KMT-PFP COOPERATION, CONFLICT OVER LEGISLATIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001005

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2032
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: KMT-PFP COOPERATION, CONFLICT OVER LEGISLATIVE
NOMINATIONS


Classified By: AIT Deputy Director Robert S. Wang, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D)
.


1. (U) Summary: The opposition KMT and PFP continue to
grapple over sharing nominations for this December's
legislative elections. Over the protests of its own would-be
candidates, the KMT has been forced to compromise because it
needs PFP cooperation to block a DPP bill crafted to derail
Ma Ying-jeou's presidential campaign. Bargaining has begun
in earnest, but there will be plenty of opportunities before
December for the KMT-PFP rivalry to split the fragile
pan-Blue coalition. End Summary.

KMT Gives A Little
--------------


2. (C) Kuomintang (KMT) and People First Party (PFP) leaders
signed an agreement on April 20 outlining a joint nomination
process for this December's Legislative Yuan (LY) elections.
The agreement commits the KMT to nominate at least five PFP
legislators for this year's district and at-large legislative
elections. In districts with a PFP incumbent and no KMT
incumbent, the PFP incumbent will receive the nomination, and
vice versa. In districts where there are incumbents from
both parties, a single candidate would be chosen based on the
combined results of a party primary and public opinion polls.


But Only Because It Had To
--------------


3. (U) The KMT made this agreement under duress. The PFP
had threatened to support a DPP bill that could have forced
KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou, who is on trial for allegedly
misusing his Taipei mayoral budget, out of the presidential
race. The DPP legislation, dubbed the "Ma Exclusion Bill,"
would amend existing electoral laws to preclude anyone
convicted of corruption in the first trial from competing in
any election. (Note: In Taiwan's three-trial system, a
conviction is not "final" until after the third guilty
verdict. Current campaign laws do not exclude a candidate
until then. End note.)


4. (C) On April 17, PFP legislators failed to attend the LY
Procedural Committee meeting, enabling the DPP to use its
temporary majority to put the "Ma Exclusion Bill" on the LY
agenda. PFP legislator and executive policy director Daniel
Hwang (Yih-jiao) told AIT that the PFP had informed the DPP
in advance that its members would sit out the April 17
Procedural Committee vote. Without PFP cooperation, the KMT
was unable to stop the "Ma Exclusion Bill" from making it
onto the LY agenda.


5. (C) When the "Ma Exclusion Bill" was sent to the LY floor
for consideration on April 20, however, PFP legislators
cooperated with the KMT to block the bill, sending it back to
the Procedural Committee. Hwang told AIT the PFP change was
due to a KMT pledge to reach a nomination-sharing agreement
within two weeks (by May 1). The two parties will meet
today, May 3, to try to finalize a nomination sharing
agreement under the PFP threat to once again allow the "Ma
Exclusion Bill" to go forward in the LY.

Parties Inching Toward Bottom Line
--------------


6. (C) Hwang told AIT the PFP will continue to publicly
demand that the KMT cede 13 LY seats (10 district and three
at-large seats),because PFP Chairman Soong feels "betrayed"
by Ma's repudiation of a reported December 2006 promise to
that effect. When pressed on his bottom line, however, Hwang
admitted that the PFP could probably settle for a
seven-plus-three arrangement. KMT legislator and Ma advisor
Wu Yu-sheng, who is involved in the KMT-PFP
nomination-sharing negotiations, told AIT that the most the
KMT will give the PFP is seven (5 district and 2 at-large)
spots. According to press reports, the KMT Standing
Committee yesterday, May 2, agreed to concede six district
seats to the PFP. A reported meeting between the two parties
today, May 3, is intended to finalize cooperation. If this
fails, Wu told AIT, continued PFP "blackmail" of the KMT

TAIPEI 00001005 002 OF 002


could backfire on the PFP and cause pan-Blue voters to
abandon the PFP altogether.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Pressure within the KMT to hoard nominations to
itself is likely to grow. The KMT just completed the first
phase of its three-phase legislative primary process and
already two high-profile incumbents have been forced out of
contention. One is challenging the legitimacy of the KMT's
party primary system and the other vowed to run despite his
defeat. Finalizing a KMT-PFP nomination-sharing agreement
would help ensure KMT prospects for achieving an LY majority
in December. Failure, on the other hand, could resurrect
direct competition between the two parties and increase the
prospects for once again splitting pan-Blue votes and giving
additional LY seats to the ruling DPP.
YOUNG