DPP PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE FRANK HSIEH PICKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 001853

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2017
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: DPP PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE FRANK HSIEH PICKS
FORMER PREMIER SU TSENG-CHANG AS RUNNING MATE

Classified By: AIT Deputy Director Robert S. Wang,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh
announced on August 15 that former Premier Su Tseng-chang has
agreed to be his vice presidential running mate. Although
Hsieh had strongly hinted at this outcome for several days,
Su's agreement came only at the last minute after much
difficult lobbying, the difficulty reflecting intra-party
divisions stemming from the party's contentious presidential
and legislative primaries. Hsieh did not allow his personal
preference for former acting Kaohsiung Mayor Yeh Chu-lan to
deflect basic political calculations. Su will strengthen the
ticket, especially with moderate swing voters and in populous
Taipei County where Su served as a popular county magistrate.
Hsieh will also need Su's substantial support base within
the DPP in order to unify the party ahead of the presidential
election next March. Yeh Chu-lan will play a major role in
Hsieh's campaign and has expressed full support for the
Hsieh-Su ticket. According to media reports, Su will return
to Taipei from the U.S. early on Saturday, August 18, in time
for a meeting with President Chen and Hsieh ahead of
President Chen's upcoming trip to Central America. End
Summary.


2. (C) DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh announced late
in the afternoon on August 15 that former Premier Su
Tseng-chang would be his vice presidential running mate.

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This announcement, made upon return from Hsieh's trip to
Singapore and Indonesia, did not come as a surprise because
over the past several days Hsieh told the press first that he
had invited Su to be his running mate and then that Su had
responded in a positive way, though he had not yet made a
final decision. Su finally accepted Hsieh's invitation to be
his vice presidential running mate in a late evening
telephone conversation on August 14. In discussions with
AIT, close Hsieh advisor and TECRO Council Member Corey Chen
stressed the difficulty of bringing Su on board. Hsieh's
recent comments to the press were intended to give Su both
"face" and "pressure," Chen noted, but Su had seemed annoyed
at being pressured to respond to the August 15 deadline set
by Hsieh. Chen also noted that, contrary to press reports,
Su could have returned from the U.S. in time for the rally
originally planned for the evening of August 15. (Note: This
rally is now planned for two weeks later, with specific date
and venue yet to be decided. End Note.)


3. (C) The selection of Su as running mate ends months of
speculation over whether the nod would go to Su or to former
Vice Premier and former acting Kaohsiung Mayor Yeh Chu-lan.
While Hsieh enjoys excellent relations with Yeh, his
relations with Su, rocky to begin with, were further damaged
by harsh attacks the two camps hurled at each other during
their contentious presidential primary contest last May.
Although Su bowed out of the primary race gracefully, he
resented what he called Hsieh's "trickiness" in winning the
party member vote. Also during the legislative primaries,
many Su supporters, including ones from the moderate New Tide
faction, were defeated by more aggressive rivals from Hsieh's
camp. Friction between supporters of the two contenders has
hurt Hsieh-Su relations, though Hsieh has taken some initial
steps to recruit disaffected Su supporters, for example,
appointing outgoing LY member Bikhim Hsiao as his
international spokesperson.


4. (C) President Chen strongly promoted Su as vice
presidential candidate over the past several months, while
Hsieh kept the issue open but made clear his personal
preference for Yeh Chu-lan. After Yeh publicly underscored
her wish to be Hsieh's running mate, Su indicated he wanted
his name withdrawn from consideration and then departed for
the U.S. on July 29 together with his family. A day before
leaving for the U.S., Su privately told DPP Legislative Yuan
caucus whip Wang Tuo that he would not accept the vice
presidential nomination. Although Wang urged Su to keep an
open mind, Su was insistent. However, Wang observed to AIT,
Su is a politician and therefore he would have to go along if
society demanded that he become the DPP vice presidential
candidate.

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5. (C) On his decision to go with Su rather than Yeh, Hsieh
explained to Corey Chen that "the woman you marry is not
necessarily the woman you love." Chen explained that Hsieh
picked Su rather than Yeh for practical political reasons.
Although Yeh, widow of the famous independence activist Cheng
Nan-jung, appeals to Deep Green supporters, she raises
concerns among the moderate swing voters Hsieh will need to
win the election. In addition, Su adds polling points to the
Hsieh ticket, which Yeh does not do. Global Views Survey
Research Center Director Tai Li-an recently told AIT that
including Su as vice presidential candidate adds seven
percent to Hsieh's poll numbers. Even among Hakka and women,
two groups who should be expected to support Yeh, Su outpolls
her, Tai said, explaining that Hakka voters tend to be
conservative and are therefore reluctant to support Yeh, who
has a radical image. (Note: Traditionally, the Hakka tend to
support the KMT rather than the DPP. End Note.) Recently,
Hsieh commented publicly to a Hakka group that Yeh had not
added anything to his numbers in polls he had conducted in
Hualien and Hsinchu, the latter a Hakka area. Hsieh told the
group it would be meaningless for him to team up with Yeh if
they could not win the election. Another key factor behind a
Hsieh-Su ticket is the need to restore party unity in the
runup to the presidential election next March, unity having
been seriously damaged by contentious presidential and
legislative primaries.


6. (C) In theory, Yeh Chu-lan, a Deep Green Hakka woman
from Miaoli, complements Hsieh, a moderate Taiwanese man from
Taipei. By contrast, Su and Hsieh overlap, both being
moderate and both having political experience in northern and
southern but not central Taiwan. However, Yeh cannot match
Su as a political heavyweight in the DPP, and she has no
significant support base of her own, several contacts have
told AIT. Su, on the other hand, has a very substantial
support base in the New Tide faction and its allies and he
also enjoys strong support from President Chen. Known for
his disciplined work style, demands on his staff, and ability
to get things done, Su was quite popular as premier and
earlier as magistrate of Pingtung and Taipei Counties. His
2001 reelection victory by more than 50,000 votes in
Blue-majority Taipei County was especially impressive. In
the presidential election, Hsieh will hope to capitalize on
Su's popularity in Taipei County, Taiwan's most populous
district, to reduce the KMT advantage in northern Taiwan.


7. (C) Hsieh and Su are both very strong campaigners, who
know how to work with supporters and to stir crowds at
campaign rallies. While Hsieh tends to come across as an
intellectual, common people can identify more easily with Su.
Hsieh and Su may need time to develop a good working
relationship, and friction between their supporters could be
a problem. Corey Chen expects New Tide faction members to
demand promises of jobs in a future Hsieh administration in
return for their support during the presidential campaign.
Chen noted that the New Tide faction is especially strong in
Taichung in central Taiwan, which will be an important
battleground zone during the upcoming presidential election.
Although most observers have been positive about a Hsieh-Su
ticket, Deep Green elder Koo Kwang-ming suggested that Su was
overqualified for a position without much responsibility.


8. (C) Although disappointed that she will not be
representing the Hakka minority in the upcoming election, Yeh
Chu-lan will play a major role in the campaign of Hsieh, who
has assigned an entire floor at his campaign headquarters for
use by Yeh and her team. If Hsieh is elected, he plans to
appoint her as Taiwan's first woman premier, a plan she is
doubtless aware of. Corey Chen stressed to us that Hsieh
will need to spend time with Yeh and hopefully also Su
traveling to Hakka communities to explain to grassroots
supporters that Hsieh, Su, and Yeh are a team working for
Hakka interests. Su, though Taiwanese, is also fluent in the
Hakka dialect, which will help smooth relations with a Hakka
base likely to be disappointed that the Hakka Yeh was not
chosen to be the vice presidential candidate. Corey Chen was
unable to confirm media speculation that Yeh could be a
candidate now for the current Presidential Office Secretary

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General vacancy, but he pointed out filling this position
would be decided by President Chen, not Hsieh.

Comment
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9. (C) With reference to our bilateral relations, both Hsieh
and Su have stressed the need for Taiwan's leaders to
strengthen communication with the U.S. and take U.S.
interests into account as they formulate policies in
sensitive areas. Both are pragmatic and they are relatively
moderate on cross-Strait relations, favoring greater economic
opening, for example. The Hsieh-Su ticket is likely to
eschew the most radical proposals from the Deep Green base
and is expected to pursue a moderate campaign line calculated
to appeal to swing voters in the middle of the political
spectrum.
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