TAIPEI MAYOR HAU LONG-BIN ON PRESIDENTIAL RACE,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 001295

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2017
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: TAIPEI MAYOR HAU LONG-BIN ON PRESIDENTIAL RACE,
LOCAL POLITICS

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary: Taipei Mayor Hau Long-bin (KMT) told the
Director on June 5 that he expects KMT presidential candidate
Ma Ying-jeou to face a tough, close race against DPP opponent
Frank Hsieh. Ma must choose a running mate to strengthen his
appeal with Taiwan-born voters, especially in the south. Hau
predicted that the legislative and presidential elections
will be combined in January 2008 because both the DPP and KMT
see that as to their advantage. Hau said the controversy
over renaming the Chiang Kai-shek Memorial as the National
Taiwan Democracy Memorial Hall has eased as the city and
central governments have reached an informal truce to let
both names co-exist. Hau said he is moving forward on plans
to clean up Taipei's waterways, and he pledged to support
AIT's Neihu New Office Compound (NOC) project. End Summary.

A Close Presidential Race, Even in Taipei
--------------


2. (C) The Director met with Taipei Mayor Hau Long-bin (KMT)
at his office on June 5 to discuss political developments and
Taipei City issues. Hau was accompanied by long-time
supporter and political advisor NTU Prof. Zhuang Wen-si, who
continues to work for Hau on a part-time basis. Hau
predicted that the 2008 presidential race between KMT
candidate Ma Ying-jeou and DPP candidate Frank Hsieh will be
close. Hau explained that he defeated his DPP mayoral
opponent Frank Hsieh by a margin of 170 thousand votes, while
PFP Chairman and independent mayoral candidate James Soong
(Chu-yu) cornered another 50 thousand "Blue" votes.
According to Hau, this suggests that in Taipei the KMT has a
built-in advantage of 220 thousand votes. Even though Taipei
is generally considered "safe" territory for the KMT, Hau
continued, Hsieh still managed to win 41 percent of the vote.
According to Hau, Ma will need to increase the KMT margin in
Taipei to 270 thousand votes to win the overall election
island-wide.

Running Mate Considerations
--------------


3. (C) The biggest decision facing both KMT candidate Ma
Ying-jeou and DPP candidate Frank Hsieh (Chang-ting)
currently is the choice of vice-presidential running mate.
Ma might choose KMT Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung, a Taiwan Hakka,
to strengthen the ticket's appeal to the Hakka and hopefully
the Taiwanese, Hau suggested. Hau said he disagreed with the
view of many in the KMT that the most formidable DPP ticket
would combine Hsieh with former premier Su Tseng-chang. Su
has a strong administrative background and is a dogged
campaigner, but he doesn't add much demographic pull, Hau
argued. Yeh Chu-lan, who served as acting mayor in Kaohsiung
following Hsieh, has strong support in the former KMT
strongholds of Miaoli and Hsinchu. As a woman and a Hakka,
Yeh can steal support from Ma in those two important
demographics. If Hsieh has his way, Hau predicted, he will
choose Yeh.

Candidates Race to the Middle
--------------


4. (C) The Director remarked that both Ma Ying-jeou and Frank
Hsieh seemed to be "racing to the middle" in the early stages
of their presidential campaigns, apparently in an attempt to
appeal to the light-Green and light-Blue "swing voters." Are
KMT leaders or voters concerned by Ma's moves to the center?
Hau said that some Deep Blue supporters are concerned by Ma's
embrace of "Taiwanese sensibilities," but they will not
abandon him at the polls. Hau asserted that Hsieh is able to
appeal to both Blue and Green voters by telling them exactly
what they want to hear, but he cannot be trusted. If Ma were
to ask his advice, Hau would recommend that Ma "attack Hsieh
continuously," and "not respond to anything Hsieh says or
does." When the Director mentioned that some observers have
questioned Ma's toughness, Hau quickly sprang to Ma's
defense. As sitting Taipei mayor, Hau said he fully
understood all that Ma had accomplished during his time as
mayor, despite considerable adversity. Ma is not a strong
self-promoter, Hau continued, and therefore his campaign must

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find good people to perform that function for him.

Combined Elections in January 2008
--------------


5. (C) Commenting on the Central Election Commission's recent
decision to hold the upcoming legislative election on January
12, 2008 rather than in December 2007, Hau predicted that
the CEC will also move to hold the presidential election on
the same day. Hau explained that Hsieh and the DPP believe
holding both elections near the anniversary of the February
28 Incident and the PRC's passage of the Anti-Secession Law
will boost Green voter turnout. For their part, Hau
continued, KMT leaders hope Ma will benefit from KMT
legislators' grassroots campaigns, and that the legislators
will enjoy the "coat-tail" effect of Ma's popularity. Since
both sides see the combined election as to their advantage,
it will come to pass, Hau predicted.

Chiang Memorial Dispute Simmers Down
--------------


6. (C) Hau said that President Chen's move to rename the
Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall as the "National Taiwan
Democracy Memorial Hall" had caused some friction with the
Ministry of Education, but had done little to worsen the city
government's already poor relationship with the central
government. Hau and Zhuang said the Taipei City and central
governments had reached an "informal truce" on the matter,
agreeing to let both names "coexist" for the time being. Hau
said he did not expect the Legislative Yuan to act either,
for lack of a workable solution. (Note: An LY committee
controlled by the KMT voted to block the name change on June
7, but the issue remains in dispute. End Note.)


7. (C) The Director asked whether it was difficult for the
KMT to generate support for Chiang Kai-shek. Hau said more
than 500,000 of Taiwan's voters, mostly older people, still
held Chiang in high regard. Nonetheless, Hau said he opposed
the name change not because it disparaged Chiang's
reputation, but because the DPP central government was trying
to change the name without LY approval, in violation of
relevant laws. Hau told the Director that, although he gave
the KMT leadership advance notice of his plan to oppose the
name change, he did not coordinate his response with them.

A Mayor's Work is Never Done
--------------


8. (C) Hau told the Director that much of the work during his
first six months in office has been tedious, but significant
progress has already been made on several fronts. Hau
credited his team of advisors for their diligence and
creativity. Hau mentioned that he meets once a month with
Taipei County Magistrate Chou Hsi-wei to coordinate efforts
to clean up the polluted Danshui River, the centerpiece issue
of his mayoral campaign. Hau stated he intends to expand
cleanup efforts to include the Keelung River, once the
Danshui project is well underway. All told, Hau expects the
City and County of Taipei to spend NTD 20 billion (USD 600
million) on waterway cleanup efforts over the next four
years. Although he supports consolidating the now separate
governments of Taipei City and Taipei County, Hau predicted
that such a merger would not be completed within the four
years of his first term. Hau claimed that cooperation
between the two governments has increased significantly since
he took office.

Hau Pledges Support to Neihu NOC
--------------


9. (C) The Director informed Hau that AIT is ready to begin
construction at the Neihu site, but needs Hau's cooperation
to remove one remaining obstacle. The Taipei City Department
of Urban Planning notified AIT on June 4 that a "rear access
road" essential to the security design of the building could
not be built. This came as a complete surprise to AIT, the
Director continued, especially since AIT has been working
closely with Urban Planning for over three years. This issue
must be resolved quickly, the Director told Hau, otherwise

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AIT might miss an important budget request deadline. Hau
promised to do his utmost to resolve the problem quickly,
remarking that "where there is a will, there is a way."
YOUNG