KMT-DPP FACE CHALLENGES IN ATTRACTING YOUTH SUPPORT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 001819

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2017
TAGS: PGOV SOCI TW
SUBJECT: KMT-DPP FACE CHALLENGES IN ATTRACTING YOUTH SUPPORT

Classified By: AIT Deputy Director Robert S. Wang, Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Scholars, party officials, students, and
young professionals all tell AIT that there is a wide gap
between the needs and desires of youth and the programs and
ideologies of the two main parties in Taiwan. Both camps are
working to tailor their messages to appeal to the youth and
capture their votes, the KMT emphasizing the economy and the
DPP stressing national identity, though some contacts doubt
the effectiveness of either theme. Taiwanese youth are
generally put off by politics, which they view as dirty, and
they tend to regard both major parties with equal disdain.
The organizers of a new small third party hope to find the
right message to attract disaffected youth, but the results
so far have been disappoining. End Summary.

The Past Becomes Increasingly Irrelevant...
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2. (C) AIT recently canvassed a variety of contacts from
political parties, academia, and the general public for their
views on the attitudes of Taiwan's youth toward politics.
Jou Yi-cheng, former DPP Youth Affairs Director who recently
founded the Third Society Party, told AIT that he expected
historical issues to play a less prominent role in
determining the party identification of young voters in the
future. This year marks the 20th anniversary of the end of
martial law in Taiwan, he noted, but yesterday's issues and
causes have little effect on young people's attitudes. A
group of students at Taichung's Ming Dao High School in
Taichung told AIT that unlike their parents who lived under
martial law and fought tirelessly for democracy, their own
political decisions are guided by personal preferences rather
than history. The traditional image of the opposition KMT as
a conservative party out of touch with young people and of
the ruling DPP as a "younger" party focused on reform do not
hold sway with Taiwan youth, scholars argue. Academia Sinica
Fellow Wu Nai-teh attributed this shift in perception to the
increasing number of DPP scandals over the past few years,
which has alienated many young supporters. On the other
hand, KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou's reformist
agenda and his movie star appearance have improved his
party's standing with young people, pollster Tai Li-an
explained.

...While Familial Socialization Becomes More Pertinent
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3. (C) According to Academia Sinica Scholar Michael Hsiao,
parental transmission is the major determinant of initial
party identification among young voters. He estimates that
60% of first time voters are influenced by their parents. Wu
Nai-teh agreed with this assessment, adding that family
socialization has been playing an increasingly significant
role in the political socialization of young voters in
Taiwan. One explanation for the high degree of family
influence, according to Russell Hsiao, a 24 year old young
professional, is the absence of other social networks within
Taiwanese society to cultivate and support a political
identity that young people can identify with. Family remains
especially important because peer-to-peer political
socialization is neither well developed nor well-defined, he
explained. At a meeting with high school students in
Taichung, one participant told AIT that young people discuss
politics more openly with their parents at home than with
their friends at school and that many of her friends share
the same political views as their parents.

KMT Approach: Image and the Economy
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4. (C) According to a recent KMT poll, the KMT's approval
rating among young voters surpassed that of the DPP for the
first time. Ma Ying-jeou's spokesman Su Jun-pin told AIT
that he attributed this increase to Ma himself and the image
he projects, adding that Ma's popularity in central and
southern Taiwan is on the rise as a result of his "Long-Stay"
program there, which has been well received by many youth.
KMT Youth Division Director Daniel Hsia told AIT that the
party is working hard to increase its outreach efforts to

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young voters in order to transform young people's
dissatisfaction with the DPP government into ballots. Ma's
positive image helps these efforts, he noted.


5. (C) KMT Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung underscored to AIT the
significant role the economy will play in stimulating young
voter support for the opposition party. Ma is planning to
expand his outreach to young voters by placing heavy emphasis
on the deteriorating state of Taiwan's economy, he explained.
For example, the high university acceptance rate combined
with the shortage of job opportunities upon graduation is a
source of great frustration for many youth. Wu Nai-teh, on
the other hand, downplayed young people's concerns over and
interest in the economy, suggesting this approach will
provide very little gain for the KMT. According to Wu, young
people do not even understand the KMT's economic plan.

DPP Approach: National Identity
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6. (C) Political observers and party officials expect the
DPP to use the debate over national identity to target young
voters. DPP Youth Affairs Director Chou Yung-hong told AIT
that according to DPP's most recent poll, voters aged 20-29
consider Taiwan's bid to join the UN more important than
other age groups. Chou said that his organization plans to
hold a variety of events and symposiums in the next couple of
months to publicize the DPP's position on the national
identity debate. Wu Nai-teh separately told AIT that the DPP
has been trying to turn attention away from corruption and
toward national identity in hopes of securing more young
people's votes.


7. (C) A young professional working with the Third Society
Party told AIT he expected the DPP's stress on national
identity to be counterproductive, having little to no effect
on today's youth. Many youth feel that continuing the
discussion of national identity is increasingly irrelevant,
he said, adding that the DPP's emphasis on identity will
alienate many young voters rather than attract them. Chen
Chi-yu, a legislative assistant, expressed concern to AIT
about the DPP's disconnect with young voters. He noted that
DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun recently voiced his fear that the
party's disconnect with Taiwanese youth could be very costly
to the party.

In search of a Moderating force?
--------------


8. (C) Evidence of youth apathy towards politics can be
found in their stand-off attitude toward political parties.
According to one contact, young people view the KMT and the
DPP in the same light and there is very little either party
can do to persuade young people. Young people view politics
as dirty and are most comfortable expressing their concerns
through student movements rather than through traditional
political channels, he added.


9. (C) Yun Wen-song, Deputy Director of the "Taiwan
ThinkTank" suggested that young voters will likely look more
favorably at smaller parties such as the new Third Society
Party. According to Jou Yi-cheng, the Third Society views
moderate young voters as its core constituency. He noted
that the main challenge his party faces is turning youth
apathy into public support for a relatively unknown party.
This challenge is difficult, however, as the last youth rally
the Third Society organized two weeks ago attracted only
twenty student participants.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Although young people want reform, Taiwan's current
highly polarized political environment has discouraged youth
participation in politics. The DPP's past success in
attracting young people was due to its youthful and reformist
image, but this has been dealt a serious blow by the many
corruption scandals and what is often seen as the party's
poor record of leadership. The KMT's only hope for winning
youth support lies with Ma and his ability to rejuvenate the

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KMT's stodgy, conservative image. Currently, however,
neither party has an edge over the other with Taiwan's youth.


11. (U) This report was prepared by AIT Political Section
Summer Intern Brandon Jackson.
YOUNG