KMT CANDIDATE MA YING-JEOU ON PRESIDENTIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002151

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: KMT CANDIDATE MA YING-JEOU ON PRESIDENTIAL
CAMPAIGN AND UN REFERENDUM


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou told
the Director on September 20 that the KMT's UN referendum was
politically necessary to counter the DPP's referendum
proposal. KMT flexibility on nomenclature reflected the fact
that Taiwan had joined several international organizations
under names other than "Taiwan" or the "ROC." Ma was
positive about the results of his home-stay program in
central and southern Taiwan, which had enabled him to
understand the concerns of ordinary Taiwanese and had boosted
his polling numbers in the region. Acknowledging that DPP
candidate Frank Hsieh is also relatively moderate, Ma
suggested that the campaign of his rival was being dragged
down by the Deep Green and by President Chen, who is trying
to avoid becoming a lame duck. End Summary.


2. (C) The Director met with KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou on
September 20 to discuss bilateral issues and the Taiwan
presidential campaign. Ma was accompanied by KMT legislator
Su Chi. The Director briefed Ma on his recent consultations
in Washington, stressing the need for our two sides to look
to the future and to manage the fallout in the relationship
damaged by President Chen's UN referendum. Despite current
problems, the U.S. needs to work with the Chen administration
in areas where we can cooperate, such as resolving the pork
ractopamine issue. The Director reiterated the USG's strong
commitment to work with Taiwan's next president on shoring up
U.S.-Taiwan relations across the board. He also reiterated
our neutrality in Taiwan's democratic process.

UN Referendum
--------------


3. (C) Ma asserted that the two competing UN rallies held by
the DPP and KMT on September 15 had each drawn about 50,000
participants. DPP claims of 500,000 participants in their
rally were highly exaggerated. According to Ma, one needs to
apply an "exaggeration index" to interpreting crowd estimates
put out by the DPP and KMT. The DPP generally overestimates
its demonstrators by a factor of five, while KMT estimates
double the actual size of its supporters. Ma cited his
experience as mayor of Taipei, when both the DPP and the
anti-Chen "Red Shirt" movement had exaggerated numbers of
demonstrators. This had led the Red Shirt movement to
misjudge the degree of public support they enjoyed, Ma added.


4. (C) Ma said the KMT UN referendum proposal was necessary
to counter the DPP's proposal or else the KMT would have
faced a tough campaign. The KMT recognizes the need for
Taiwan to participate in the UN, a goal universally supported
in Taiwan. So far, the pan-Green has not strongly criticized
the KMT proposal, which takes a flexible approach to
nomenclature, recognizing that Taiwan has succeeded in
joining APEC and WTO under names other than "ROC" or
"Taiwan."


5. (C) Ma said he did not expect the DPP to withdraw its UN
referendum proposal, which he attributed to President Chen's
desire to avoid becoming a lame duck. Although this will
probably hurt DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh's
campaign, Chen does not care, Ma suggested. President Chen's
"loud voice" is causing problems for Hsieh, who has
complained to the media. However, Taiwan is a young
democracy, and Lee Teng-hui has provided an example of a
former leader trying to hold on to political power.
President Chen would have problems if he wanted to continue
trying to lead the DPP after a loss in the 2008 presidential
election, Ma suggested, because Hsieh and others would blame
Chen for the defeat. DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun's "normal
country resolution," which has been criticized within his
party, is also dragging down Frank Hsieh's campaign, Ma
noted. However, Yu believes that his duty as DPP chairman is
to promote the fundamental values of his party.

Presidential Campaign
--------------


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6. (C) Ma spoke positively about the results of his
"home-stay" program in central and southern Taiwan, noting
that he had stayed in more than 30 homes. Family members and
large numbers of neighbors had come each evening to talk with
him, which had been a very touching experience, Ma said. The
home-stay program had boosted his polling numbers in central
and southern Taiwan, Ma noted, though his island-wide polling
numbers remained the same.


7. (C) Ma was enthusiastic as he discussed experiences
talking to a group of farmers in southern Pingtung County.
After trying out an ox plow, Ma had asked one older farmer
whether he would be interested in renting his land to a young
professional farmer who could farm more efficiently in a
larger operation. Ma noted to the Director that most of the
farm associations he had talked with agreed with this idea.
The farmer he talked to in Pingtung was also positive, Ma
noted, but someone else had expressed concern about whether
she would be able to get her land back after leasing it out
for twenty years. This was a real concern, Ma told the
Director, which perhaps could be resolved by government
guarantees. Taiwan needs larger farms to be competitive, Ma
suggested.


8. (C) If the government is willing, Ma said, direct
cross-Strait air links could be developed quickly because
airline associations have already held detailed discussions
with their mainland counterparts. With government go-ahead,
only a couple of months would be needed to move from the
current holiday charter flights to weekend charter flights
and then another three months to move to daily charter
flights. Then, the two sides could work out an air agreement
within a couple of months, though legislative requirements
might cause some delay. Currently, Ma said, industry
representatives are very frustrated because of the
government's orders to slow the process.


9. (C) In response to the Director's question, Ma said that
weekend charter flights and subsequent arrangements should be
open to U.S. and other foreign nationals as well as Taiwan
and PRC citizens. However, Beijing is unlikely to allow
foreign carriers to participate in the direct flight links.
Ma acknowledged that Frank Hsieh also supports expanding
cross-Strait charter flights, but added that Hsieh does not
talk much about the issue because he is unsure of reaction
within his own party. According to Ma, this reflects an
ongoing struggle within the DPP over political line, a
problem he claimed the KMT does not have.


10. (C) The presidential race will be very tough, Ma
observed, especially now that Su Tseng-chang is the DPP's
vice presidential candidate. Su strengthens the DPP ticket
because he can draw support from Taiwan's most populous
district, Taipei County, where he previously served as
magistrate. Ma said he expects the election to be close and
is prepared for an "uphill fight." The race is much closer
than indicated by media polls, which are not properly
weighted, Ma observed. Asked about KMT overconfidence in
2000 and 2004, Ma said he was running a different type of
campaign, unprecedented in Taiwan history. Nonetheless,
Taiwan identity and Taiwan independence are clearly distinct.
Taiwan and the ROC are bound together closely and cannot be
differentiated. While it is acceptable to include the name
"Taiwan" together with "ROC" on passports and in
international agreements, it is unacceptable to say one is
running for president of the "Republic of Taiwan," as Frank
Hsieh does (sic). Although he has received some criticism
from the Deep Blue for his emphasis on Taiwan, Ma said, they
will support him because his policies are compatible with
their ideas.


11. (C) If the KMT wins the LY elections and the DPP urges
voters to elect Frank Hsieh as president to maintain
political balance, Ma said he would point to the gridlock of
divided government over the last eight years in asking voters
to choose him. In the unlikely event the DPP wins the LY
elections and he becomes president, Ma suggested he would be
able to handle a divided government because he would practice
French-style cohabitation rather than political confrontation.

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12. (C) Ma predicted he could win swing voters, who want a
better economy. Although Frank Hsieh is moderate, he has a
"noisy" party behind him, especially the 20 percent Deep
Green, who have disproportionate power. Every Green
politician has to listen to the Deep Green, Ma observed,
adding that he does not have this problem with the Deep Blue,
with whom he maintains constant contact. Ma also said that
he has regular contact with Honorary Chairman Lien Chan and
that Lien "understands" his position.


13. (C) Ma noted that Beijing was unhappy with the KMT's UN
referendum, but added that sooner or later the mainland would
have to make a choice between the "ROC" or the "Republic of
Taiwan." In the future, the mainland will need to adjust its
policies on security, economics, and international space, or
it will have problems with Taiwan. If he is president, Ma
suggested, the mainland may show more flexibility because it
will not want the DPP to return to power. The Director noted
the importance for our relationship of the upcoming period
during which both Taiwan and the U.S. will elect new
presidents. Ma stressed his familiar theme, that he would be
a peacemaker, not a troublemaker, if elected president.

Comment
--------------


14. (C) Ma seemed relaxed and upbeat compared to our
previous meetings, reflecting both his acquittal on
corruption charges and the fact that his presidential
campaign has been going more smoothly in recent weeks.
YOUNG