FRANK HSIEH WINS DPP PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 001023

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/06/2032
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: FRANK HSIEH WINS DPP PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Former Premier Frank Hsieh is set to be
named the DPP's presidential nominee following his
surprisingly strong victory in the May 6 party primary.
Premier Su Tseng-chang, DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun, and Vice
President Annette Lu have pledged to support Hsieh, and all
four have said they will work to quickly restore party unity
to begin the campaign against KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou in
the presidential election, which will be held in January or
March, 2008. Hsieh is a strong candidate and the contest
between Hsieh and Ma is expected to be close. During the
primary, Hsieh campaigned on a moderate platform that may
allow a more flexible cross-Strait approach and a smoother
legislative process than has existed during the Chen years.
End Summary.

Comment
--------------


2. (C) That Hsieh and Ma are the DPP and KMT candidates is
good news for cross-Strait stability and U.S.-Taiwan
relations. Both Hsieh and Ma are cautious, pragmatic, and
relatively moderate. While the election campaign may become
heated, especially rhetorically, Ma and Hsieh will have to
compete for the political center ground to win a majority of
the votes. This should keep a check on most radical moves
during the election period. End Comment.


3. (C) DPP voters on Sunday also selected party list and
individual district candidates for the Legislative Yuan (LY)
elections to be held in December 2007 or January 2008. A
public opinion poll later this month on the LY candidates,
plus a limited number of nominations by the DPP chairman,
will complete the process of fielding a unitary DPP slate for
the 2008 legislature. We will report the DPP LY primary
results septel.


4. (C) Following former Premier Frank Hsieh's victory in the
primary vote by DPP members on May 6, Premier Su Tseng-chang,
DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun, and Vice President Annette Lu
conceded. At a special meeting the evening of May 7, the DPP
Central Executive Committee will cancel the planned second
stage of the presidential primary process (a public opinion
poll) and is likely to make a formal announcement that Frank
Hsieh (Chang-ting) is the DPP's presidential nominee. Hsieh
will run against Ma Ying-jeou, the KMT presidential candidate
announced by that party's Central Standing Committee on May

2. The presidential election will be held in either January
or March, 2008, with the new president taking office May 20,

2008.


5. (C) Frank Hsieh won the May 6 primary election with 44.7
percent of the votes, well ahead of the 33.4 percent for
Premier Su Tseng-chang, 15.8 percent for DPP Chairman Yu
Shyi-kun, and 6.2 percent for Vice President Annette Lu. The
56 percent turnout was slightly lighter than expected. Su
was disappointed by his weak showing in Taipei County, where
he had been a popular magistrate from 1997 to 2004, his
failure to win several counties in southern Taiwan despite
endorsements by DPP magistrates, and the failure of the
reformist New Tide and other key factions to deliver the
votes. In Taipei and Kaohsiung Cities, Su did especially
poorly, losing to Hsieh by two-to-one and three-to-one
margins.


6. (C) In a discussion with AIT, Academia Sinica Research
Fellow Hsu Yung-ming attributed Hsieh's victory to his
success in uniting the political forces that opposed the New
Tide faction, which supported Su. Hsieh capitalized on the
relentless attacks by the Deep Green against the New Tide,
who they charged with being too close to China and disloyal
to the DPP and President Chen during the difficult period
last summer and fall when the opposition was trying to unseat
Chen over corruption allegations. Hsu believed that a
significant number of voters who opposed the New Tide had
shifted from supporting Yu to supporting Hsieh at the last
minute because they viewed Hsieh as having a better chance of
winning the election. In addition, Hsu said, Hsieh adeptly
played the role of a victim after the publication several

TAIPEI 00001023 002 OF 003


days before the election of a leaked confidential
prosecutor's document alleging corruption by Hsieh. Hsieh's
approach is always low-key, Hsu explained, gaining credit for
self-restraint, while his legislator foot-soldiers fight
no-holds-barred battles with Hsieh's opponents.


7. (C) DPP Legislator Bikhim Hsiao told us that while she
had supported Su over Hsieh, this outcome will give her party
a strong run at the presidency. Su, she said, had in the end
been hampered in his role as Premier by the time and energy
required to scrap with the pan-Blue LY majority on budget and
Central Election Commission issues. Meanwhile, the
experienced Hsieh ran a surprisingly effective campaign. The
task within the DPP now is to put aside the rancor of the
campaign and rally around its winner, Frank Hsieh. Hsiao
confirmed that President Chen had been quietly campaigning
for Su, but said this was not a major factor in the outcome,
as Chen ultimately wanted the strongest candidate to win --
and he did.


8. (C) The primary competition turned tense in the late
stages over the document leak and over charges by the other
candidates that Su was misusing the premiership to promise
local projects in return for political support. Not
surprisingly, charges and counter-charges have created some
rifts and bitterness in the party. Following the primary
election, however, the four candidates have quickly expressed
a desire to unite and work together to defeat the KMT,
although VP Lu has had some bitter words for both the party
headquarters and President Chen. Restoring unity will take
time and effort, and Hsieh may be in no hurry to select a
running mate. In thanking his supporters following the vote,
Hsieh singled out former Kaohsiung Acting Mayor Yeh Chu-lan
for special praise, underscoring her status as a potential
vice presidential candidate. Su and the Hsieh camp traded
some harsh words over the leaked document at the end of the
campaign. Nonetheless, the possibility of Su becoming the
vice presidential candidate should not be ruled out, if Hsieh
and other DPP leaders conclude that this will help unite the
party's factions and win the presidential election against
Ma.


9. (C) Hsieh and President Chen share a common interest in
winning the presidential election in 2008. Therefore, they
will work together now to keep the DPP in power. However,
Hsieh is very much his own man, with ideas and an approach to
politics that differ significantly from those of Chen. If
Hsieh is elected president, Chen is likely to lose influence
quickly, Hsu Yung-ming predicted. Hsu also suggested the
possibility of some personnel changes, including a change in
premier, perhaps as early as May 20, the anniversary of
Chen's inauguration and the beginning of his final year in
office.


10. (C) Despite criticism from the Deep Green throughout the
primary campaign, Frank Hsieh maintained a consistent
position that he would work within the existing status quo
framework toward achieving long-term DPP goals.
Specifically, he did not deviate from his opinion that Taiwan
currently has a "one China" constitution, although, he added,
this needs to be changed when there is overwhelming public
support. In staking out a relatively flexible cross-Strait
position, Hsu Yung-ming suggested, Hsieh may be hoping to
have the type of dialogue with PRC leaders that has always
eluded President Chen. During the campaign, Hsieh also
stated repeatedly that he would work with members of the
opposition to create a legislative majority so that the
government could act on that legislation which did not raise
cross-Strait sensitivities.


11. (C) In Taipei, the watch has already begun on Hsieh
versus Ma. Ma and Hsieh both studied law at top universities
overseas, Ma at Harvard and Hsieh at Kyoto University, and
both have been party chairmen and mayors of major cities, Ma
in Taipei and Hsieh in Kaohsiung. Both are relatively
low-key and moderate. While Ma is a popular figure, Hsieh
has an advantage in greater experience in election campaigns,
both winning and losing, and in grassroots political work.
Two polls conducted by the pro-Blue United Daily News one
week apart, before and after the DPP primary, showed the gap
between Ma and Hsieh narrowing from 52-21 to 43-28. Because

TAIPEI 00001023 003 OF 003


this type of poll generally undercounts DPP support by ten or
more percentage points, the real margin between Hsieh and Ma
may already be close. Hsu Yung-ming predicted we should
expect a close hard-fought election between Hsieh and Ma.

YOUNG