HOWARD,S COALITION BARELY HANGING ON IN CENTRAL

CONFIDENTIAL SYDNEY 000465

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR AS
SUBJECT: HOWARD,S COALITION BARELY HANGING ON IN CENTRAL
QUEENSLAND

REF: A. SYDNEY 461

B. SYDNEY 306

C. SYDNEY 371

Classified By: Poloff Casey Mace for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C/NF) The National Party and Labor Party are engaged in a
knife's-edge contest in the central Queensland seat of Flynn,
where a heavily-funded campaign by the unions and repeat
visits by opposition leader Kevin Rudd have chipped away at
the National Party's lead. A newly created parliamentary
seat, Flynn has been regarded by the Labor party as a target
of opportunity because it does not need to unseat an
incumbent. For the Coalition, Flynn is a must win in
Queensland to stem a tide of losses it will likely endure
around the state capital of Brisbane. At this point,
independent observers from the area believe the National
Party candidate continues to maintain the edge. The
Coalition looks to be in a stronger position to defend the
seat of Hinkler, just south of Flynn, where the National
Party incumbent enjoys an eight-point margin and is facing a
weak opponent disliked by local media. Labor's only
incumbent in central Queensland, Kirsten Livermore, should
hold her seat of Capricornia despite her relatively small
margin of four points and a spirited challenge by her
National Party opponent. End Summary

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The Battle for Flynn
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2. (C/NF) The seat of Flynn stretches from the Labor-leaning
coastal city of Gladstone through a massive expanse of
Nationals-leaning rural towns in the center of the state. It
is located in National Party heartland, where a hearty mix of
ranchers and farmers slightly outnumbers workers employed by
local coal mines, aluminum smelters, and port facilities.
Small business operators and service providers in Flynn's
major city and rural towns control the balance. Based on
vote tallies from the last election, the National Party has a
7.7 percent margin over the Labor party. The National Party
candidate, Glenn Churchill, is a local mayor for the rural
center of Banana Shire. The independent mayor of Gladstone,
Peter Corones, told poloff October 24 that Churchill has
slightly better name recognition than his opponent throughout
the seat of Flynn. Churchill's campaign manager, Kim Black,
is optimistic her candidate will win the contest, but she
admitted it is a very close race. Black said that the Labor
party is outspending the Churchill campaign by three to one,
including a big TV ad blitz in July and August. Churchill
has a stronger grassroots network on the ground, however, and
has staffed three campaign offices in the seat, which is one
more office than the Labor opponent. Moreover, Black said
that, while Labor opponent Chris Trevor is well-known in the
Gladstone area, Trevor has not worked hard enough in the
rural parts of the seat to gain traction.


3. (C/NF) The Labor Party has aggressively campaigned in the
seat of Flynn, and campaign staffers are optimistic that
their local candidate is strong enough to capitalize on
Rudd's national appeal. Labor candidate Trevor runs a
Gladstone law firm and has served on the city council. He
raised his profile in the Gladstone area when he ran against
the independent state MP in the 2006 Queensland state
election. Although Trevor lost the contest, he achieved a
swing of votes in Labor's favor. Since he unofficially began
campaigning in January, Trevor has been joined on the
campaign trail by Kevin Rudd on four or five different
occasions and by 14 different shadow ministers. Campaign
manager Jonathan Persley confirmed to poloff October 24 that
the Labor party has spent a huge amount of money of
billboards, television ads, and direct mail brochures. In
addition, the Australia Council of Trade Unions (ACTU)
deployed a campaign advisor to Flynn in February and has
spent additional money on a campaign criticizing Howard's
industrial relations reforms.


4. (C/NF) The Liberal Party is running local businessman
Jason Rose. Although Rose has come relatively late to the
contest -- he started his campaign in August -- he is
spending party and personal resources on a string of
billboards and television advertisements. Nonetheless,
National candidate Churchill and Labor candidate Trevor are
the main contenders according to Mayor Corones and Mathew
Ovenden, the editor of Flynn's largest newspaper, the
Gladstone Observer. Mayor Corones believes Churchill
maintains the edge and will likely win the election in Flynn.
Enough voters will be afraid to elect the union-dominated


Rudd leadership team on top of a Labor state government,
according to Corones. Ovenden also believes Churchill is
still out in front at the moment, due largely to his higher
profile outside of Gladstone. Ovenden pointed out that the
bookies still favor Churchill to win, according to research
his paper had done on the candidates' standings among betting
agencies.

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The National Party Defense of Hinkler
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5. (C/NF) National Party incumbent Paul Neville enters the
battle for Hinkler with the relatively large margin of 8.3
percent, but the Labor Party is making a hard run at it.
Kevin Rudd has visited the seat twice in the last several
months to campaign for local Labor candidate Garry Parr. The
National Party has long relied on its traditional support
from the sugarcane, fruits, and vegetables farmers who
dominate Hinkler's economy. The Labor Party, however, is
hoping it can make inroads into the growing retirement
communities around Hervey Bay and along the coast towards
Bundaberg, Hinkler's largest city. Neville's campaign
manager, Rod Wilson, acknowledges that the pensioners and
retirees comprise a battleground constituency for the
upcoming election. Wilson said that Neville has focused much
of his campaigning in the Hervey Bay area. Parr's campaign
manager, Aaron Broughton, said that he is hoping the same key
issues for Labor nationally - health, education, and a more
balanced industrial relations system - will resonate with the
retirees, many of whom have moved up from large cities where
Labor is a better brand. (Note: The day after poloff visited
Hinkler, Prime Minister Howard announced an AUD 4 billion
package of rebates and subsidies for senior citizens, which
should help the Coalition with Hinkler's retirees.)


6. (C/NF) In contrast to Neville's 14-year experience as
Hinkler's MP, this election is Parr's first foray into
politics. A local real estate agent and former civil
servant, Parr has drawn criticism from local media for
brushing off requests for comment. Neville's press officer
Kate Barwick told poloff Parr has been in some cases abusive
towards local reporters in his efforts to brush them off.
Lucy Ardern, the editor for Hinkler's largest newspaper the
Bundaberg News Mail, confirmed that Parr has not been deft in
his dealings with the media. Ardern told poloff October 23
that some of Parr's "behaviors that could be unattractive to
voters" could come to the fore. She admitted that the Labor
party's success nationally was improving the party's standing
in Hinkler, but Ardern asserted that Parr is a weak local
candidate. As a matter of policy, Ardern said her paper does
not endorse candidates in an election. On the other hand,
Ardern is prepared to have her newspaper come out against a
candidate it determines unfit for office -- a course of
action Ardern said was "very possible." In addition to his
media woes, Parr also suffered a setback October 23 when the
last labor MP for the seat of Hinkler, Brian Courtice, told
reporters he would not vote Labor in the coming election.
Stirring national controversy, Courtice said, "the electorate
needs a safe pair of hands and I believe those hands are John
Howard's."

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Capricornia to Remain in Labor Hands
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7. (C/NF) The seat of Capricornia, which is dominated by the
regional hub of Rockhampton, has been the lone Labor outpost
in central and northern Queensland. Labor MP Kirsten
Livermore has held the seat since 1998 and currently holds a
four-point margin. A former railway hub for upstate
Queensland, Rockhampton developed into a regional commercial
center where a large state hospital and numerous boarding
schools provide health and education services to the
surrounding farms and ranches. As a result, labor-leaning
health workers and teachers have swayed the seat for much of
its history. Livermore's campaign manager Barry Large is
confident Livermore will win reelection, especially with the
country favoring Rudd in the polls. Nonetheless, Capricornia
is Labor's second most marginal seat in Queensland, and
National party candidate Robert Mills is determined to fight
for it. A local businessman and former candidate for the
state seat of Rockhampton, Mills is hoping that anger over
the state government's move to consolidate local councils
(ref. C) will work in his favor. The issue, however, is more
controversial in rural parts of the electorate where the
Nationals already enjoy support. The National Party campaign
manager in the neighboring electorate of Flynn, Kim Black
(protect),confided that Kirsten Livermore is a popular
member and should win reelection.

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COMMENT
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8. (C/NF) Flynn would be a crucial win for Labor and a
devastating loss to the Coalition. The National Party
candidate seems to be anecdotally more popular than his local
opponent, but the question on election day will be if he is
more appealing than a nationally popular Kevin Rudd. The
Labor party is certainly hoping that the small businesses and
service providers that control the balance in the seat of
Flynn will vote for change. The Coalition cannot afford to
lose a heartland seat like Flynn. The National Party looks
stronger, and the Labor Party weaker, in the neighboring
electorate of Hinkler. But Rudd, and Labor Party resources,
are unrelenting. The National Party is barely holding on to
key seats in central Queensland, but it alone cannot save the
Coalition from defeat. The Liberal Party in Queensland will
need to defend its northern seats of Leichardt and Herbert,
and a raft of seats under threat around Brisbane. End
Comment.
FERGIN