A VIEW FROM OUTSIDE TAIPEI: TAOYUAN MAGISTRATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000020

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/05/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR TW
SUBJECT: A VIEW FROM OUTSIDE TAIPEI: TAOYUAN MAGISTRATE
ERIC CHU ON TAIWAN POLITICS, PRESIDENTIAL RACE


Classified By: AIT Acting Director Robert S. Wang,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: A group of younger KMT leaders are trying
to encourage faltering KMT Chairman and presidential hopeful
Ma Ying-jeou to exert greater leadership over the party,
according to Taoyuan Magistrate and rising KMT star Eric Chu.
They are also trying to convince Ma to increase KMT chances
of returning to power in 2008 by combining forces with
Legislative Yuan (LY) Speaker Wang Jin-pyng and accepting
Wang as his vice presidential running mate. End Summary.


2. (C) The Acting Director met with Taoyuan County
Magistrate Eric Chu (Li-lun) on December 21 to discuss party
politics and the upcoming 2007-2008 legislative and
presidential elections. Chu, one of the most highly regarded
local leaders in Taiwan and a rising star in the KMT, is a
close associate of KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou.

Taoyuan: Wave of Taiwan's Future
--------------


3. (U) Taoyuan booster Eric Chu described his county as the
wave of Taiwan's future. Chu, a native of Taoyuan who
studied in the U.S., described Taoyuan as among the most
international of Taiwan's counties, with 150,000 foreigners
among its 2.5 million residents. Many of these foreigners
work in the high-tech industries that have grown up around
Taoyuan (formerly Chiang Kai-shek) International Airport.


4. (C) Arguing that island politics bubble up from the local
level, Chu claimed that Taoyuan politics are already where
Taiwan is headed. Taoyuan has a strong two-party system led
by Taiwan's two major political parties, the Kuomintang (KMT)
and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Two smaller
parties, the People First Party (PFP) and the Taiwan
Solidarity Union (TSU),have virtually no presence in
Taoyuan, he noted. Rather, these two more radical parties
have already declined precipitously in Taoyuan -- the PFP
going from eight county councilors in 2001 to zero in 2005 --
presaging their decline in the recent Taipei and Kaohsiung
municipal elections. The result of this two-party trend is
that Taoyuan politics tends to be moderate and centrist, with
good inter-party cooperation. Chu noted with pride that the
59-member Taoyuan County Council -- 34 KMT, 15 DPP, 10
non-party -- passed his 2007 budget proposal intact and with
little discord.

The View from Taoyuan
--------------


5. (C) Viewed from outside Taipei, Chu said, two-party
politics is the trend of the future. The KMT's pan-Blue
coalition partner, PFP, for example, is not really a
significant constraint on the KMT, even at the national
level. Chu dismissed PFP bargaining and threats as "just
bluffing." In response to ADIR's comment that Chairman Ma
seemed to believe otherwise, given his efforts to cater to
the PFP in order to maintain the pan-Blue legislative
majority, Chu again insisted the PFP is not important. PFP
"blackmail" over KMT property would not work because PFP
elders themselves are implicit in the KMT party assets issue.
For the PFP to support the DPP's attack on KMT assets,
moreover, would be political suicide since the PFP would lose
its remaining Deep Blue supporters. To ADIR's comment that
KMT-PFP splits had damaged the KMT in the past, Chu replied
that Blue politics in the future would be decided not by how
deep or light Blue, but how strong, a candidate is. Anyway,
he said, PFP Chairman James Soong is already in his
"political grave," and the PFP will fare badly in next year's
legislative election in which the number of LY seats will be
halved.


6. (C) To win the 2007 LY and 2008 presidential elections,
Chu said, the KMT must focus on both the at-large LY seats
and the many government positions that will be available if
the KMT wins the presidency. This would enable the KMT to

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both avoid internal warfare over the reduced number of LY
seats in 2007 elections and to coax PFP legislators back into
the KMT fold without having to give them any of the precious
LY nominations.

Ma as Leader
--------------


7. (C) The main issue facing the KMT in the run up to the
2008 presidential election, Chu suggested, is whether Ma
Ying-jeou can prove himself to be a strong leader. While Ma
has long been out in front in public opinion polls, his lead
in recent weeks has dwindled. Ma must not repeat the
performances of KMT Chairman Lien Chan and Huang Chun-ying,
who were both far out in front in public opinion polls before
the 2004 presidential and last month's Kaohsiung mayoral
elections, but both of whom lost by sitting and waiting for
seemingly certain victory to drop into their laps. Ma may
still be in the lead, Chu said, but with DPP Premier Su
Tseng-chang and former Premier Frank Hsieh both showing

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approval ratings over 20 percent, Ma's 50 percent approval no
longer appears insurmountable, particularly if Su and Hsieh
are able to unite forces and cooperate. Ma, Chu stressed,
must aggressively lead the party to victory in the 2007 LY
and 2008 presidential elections.


8. (C) The challenge, Chu observed, is for Ma to establish
effective leadership over the party and restore his own
public standing. If Ma fails this test over the coming
months, he will also fail in his effort to win the
presidency. Noting that many KMT members complain Ma is
aloof and has few close friends, ADIR asked Chu whom Ma would
turn to for help in his campaign. Chu responded that both he
and Taichung Mayor Jason Hu are long-term friends and
supporters of Ma. ADIR then asked if the recent public
criticisms of Ma by both Chu and Hu indicated divisions
within the KMT, as the press intimated. Chu strongly denied
that their criticisms reflected internal divisions. On the
contrary, he, Hu and Ma represent the new KMT, a more open
and democratic KMT in which there is room for differences and
criticism. His and Hu's purpose, Chu stressed, was merely to
rouse Ma and get him moving on the right path.


9. (C) Ma is the KMT's only viable presidential option, Chu
argued. "We have no one else; there is no other choice."
Regarding recent intimations that LY Speaker Wang Jin-pyng
might run for president, Chu told ADIR that he had recently
met with Wang, whom he calls "Uncle" because of long family
connections. In that meeting, he told Wang that Ma is the
only viable hope for the KMT to regain power in 2008. Wang,
he said, is a very pragmatic politician who knows this full
well, but is trying to bargain a role for himself, perhaps as
Vice President. (Note: Close Wang advisor Chiang Min-chin
told AIT last week that Wang would probably accept the vice
presidential nomination if Ma offered it to him, explaining
that Wang is keeping his distance from Ma and playing hard to
get to improve his own bargaining position. End Note.)
"Uncle," Chu said he told Wang, "you know your record. How
could you win the presidency?", telling ADIR that Wang would
not even be able to win in his home turf in Kaohsiung. The
real problem, Chu told ADIR, is whether Ma would accept Wang.
He and Jason Hu, Chu continued, are trying to build a bridge
between Ma and Wang, since both see a Ma-Wang ticket as the
best chance for KMT victory in 2008.


10. (C) What if Ma is indicted in the Taipei mayoral special
budget case, ADIR asked. That, Chu responded, would be a
"political typhoon" for Taiwan, as most mayors and county
magistrates retain their special budgets just as Ma did. The
difference is that Ma donated his money to charity, a "legal"
use of the funds, Chu argued. Chu said the "political
typhoon" would be so catastrophic to Taiwan's political
system that prosecution of Ma is unthinkable. Nevertheless,
he acknowledged ADIR's point that the public prosecutor
investigating Ma is independent and will probably not be
influenced by these practical political considerations.


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New KMT
--------------


11. (C) Today's KMT, Chu told ADIR, is different from the
old KMT. In the new KMT, led by Ma, Jason Hu, and himself,
there is room for public discussion and criticism. "We
should be critical of Ma these few months," he said, "to
prepare him to run for the presidency." (Note: On this new,
more pragmatic KMT, legislator Ting Shou-chung told AIT
recently that the party has already modified its stance and
no longer supports unification in the near term. Ting also
echoed Eric Chu in stressing that KMT legislators, even those
like himself who have differences with Ma, see no other
option, "We all support Ma and want him to win the
presidency," even while calling for Ma to change and be more
open to his own party. End Note.)

Comment
--------------


12. (C) Ma's public opinion polls have fallen from his
stratospheric approval ratings a year ago, and he faces
rising ratings for Premier Su and Frank Hsieh, who could find
a way to cooperate and challenge Ma. While the criticisms of
Ma by long-time friends Eric Chu and Jason Hu may be as
well-intentioned as Chu claims, those of many KMT legislators
are less benevolent and may reflect nascent internal
jockeying in the aftermath of the somewhat unexpected KMT
loss in the December 9 Kaohsiung mayoral election.
WANG