FRANK HSIEH STEERING TOWARDS MAINSTREAM ON UN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002040

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/15/2032
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: FRANK HSIEH STEERING TOWARDS MAINSTREAM ON UN
REFERENDUM

REF: TAIPEI 01971

Classified By: AIT Acting Director Robert S. Wang, Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
politicians remain determined to continue their support for
President Chen Shui-bian's plan to hold a referendum on
entering the UN under the name "Taiwan" despite recent strong
U.S. opposition. DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh
publicly supports the proposal, though he believes President
Chen should not push the issue so forcefully. Hsieh appears
to be seeking ways to minimize the more extreme
pro-independence rhetoric from the Green camp on this issue,
which could undermine his efforts to court centrist voters.
Last week Hsieh and his supporters succeeded in watering down
the DPP "normal country" resolution (reftel) and yesterday,
September 5, he proposed to merge the DPP and KMT UN
referendum, drawing more fire from deep Green hardliners.
End Summary.

DPP, Hsieh Aim to Give Taiwan "Hope"...
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2. (C) Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) politicians
remain determined to continue their support for President
Chen Shui-bian's plan to hold a referendum on entering the UN
under the name "Taiwan" despite recent strong U.S.
opposition. DPP Deputy-Secretary General Hsu Jen-tu,
presidential candidate Frank Hsieh (Chang-ting)'s man at
party headquarters, told AIT on August 31 that Hsieh supports
the referendum, but is well aware of U.S. concerns following
his visit to Washington earlier this summer. Hsieh and the
DPP, knowing entry into the UN is "daunting" and "next to
impossible," nevertheless believe they need to give the
people of Taiwan "some hope" for the future, Hsu explained,
especially during this crucial election year.

...But Hsieh Seeks More Moderate Tone
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3. (C) Hsieh, however, is attempting to keep the deep Green
independence fundamentalists from completely dominating the
issue of Taiwan's UN entry and referendum drive. According
to Taiwan media, Hsieh warned fellow party members during a
September 6 meeting that they had to think more strategically
about the "international scene" and take a long-term approach
to the UN issue. Losing both the 2008 presidential race and
the UN referendum vote, Hsieh argued, is not in Taiwan's and
the DPP's best interests. Hsieh proposed holding talks with
the KMT to field a joint UN referendum that had a higher
chance of passing. Party hardliners Tsai Trong and Chen
Chi-sheng, however, accused Hsieh of "retreating" and said
that if he were elected they would "force" him to pursue
Taiwan name-change and entry into the UN.


4. (C) Close Hsieh advisor and TECRO council member Corey
Chen told AIT on August 31 that while Hsieh believes Taiwan
must play a greater role in international organizations, he
did not want President Chen to push the UN referendum so
strongly. While UN entry appeals strongly to the DPP deep
Green base, Chen explained, it is less effective in drawing
and mobilizing votes from moderate voters even though they
largely support the measure. Of greater concern to Hsieh
campaign strategists is President Chen and deep Green attacks
on the U.S. and their accusation that the U.S. is working
with China to suppress Taiwan. Sustained anti-American
rhetoric, Corey Chen continued, could ultimately weaken Hsieh
and the DPP's credibility with moderate voters who have a
largely positive image of the U.S.


5. (C) Nevertheless, Corey Chen told AIT the Hsieh campaign
plans to use continuing coverage of the UN referendum issue
to highlight Hsieh and KMT presidential candidate Ma
Ying-jeou's contrasting positions on Taiwan identity. Chen
predicted that after the UNGA meeting in mid September other
domestic and economic-related issues would begin to play a
more prominent role in the presidential campaign. Hsieh will
continue, for example, to attack Ma's proposal to create a
"common market" across the Strait as selling out Taiwan jobs

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to low-wage Chinese workers. Absent further developments,
Corey Chen predicted that the anti-U.S. tone of recent media
coverage should have a news cycle of 5-7 days.


6. (C) Chen told AIT that Hsieh's top priority is to win
the presidential election by unifying the party behind him
while moving toward the political mainstream. Former Premier
Su Tseng-chang's decision to run as vice president has
prompted his support base, including the more moderate New
Tide faction, to line up firmly behind Hsieh. The
integration of the two groups is progressing quickly and
Hsieh has instructed his staffers to accommodate Su's people.
Chen argued that this growing DPP unity contrasts markedly
with fissures opening up within the KMT between the "native"
Taiwan faction led by LY President Wang Jin-pyng and the KMT
old-guard leadership.


7. (C) Chen underscored Hsieh's success last week in
moderating the "radical" independence content of the initial
"normal country" resolution proposed by DPP Chairman Yu
Shyi-kun. Although Hsieh told Corey Chen the best outcome
would have been for the resolution to just "go away," his
supporters were at least able to control the content of the
resolution so that it strengthened the more moderate line of
the party's 1999 resolution on Taiwan's future. Deputy
Secretary-General Hsu told AIT that DPP Chairman Yu

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Shyi-kun's radical stance showed he was "out of step" with
the mainstream. Hsu suggested Yu could be forced out of his
position this fall.

...And Deep Greens Hold Hsieh's Feet to the Fire
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8. (C) Deep Green independence fundamentalists have been
particularly adamant in their support of the UN referendum
and critical of U.S. opposition to the measure, as well as of
Hsieh's attempts to move toward a more moderate position in
the presidential race. Lo Chih-Cheng, Secretary-General of
the deep Green Taiwan Society (taiwanshe),told AIT on August
30 that the UN bid and referendum are so popular on Taiwan
that "even the KMT support it." Insisting that Taiwan's push
for entry in the UN does not represent a change in the
"status quo," Lo characterized the U.S. response as an
"overreaction" and an "over interpretation." He argued that
the referendum is in response to Beijing's increasingly
hostile attempts to limit and marginalize Taiwan's
participation in international organizations. People on
Taiwan fear that over the long-term China will further
isolate Taiwan; they need to let the world know of their
concerns. Lo also blasted Hsieh's effort to tone down the
language of the "normal country" resolution, saying that the
Taiwan Society and other groups would continue to pressure
the DPP leadership to make further changes.

Caveat: The Other Face of Frank Hsieh?
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9. (C) DPP maverick legislator Shen Fu-hsiung told AIT on
September 4 that although Frank Hsieh presents a moderate
image and is courting the undecided voters on Taiwan, "you
have to look at the people around him to understand the
'true' Frank Hsieh." The politically moderate Shen said
Hsieh's strategy is to present himself as a mild, reasonable
politician, but surrounds himself with "attack dogs," many of
whom support Taiwan independence. Shen urged the U.S. to
make its opposition to the UN referendum "stronger and
clearer," but in a way that remains respectful and gives face
to President Chen. Shen told AIT that deep Green
fundamentalists believe the U.S. would come to Taiwan's aid
in a cross-Strait conflict, whether sparked by Taipei or
Beijing. Only a stronger U.S. response to the referendum
issue, Shen asserted, would make the deep Greens "get the
message" and reconsider their support for President Chen and
the UN referendum.

Comment
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10. (C) The strong deep Green response to U.S. opposition

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to the UN referendum has complicated DPP presidential
candidate Frank Hsieh's attempt to appease his party's base
while moving to the political mainstream. Hsieh's success
last week in toning down the content of the "normal country"
resolution will likely be difficult to replicate on the UN
referendum drive, whose wording and content have already been
fixed. Although his proposal to merge the DPP and KMT UN
referendums may prove both politically impossible and
technically difficult, the effort is probably designed to
burnish his image as a moderate, practical politician.
WANG