" and more conciliatory than previous PRC
statements toward Taiwan insofar as it avoided references to
the UN Referendum and Anti-Secession Law and proposed a
"peace agreement." Chen sees Hu as a more "practical" leader
who "sincerely" wants to resolve the cross-Strait issue and
may be willing to be more flexible, especially in dealing
with Taiwan in international organizations. While
acknowledging that Hu has strong leadership qualities, Chen
said Taiwan is still uncertain whether Hu has consolidated
his party and government leadership sufficient to allow him
this increased flexibility. In any event, Chen continued, Hu
does not appear in a hurry to negotiate with Taiwan and seems
content to wait until after Taiwan's March 2008 presidential
election.


3. (C) Chairman Chen assessed that Hu Jintao has a dual
purpose behind his comments on Taiwan. On the one hand, Hu
was actually speaking to Chen Shui-bian's successor.
Beijing, Chen said, deeply distrusts President Chen, has
already broken off negotiations on tourism and charter
flights, and has no intention of dealing with Chen for the
remainder of his term. On the other hand, Chairman Chen
continued, Hu was also talking to the U.S. and the
international community seeking to portray China as
conciliatory, in part, he argued, so they would be on China's
side in the event China felt compelled to take action against
Taiwan.

Taiwan Responds
--------------


4. (C) Chairman Chen then handed ADIR a copy of MAC's
just-completed press release, which was less negative and
dismissive of Hu's statement than the initial reactions by
both MAC officials and government spokesman Shieh Jhy-wey the
previous day, Oct. 15 (see reftel). Chen acknowledged that
the MAC press statement had not been approved by the
President, who had strongly criticized the Hu statement that
morning, Oct. 16, as tantamount to Taiwan surrendering to the
PRC. The basic points, however, are identical. The MAC
press release began on a more conciliatory note: "Peace is
the common language of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait."
It then lamented that Hu Jintao had waited for five years to
respond to Chen Shui-bian's January 2003 proposal to
establish a "reciprocal framework for building peace and
stability." Hu's "one China principle," the statement
continued, remained the main obstacle to peace talks. It
must be dropped, the Anti-Secession Law rescinded, and the
missiles removed before cross-Strait negotiations could
proceed

TAIPEI 00002347 002 OF 002




5. (C) More generally, Chairman Chen told ADIR that he saw
the possible emergence of a virtuous cycle, beginning with
President Bush's positive statements on Taiwan democracy at
the APEC summit in Sydney last month. President Chen, he
maintained, had responded by working to moderate the DPP's
"normal country" resolution despite strong resistance from
the "deep green" faction. Now, Hu Jintao has made what
appears to be a more conciliatory speech in Beijing.
Chairman Chen expressed the hope that this might end the
vicious downward cycle of statements, of which President
Chen's "four wants" were a part, though, he hastened to add,
wholly caused by PRC provocation.

Flexibility on UN Referenda?
--------------


6. (C) In this connection, Chen then discussed the
possibility of the Legislative Yuan (LY) coming up with a
third referendum that could be more acceptable to the United
States and/or the PRC. (Note: Section 16 of the 2003
Referendum Law empowers the LY to directly initiate referenda
by majority vote.) Chen stressed that the two current UN
referenda are not likely to pass next March. He said that he
had just come from a day at the LY, which is actively
discussing a third, more generic UN referendum on Taiwan
joining the UN but without specifying under what name. Chen
said this alternative is more likely to be approved in the
referendum and suggested it may be more acceptable to the
U.S. ADIR reminded him that U.S. policy continues to be that
we do not support Taiwan membership in international
organizations that require statehood as a prerequisite for
membership. At the same time, ADIR remarked personally that
such an alternative would at least address the "name change"
issue to some extent.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) MAC Chairman Chen Min-tong and SEF Chairman Hong
Chi-chang (reftel) are interpreting Hu Jintao's Oct. 16
statement as a softer, more conciliatory approach by Beijing.
They acknowledged that both Beijing and President Chen
appear to have given up on cross-Strait prospects during the
remainder of Chen's term. They do, however, see possible
signals to Taiwan's next president, who will be elected in
March 2008. MAC's Oct. 16 press release was more positive in
tone than the initial rejection the previous day.

WANG