KMT WINS KEELUNG MAYORAL RACE, CLOSE TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001076

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2032
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: KMT WINS KEELUNG MAYORAL RACE, CLOSE TO
NOMINATIONS DEAL WITH PFP

REF: A. TAIPEI 0841


B. TAIPEI 1069

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary: KMT candidate Chang Tong-rong won the
mayoral by-election in Keelung City on May 12, defeating PFP
legislator Liu Wen-hsiung, who ran as an independent, by 19
points. Liu congratulated Chang on his victory, and pledged
to offer his assistance. KMT Vice Chairman John Kuan told
AIT that the KMT and PFP have put the contentious Keelung
mayoral race behind them and have finished "ninety percent"
of an agreement to share nominations for this December's
Legislative Yuan elections. PFP legislator Daniel Hwang told
AIT the agreement is moving forward because the KMT, faced
with a united DPP, "has no other choice." End Summary.

KMT Wins in Keelung
--------------


2. (U) Keelung City voters went to the polls on May 12 to
cast votes in a mayoral by-election, required by the death of
Mayor Hsu Tsai-li in February. The KMT and PFP had agreed
after Hsu's death to use a two-step primary process to elect
one "Pan-Blue" candidate, but the agreement fell apart in
early April. Chang received the KMT nomination, and Liu
decided to run as an independent. In ref A, AIT discussed
whether the split would harm prospects for Pan-Blue unity in
the run-up to this December's LY election.


3. (U) KMT Keelung City Council speaker Chang Tong-rong won
the election with 47 percent of the vote, defeating PFP
legislator Liu Wen-hsiung by a margin of 19 points. Voter
turnout was unexpectedly low, at just over 40 percent of the
eligible voting population. The DPP candidate Shyh Shyh-ming
placed third, with 23 percent of total votes cast.


4. (U) Chang announced his victory before the polls had
closed. In his concession speech, Liu urged the mayor-elect
to honor his campaign promises, and offered his assistance to
Chang in the future. According to press reports, a small
crowd of Liu's supporters in Keelung City were less
conciliatory, threatening to vote for DPP presidential
candidate Frank Hsieh over KMT nominee Ma Ying-jeou.

Pan-Blue Cooperation Just Around the Corner?
--------------


5. (C) KMT Vice Chairman John Kuan (Kuan Chung) told the
Deputy Director on May 14 that the KMT and PFP have completed
"ninety percent" of the work on an agreement to share
nominations for this December's Legislative Yuan (LY)
elections. Progress has been possible, Kuan continued,
because PFP legislators have realized they have virtually no
chance of surviving the next election without KMT financial
and political support. Ironically, Kuan argued, PFP
legislators like Liu Wen-hsiung sometimes enjoy higher
approval and popularity ratings than their KMT counterparts,
but voters don't vote for them because everyone knows the PFP
is no longer viable. Kuan asserted that PFP Chairman James
Soong is so confident that a nomination-sharing agreement
will be reached that Soong departed Taiwan for the U.S. on
May 7, leaving the matter to his deputies. (Note: Press
reports say Soong is expected to return in August. End note.)


6. (C) PFP legislator and policy director Daniel Hwang
(Yih-jiao) told AIT on May 14 that nomination-sharing
negotiations with the KMT "are on the right track," and a
final agreement should be reached in the near future. The
KMT is willing to compromise, Hwang argued, because Ma
Ying-jeou and KMT Chairman Wu Bo-hsiung recognize that a
divided Pan-Blue could lose many legislative seats to a
united DPP. Thus far, Hwang continued, the KMT has agreed to
reserve four district and two at-large nominations for PFP
candidates, and could agree to two more districts and one
more at-large seat in the next week or so.


7. (C) Hwang complained that just two weeks ago, it appeared
that he would be representing the Pan-Blue in one of the
three districts in Taichung; now, it appears he may have to
face a primary against KMT legislator Hung Chao-nan. Hwang

TAIPEI 00001076 002 OF 002


said KMT political leaders in Taichung pressured the KMT
Central Standing Committee (CSC) to reconsider its original
promise to him. (Comment: KMT Taichung Mayor Jason Hu told
the Director on May 11 that he had threatened to publicly
criticize the CSC for disregarding the wisdom of local
political leaders in choosing legislative candidates -- see
ref B. Hwang's predicament suggests the CSC took Hu's threat
seriously. End comment.)

Comment
--------------


8. (C) The KMT and PFP seem to have reached their respective
bottom lines on nomination-sharing. Barring some unforeseen
rift between the two parties, the KMT seems willing to give,
and the PFP willing to accept, six district and three
at-large nominations for December's LY election. Party
leaders have not discussed the particulars of unifying the
two parties, but this could be little more than a
technicality if the PFP nominees agree to run under the KMT
banner.
YOUNG