QUEENSLAND'S LEICHARDT SEAT WITHIN LABOR'S REACH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SYDNEY 000461

SIPDIS


NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2017
TAGS: AS PGOV
SUBJECT: QUEENSLAND'S LEICHARDT SEAT WITHIN LABOR'S REACH

REF: SYDNEY 371

Classified By: Consul General Judith R. Fergin. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (SBU) Summary. Both the Liberals and the AFP have
grounds to hope that they will win the northern Queensland
constituency of Leichardt, according to local political
observers and the candidates themselves. With the advantages
of incumbency and a lively candidate, the Liberals have a
fighting chance of retaining the seat. But even pro-Liberal
commentators observed that a Labor victory was a big, but not
impossible, task. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) Liberal MP Warren Entsch has held the northern
Queensland seat of Leichardt since 1996. When he announced
his intention to retire, the door opened to a three-way race
among the Liberal, Coalition partner National, and Labor
parties. The successful candidate will need to attract
voters from a far-flung constituency that includes urban
Cairns, upscale Port Douglas, isolated sugar and cattle
districts in the interior, and remote Aboriginal and Torres
Strait Islander communities in the far north. During an
October 14-18 visit to the area, the Consul General met with
candidates, political figures, and local media in Cairns and
surrounding areas at the outset of the campaign as part of
Mission Australia's election coverage.


3. (C/NF) Retiring Liberal member Entsch acknowledged to
the Consul General that much of his 10-percent margin in the
2004 election was due to his personal popularity. This has
contributed to the sense that Leichardt is actually a
marginal seat. Entsch's strong endorsement of his protg,
Charlie McKillop gives her a powerful boost. A 33-year old
northern Queenslander, McKillop has served on Attorney
General Philip Ruddock's staff as well as on Entsch's as
media advisor. As a candidate, she presents an energetic,
informed, policy-savvy, and politically astute image. While
noting that the U.S.)Australia Alliance and Australia's
presence in Iraq were not vote winners for her, she commented
that few voters raised industrial relations and climate
change as issues during her door-to-door campaign visits;
their comments focused much more on local issues. In tune
with the Coalition,s national strategy, McKillop is running
as the candidate of prosperity and economic responsibility.


4. (C/NF) Labor candidate Jim Turnour is intense and less of
a people person; he appeared somewhat uncertain about his
policy brief. In addition, with his public remarks
emphasizing what party leader Kevin Rudd will do for the
nation, he was having trouble at the onset of his campaign
establishing a persona as the candidate who will achieve
things for the district at grass roots level. The issues of
concern to Leichardt voters )- which, according to most
local observers, include health, roads, mortgage costs,
climate change, Iraq, industrial relations )- work in his
favor, however. Local observers also believe that the state
Labor government's unpopular plan to amalgamate various local
councils will not work against him as voters view that as a
state (and specifically as a now-former Premier Beattie)
issue rather than as a federal matter (reftel).


5. (C/NF) National Party candidate Ian Crossland trails far
behind in the polls and is not regarded as a serious
candidate. His campaign claim is that he will not be the
puppet of any party, including, it would seem, his own.
Crossland frequently boasts that an ancestor was one of the
first white children born in Cairns, and made national
headlines by remarking that Leichardt was too tough a
constituency for a woman to handle. While the national
leadership of the National Party hastily disassociated itself
from this statement, Entsch and McKillop took full advantage
of the gaffe to trumpet that McKillop had been born on a
prawn trawler and had worked her way through university on
fishing boats. These observations of her hardscrabble
beginnings also de-emphasized her Canberra experience, widely
viewed by observers as a slight handicap. Despite his having
provided this tactical gift to her campaign, McKillop saw
Crossland's unpredictability as a potential liability; if
voters thought the Coalition partner party's candidate did
not support the Liberal candidate, it could affect how they
distributed their preferences, she commented. (Note:
Crossland told the CG he would instruct his voters to
preference McKillop, but voters are not required to stick to
the preference deals that the parties work out in advance.
End note.)


6. (SBU/NF) None of the three candidates expected the
national leadership of their parties to spend much time in
Leichardt. With Entsch solidly behind her, McKillop has the

senior Liberal support she most needs. Turnour anticipated a
single visit at most by Rudd, with several more by shadow
ministers, but if a recent shadow minister's visit is any
guide, Turnour will play an also-seen-on-the-platform role
while the visitor makes the policy announcements. Crossland
did not appear aware of National Party plans to support him.


7. (SBU/NF) Comment. With Queensland shaping up as a major
election battleground, the campaign in Leichardt matters.
Distant from Canberra, voters pay close attention to which
candidate will best represent them at the federal level. The
wide margins enjoyed by the ALP in the polls suggest that
Labor will form the next government in Canberra. The
decision for voters in Leichardt will be between McKillop's
savvy and experience versus the prospect that a Turnour
victory will ensure that Leichardt's member will continue to
be on the majority side of the aisle.

FERGIN