TONGA AND THE FUTURE: RECONCILE; REFORM; AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 SUVA 000066

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2017
TAGS: PREL MARR EAID PHUM ASEC CH TN
SUBJECT: TONGA AND THE FUTURE: RECONCILE; REFORM; AND
REBUILD

REF: SUVA 61

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
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1. (C) Two months after last November's riot, the
Ambassador's Jan. 16-18 visit to Tonga found most everyone
still licking their wounds. But many people realize they
must look forward. A state of emergency may continue for
several more months. The Tonga Defense Service (TDS) hopes
to reduce its visibility soon, seemingly a good idea.
Widespread criticism of the Tonga Police has brought a
request to Australia and New Zealand for aid. Several
leaders see a great need for reconciliation of angry
political factions, though some believe punishment of alleged
riot leaders must come first. The King and PM both say
political reform will continue in 2007, though sticky issues
like the King's role and the pace of electoral change remain.
Tongans seem hungry for true leadership, but some believe PM
Sevele is still in shock from the riot.


2. (C) The need to rapidly rebuild Nuku'alofa's central
business district (CBD) is acknowledged by all. Funding the
$200 million bill is a big problem. Australia and New
Zealand have offered around US$1 million each to soften
commercial lending for reconstruction. Banks say their local
assets are insufficient. PM Sevele is seeking major grants
from China. Given Tonga's recent decision to send a second
deployment to the "Coalition of the Willing" in Iraq, Sevele
is preparing a request to the U.S. military engineers to
undertake a major infrastructure project in the CBD. We
comment that Tonga's saving grace is remittances from abroad.
They provide an essential cushion during the interim before
the economy rebuilds. We will continue advocating the
"democracy" theme in Tonga. Given the long U.S.-Tonga
friendship and the coming redeployment to Iraq, we advocate
exploring if more concrete support for political reform and
for a reconstruction project is possible. End summary.

A rolling state of emergency; TDS at the fore
--------------

3. (C) Reftel described the dynamics of Tonga's devastating
Nov. 16 riot. In the subsequent two months, most attention
in Nuku'alofa has focused on security issues: re-imposing law
and order on the streets; investigating who committed crimes;
and beginning a punishment phase. PM Sevele declared a
formal state of emergency, though not marshal law,
immediately after the riot. Tonga law permits a state of
emergency for only 30 days at a time, with the possibility of
multiple extensions. Sevele told us he expects several more
iterations. He said he continues to receive threats
personally. He noted he now has a protective detail, a
reality he dislikes. Tonga's AG told us she believes the
continuing presence of the TDS on the streets provides a
useful sense of security.


4. (C) TDS Commander Uta'atu said he is gradually reducing
the visible army presence on the streets; but he sees a need
to maintain emergency powers, at least until the cases of the
most prominent pro-democracy leaders are adjudicated. Those
arrests and potential convictions could stress the public
mood yet again. During the state of emergency, the TDS and
police, but particularly Uta'atu, have taken on very broad
authority. The TDS has 92 troops, about a fifth of the
force, on the streets. Troops have established and enforced
new security-related rules, including bar close-down times,
without any consultation with the civilian government.

Anecdotes of abuses; alienation setting in?
--------------

5. (C) While many seem to appreciate the prominent TDS role
since the riot, there have been anecdotes of abuses.
Reportedly a couple of evenings after the riot, a middle-aged
man drove up to a check point not far from the King's villa.
Soldiers took him from his car and beat him until he
mentioned a brother in the Army. The man said he had no role
in the riot or in politics. In another frequently heard
anecdote, TDS troops entered a home, alleging the new
furnishings inside had been looted during the riot. They
moved everything to the lawn, to the shock of the grandmother
at the scene. When the owner came home and showed receipts
for all purchases, the TDS troops acknowledged they had come
to the wrong house. They then departed, leaving everything

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still on the lawn. Several prominent figures in Nuku'alofa,
not pro-democracy activists, said the continued TDS role has
been over-done and is alienating people. They said, in their
view, there is no need for the state of emergency to
continue. Pro-democracy figures presume a reason that the
state of emergency continues is to make it very difficult for
political discussions to take place. Any meeting of more
than three or four people supposedly requires a permit.

Complications from a "no transit" list
--------------

6. (C) A sub-issue regarding security is a list
TDS-intelligence reportedly prepared of several dozen people
who are not permitted through military check points. Because
Nuku'alofa's airport is beyond such a check point, the list
has kept a number of people from traveling overseas. The
preparation of the list was opaque. Three people stopped
from entering the airport to take flights filed an emergency
suit in the Tonga courts just before Christmas. Chief
Justice Ford did not rule on the legality of such a list, but
he did allow all three to travel since the TDS argued in
court that the only concern was possible terrorism at the
airport, not flight from prosecution. Ford was convinced
none of the people were terrorists.

Professionalizing the Police
--------------

7. (C) As reported reftel, the Tonga Police are almost
universally criticized for their failures at the time of the
riot. PM Sevele has lost all faith in them, and the Police
Commander has quietly resigned. Sevele has asked for an
Australian or New Zealander to command the force. Sevele has
also asked the Aussies and Kiwis to design and implement a
broad-scale "police development" program. The two donors are
seriously considering both requests.

Anger and a search for regret
--------------

8. (C) As described reftel, most everyone in Tonga currently
is angry. Minister of Finance 'Utoikamanu noted that many
commoners have been "ill served" by the current political and
social systems and were very upset even before the riot. PM
Sevele remains very angry personally at the trashing of his
store, endangerment of his family, and several public attacks
on his performance. Many people are embarrassed by the riot,
by the lawless image displayed. Many mention their sense
that the perpetrators have not expressed regret. Not
surprisingly, perpetrators, subject to criminal prosecution,
have not stepped forward to confess to planning or
encouraging the riot. Conservative Tongans generally blame
the pro-democracy movement for being the impetus, whether
planned or not. Interestingly, the Friendly Islands Human
Rights and Democracy Movement did issue a press release
immediately after the riot condemning the perpetrators,
whomever they might be, and reaffirming the Movement's belief
in rule of law.

Reconciliation imperative; King's speech
--------------

9. (C) Several contacts pointed out a need for all sides,
angry as they are, to work at reconciliation. All figure
that goal will be difficult or impossible to accomplish until
"justice has been served" via trials of perceived riot
leaders. Still, the King's speech at the closing of
Parliament on Nov. 22 was a start. He expressed deep regret
that the riot had occurred and had so negatively affected so
many, and he stressed that the political reform process must
continue. He urged all sides to work out a compromise reform
plan to present to the next session of Parliament when it
commences in May. Not everyone bought the message. Asked
about the King's speech, People's Rep Clive Edwards
responded: "Nice words but insincere." Still, the point
remains that, as Foreign Secretary Tone repeatedly stressed,
all sides need to engage in "dialogue", even if actual
reconciliation takes some time. The Finance Minister
suggested there is scope for the donor community to
contribute funds and expertise to the reconciliation process.

Reform still in the cards; tough issues remain
-------------- -

10. (C) To actually achieve the King's requested political
compromise in the next few months is problematic. Most all
decision-makers, including the King, the PM, and the AG, seem
now to agree that Tonga must have a fully elected Parliament.

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Sticky details remain, though. Beyond parliamentary
numbers, the pro-democracy movement has long pushed for a
formal diminution of the King's constitutional role. Sevele
says the King has made clear he intends in general to act "on
advice" of the PM on Cabinet appointments and policy issues,
de facto accepting a Japan- or UK-like model. The AG told us
her Ministry expects to prepare constitutional amendments to
formally incorporate such changes. However, the Lord
Chamberlain told us he is certain the King intends only an
informal arrangement. That, of course, would leave open an
opportunity for the present King, or his successor (likely to
be his younger brother, Sevele's predecessor as PM, and a
very conservative force) to say "never mind."

Pace of reform still a volatile consideration
--------------

11. (C) Another issue is "pace." Should all reforms be in
place before Tonga's next election in 2008, or should some or
all be deferred to sometime later? Some argue that the
riot's shock has set back the impetus for immediate change:
"If this is what comes from reform, who wants it?!" Cabinet
Minister Akolo suggested it is obvious that all efforts at
political reform must be put off until "justice is served."
On the other hand, People's Rep. Edwards told us his sense is
that, after the riot, the mood for reform is strengthening
even more. People still feel estranged from a closed,
traditional system, and they are angry at the PM and army for
post-riot actions.

PM sees stumbling block re quick action
--------------

12. (C) PM Sevele assured us that he will continue the move
to political reform; however, he noted a practical stumbling
block. There may be nobody from the People's Representative
side of Parliament who can be included in the tripartite
negotiating committee proposed before the riot to work
through the details of reform. With an expectation that all
seven pro-democracy People's Reps will soon be under
indictment, who is left? (Note: the other two of the nine
People's Reps in Parliament are not democracy advocates and
would not be publicly perceived as representing the
"pro-democracy" faction.)

A need for real leadership
--------------

13. (C) The Lord Chamberlain to the King assured us His
Majesty is fully on board for major political reform and
retains confidence in the PM to obtain that result. The key
really does seem to be the PM. Several savvy observers said
Sevele is still in a state of shock from November. He is not
exerting leadership at a time when leadership is desperately
needed. Nobody else is exuding reform leadership either.

Everybody on board for rebuilding the CBD
--------------

14. (C) The issue that clearly is capturing attention right
now is the need to rebuild Nuku'alofa's CBD. Tonga cannot
rebound unless its economy rebounds. For the economy to
rebound, Nuku'alofa businesses must rebuild and prosper. The
Tonga Government has already commissioned an architectural
sketch for a model city center to replace the ramshackle,
rather shabby business district of old. Unfortunately, from
our perspective, the drawing recalls a California shopping
center more than a charming South Pacific capital.
Undoubtedly, other concepts will be considered, too. The
City of Manukau in New Zealand has offered its town planners
to provide ideas.

But who has $200 million?
--------------

15. (C) A hugely important issue will be cost. The Tonga
Government was already cash strapped before the riot. It
will not be able to finance rebuilding on its own. Most
business losses from the riot were not covered by riot
insurance. The few who had such insurance have had no
success yet in receiving settlements. Tonga is looking to
foreign donors. The World Bank, the Asian Development Bank,
Australia, and New Zealand have all reportedly expressed
sympathy but have not offered up the US$200 million Tonga
says the rebuilding will cost. (Note: we heard that figure
actually came from the King, with an instruction for the
Government to build a case to buttress it.) Australia and
New Zealand have tentatively agreed to each provide about
US$1 million in grants to "soften" commercial-bank interest

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rates to make finance more affordable. However, the
commercial banks report they have nowhere near the assets in
Tonga to finance reconstruction. To bring more cash in, the
banks will insist on someone guaranteeing a "no loss" result
if exchange rates fluctuate.

How about China?
--------------

16. (C) Given the huge need for funds, PM Sevele is looking
to China, which has provided significant aid ever since
establishing diplomatic relations with Tonga in 1998 (in
place of Taiwan). In April 2006, Chinese Premier Wen
announced plans for more than US$300 million in future aid to
the Pacific. Tonga wants to tap that money, which has yet to
be seen on the ground. Reportedly, initial queries about a
large grant received positive murmurs. PM Sevele told us
Foreign Minister Tu'a and Finance Minister 'Utoikamanu would
travel to Beijing this week to discuss how much assistance is
possible. 'Utoikamanu noted that China, as always, wants
Chinese workers to build any Chinese assistance projects; but
the King objects to that, not wanting "shoddy workmanship" in
his rebuilt capital.

Or the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers?
--------------

17. (C) PM Sevele asked how the USG might assist,
particularly given the Tonga Defense Board's approval in
December of a second deployment of TDS soldiers to the
"Coalition of the Willing" in Iraq. We recalled the long
friendship between the U.S. and Tonga, reiterated
Washington's deep appreciation for the Iraq-deployment
decision, and noted the significant military assistance we
are providing to support the deployment. We also noted
USAID's departure from the region in the mid-1990s and the
reality that Tonga does not yet qualify for Millennium
Challenge funds because of its scores on political openness.
Thus, sizable economic-development assistance is difficult
for the U.S. to deliver in the South Pacific. Sevele then
asked, given the upcoming TDS deployment, if U.S. military
engineers might undertake a major infrastructure project,
perhaps the water and sewer systems for the new CBD. We
noted that U.S. military engineers are heavily engaged
elsewhere, but Embassy Suva would be happy to forward any
Government of Tonga request for USG consideration, with no
guarantees. Sevele said he would write a formal letter,
which has yet to arrive.

Comment
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18. (C) Tonga faces huge challenges at a time when most
everyone in Nuku'alofa is still stressed out from the riot,
when political rivals remain incensed at opponents, when the
economy is a basket case, and when the Government's fiscal
coffers are bare. A saving grace is remittances. At least
as many Tongans live abroad (New Zealand, the U.S., and
Australia) as in Tonga, and they are remarkably generous to
their relatives back home. Even before the riot, remittances
reportedly totaled more than the rest of the Tonga GDP
combined; and thankfully the poorest families have tended to
receive the most remittances, an extremely handy safety net.
A banker reports post-riot remittances have spiked. That
comforting reality would seem to provide the Government and
people of Tonga some cushion for working through their
multitude of issues in hopes of emerging as a reconciled,
more-democratic, and rebuilt nation.


19. (C) We expect Tonga's pro-democracy forces have suffered
a setback from being associated, rightly or wrongly, with
instigating the riot. Still, it appears that at least on
Tonga'tapu the grassroots sentiment for a democratic system
remains strong. That seems much less true on the outer
island groups, but Tonga'tapu has some 70-80% of the total
population. The King struck the right note at his
end-of-Parliament speech by stressing the inevitability of a
more democratic system and the need for Tongans to focus
ahead to a new day. Embassy Suva will continue encouraging
the reform process. Ideally the USG could add programmatic
support to our rhetoric. Given the long U.S.-Tonga
friendship and the welcome reality of the intended TDS
re-deployment to Iraq, we urge Washington to consider if the
USG can in some useful way help meet Tonga's reconstruction
needs.
DINGER