KMT TAIPEI MAYOR HAU LONG-BIN ON REFERENDA, KMT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002296

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2032
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: KMT TAIPEI MAYOR HAU LONG-BIN ON REFERENDA, KMT
POLITICS, "NATIONAL DAY"


Classified By: Director Stephen M. Young, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary: KMT Taipei Mayor Hau Long-bin told the
Director on October 4 that KMT presidential candidate Ma
Ying-jeou's campaign was "getting better," and that Ma's
long-stay program was a continuing success. The presidential
election will be close because 90 percent of Taiwan's voters
have already decided, and they are split 50-50 along
blue-green lines. If Ma wants to win, Hau argued, he should
ignore the remaining "swing voters" and focus on maximizing
KMT voter turnout. Deep-blues like Hau and Lien Chan dislike
the KMT UN referendum, but most recognize it as a necessary
evil and will still vote for Ma. President Chen and the DPP
will continue to "provoke" the U.S. and China in the run-up
to the presidential election, Hau predicted, because Chen's
standing up to U.S. and Chinese pressure energizes the
deep-green base. Hau welcomed assurances that AIT's Neihu
office project was still underway, and predicted that October
10 "National Day" celebration would remain orderly. End
Summary.


2. (C) The Director met with KMT Taipei Mayor Hau Long-bin on
October 4 to discuss KMT party politics, the upcoming
"National Day" celebrations, and current U.S.-Taiwan
relations. Hau also asked about the status of AIT's proposed
new office complex (NOC).

Ma Campaign
--------------


3. (C) Hau told the Director that KMT presidential candidate
Ma Ying-jeou's campaign was "getting better," and that Ma's
long-stay program in southern Taiwan was an ongoing success.
Despite Ma's increasing traction in the south, Hau continued,
the race will still be "very close." This is because the
voting public is almost evenly split along blue-green lines,
with only ten percent of Taiwan's voters remaining undecided.
Hau argued that the current political climate suggests that
Ma can, without any special effort, count on taking at least
half of the "undecideds." But, even if Ma were to exert
himself to appeal to centrist voters, at least 30-40 percent
would still support Ma's opponent, DPP presidential candidate
Frank Hsieh (Chang-ting). It makes more sense for Ma to
focus on energizing the notoriously apathetic KMT base. A
higher-than-average turnout for the presidential election
would bode well for a KMT victory, Hau insisted, because it
would indicate high KMT participation.

KMT UN Referendum
--------------


4. (C) Hau told the Director that he and other KMT leaders,
including Ma and KMT Honorary Chairman Lien Chan, disliked
the KMT UN referendum, but recognized it as a necessary evil.
Hau explained that the KMT "had to" launch its own UN
referendum to match public opinion and to siphon support away
from the DPP version. Hau predicted that, despite objections
to the KMT UN referendum and Ma's other nods to "Taiwan
consciousness," most deep-blues realize the critical
importance of this presidential election and will vote for
Ma, even if it is with "tears in their eyes."


5. (C) In response to Hau's inquiry, the Director remarked
that although both UN referenda are problematic, the DPP
version is worse because it touches on the sensitive issue of
name-change. Hau asserted that the DPP referendum is the
first step in the DPP's plan to "eliminate the ROC."
Although the DPP referendum will almost certainly fail this
time around, he predicted, if the voters ever approve "UN for
Taiwan," the DPP will then push to rename the country
accordingly. The Director noted that, while the U.S.
supports Taiwan charting its own course through democratic
means, the U.S. opposes acts which could provoke cross-Strait
tension with Beijing.


6. (C) Hau claimed that U.S. public opposition to the DPP
referendum had only strengthened support for President Chen
and the DPP. Chen argues to his base that the U.S. is trying
to "bully" Taiwan into submission, and earns points by
"bravely" standing up to U.S. pressure. Hau suggested that,

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while the DPP welcomes U.S. verbal opposition, President Chen
might give in if the U.S. pressured Taiwan's few remaining
diplomatic allies. Hau warned that President Chen will
continue efforts to "provoke" the U.S. and China in the
run-up to the presidential election.

AIT Neihu Project
--------------


7. (C) Hau asked for a status report on AIT's new office
complex. The Director stated that $80 million has already
been set aside to begin initial preparations and construction
at the NOC site, and that it was the Director's personal hope
to hold a public groundbreaking ceremony at the Neihu site
before his departure in 2009. The Director mentioned he
intended to invite Hau, MOFA representatives, and others to
the ceremony. Hau's adviser, Prof. Zhuang Wen-si, remarked
that a public ceremony would help reduce anxiety that the
U.S. was not committed to building a new complex, and
releasing the current property to the Taiwan government. The
Director assured Hau and Zhuang that budget concerns had
merely delayed the NOC project, which the Director hoped
could be completed as early as 2012.

Hau Expects Orderly National Day Celebrations
--------------


8. (C) Hau told the Director he did not expect any
significant public disturbances during the October 10
"National Day" celebration. Former DPP Chairman Shih
Ming-te's "Red Shirt Army" no longer draws large crowds, and
should not present a security concern, Hau predicted.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Hau's views on Taiwan politics are freighted by his
and his father's deep Blue roots. But his observation that
an over-aggressive USG response to the DPP UN referendum
plays to the ruling party's strategy is something we've heard
elsewhere.
YOUNG