Tonga Update: elections in 2008; reforms postponed to 2010;

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000554

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TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM EAID TN CH
SUBJECT: Tonga Update: elections in 2008; reforms postponed to 2010;
state of emergency; media constraints; China loan

REF: A) SUVA 466 B) SUVA 442 C) SUVA 405

The message is sensitive but unclassified. Handle accordingly.

Summary
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1. (SBU) The final session of Tonga's three-year Legislative
Assembly concluded November 1, with elections now slated for April

2008. PM Sevele, as a royal appointee, will not have to face
election. Pro-democracy People's Representatives, who had doggedly
argued for the 2008 election to take place under reforms that would
give them a majority in the assembly, denounced an Assembly decision
to postpone the first post-reform election until 2010. A binding
commitment to the reforms has not yet been made. The trial of five
People's Representatives, charged with sedition over the November
2006 riot, has been put off until August 2008. Emergency
regulations put in place after the riot have been extended for a
13th time. The Tonga Broadcasting Commission is refusing to allow
programs from a prominent pro-democracy group, and government has
said it will issue guidelines to government-owned media on political
reporting. Tonga and China signed a USD 60 million loan agreement
to fund reconstruction of the capital city's riot-damaged business
district, amid worries about fiscal consequences and the possibility
of increased illegal Chinese immigration. End Summary.

Parliament: Final Words on Election Dates and Reforms
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2. (U) The final session of Tonga's three-year Legislative Assembly
resumed, and effectively closed, on October 29. Given the many
weighty issues to be considered, there was considerable public and
media criticism when the Assembly's opening was delayed by several
days so members could attend a school anniversary celebration and
then was closed by the king the day it finally re-convened. October
29 was the only day for substantive debate. The formal closing
ceremony on November 1 was boycotted by five of the Assembly's seven
People's Representatives as an expression of their disappointment
with the king's abrupt closing of the Assembly. Public attendance
at the closing, which is encouraged and facilitated by government,
was markedly sparse.


3. (U) The Assembly on its final day returned to the issue of
constitutionally mandated 2008 general elections. In the Assembly's
September sitting, the People's Representatives failed by a vote of
7-15 to pass a proposal to have the 2008 poll conducted under
democratic reforms proposed by a tripartite committee (reftels) or,
alternatively, to have the first election under the reforms in 2009.
Voting for Nobles' and People's Representatives is now scheduled
for April 23 and 24, 2008, respectively, based on Tonga's existing
electoral arrangements. The reform proposals, which would guarantee
a People's Representative majority in the Assembly and other
democratic changes, must now be finalized by the new Assembly,
presumably for implementation in elections in 2010.


4. (U) The October 29 Assembly session also discussed the PM's
contention that he and Tourism Minister Fineasi Funaki (another
former People's Representative) do not need to run for re-election
in 2008 because they were appointed ministers by, and serve at the
pleasure of, the king. The attorney general confirmed this, much to
the consternation of the sitting People's Representatives, some of
whom had predicted the PM's impending defeat at the polls.

Electoral Reforms: Details Still to Come
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5. (SBU) Despite the Assembly's September endorsement of electoral
reforms put forward in July by the tripartite parliamentary
committee, members have still not formally voted to commit Tonga to
the new system. People's Representative Clive Edwards says the lack
of a formal commitment worries him, since the new government could
go back on its support for the changes. Still, a spokesman from the
PM's office assured us that the PM and Cabinet fully support the new
division of seats between nobles' and people's representatives, a
proposal for parliament to name the prime minister and most of the
cabinet from its own ranks (with the king permitted to select four
cabinet members),and the invocation of those reforms in 2010.


6. (SBU) Agreement still has to be reached on at least two other key
issues: reforms to electoral constituencies and the voting system
(one person, one vote; or single transferable; or preferential,
etc.) The tripartite committee could not reach consensus on those
matters. One knowledgeable contact noted that if the new Assembly
after 2008 elections were to attempt to reverse the already agreed
reforms, there would be an "enormous risk" of a popular backlash.

Looking Ahead to the Elections

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7. (SBU) People's Representative Akilisi Pohiva has told us he was
frustrated by what he perceived as government backtracking in the
Assembly when its representatives voted to postpone electoral
reforms to the 2010 election. He claimed that government had
already made up its mind last March, before the tripartite
committee's discussions. Pohiva told us this week that since the
closure of the Assembly, the pro-democracy camp has been holding
village-level seminars on non-violent political activism, using the
opportunity to discuss the reforms and to prepare the faithful for
the upcoming elections. Pohiva recently told a Radio Australia
reporter that the development of formal political parties like those
found in other countries is now inevitable in Tonga. The Friendly
Island Human Rights and Democracy Movement he heads is a registered
"incorporated society" and is a political party in everything but
name.

Court Cases: No End in Sight
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8. (U) The trial of five People's Representatives - including Pohiva
and Edwards -- charged with sedition for their alleged role in
instigating the November 2006 riot has been postponed until August

2008. After the court tossed out most of the original charges in
September, the Crown controversially added two additional charges of
abetment to a riotous assembly and abetment to the damage of
buildings. The five accused have appealed that move, but the
appeals court will not sit again until July.


9. (U) Police contacts tell us Tonga's courts have processed about
half of the more than 500 persons charged with offences related to
the November 2006 riot. Of about 90 people who have gone before the
courts, most have been tried at the Supreme Court, resulting in
fines, or verdicts of acquittal, or suspended sentences. A few
prison sentences, generally in the range of three to seven years,
have been handed down to those convicted of breaking into buildings
or taking leading roles in the looting. The first group trial of
seven persons charged with serious offenses relating to the riots
ended October 30 with the acquittal of six. The seventh was
convicted of "housebreaking" and has yet to be sentenced. A second
group trial of seven defendants is now under way.

Emergency Regulations: One Year and Counting
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10. (U) On November 12, the government extended emergency
regulations for a thirteenth month. Minister for Information
Afu'alo Matoto told the media that the Police and Defense Services
remain concerned about the potential for a repeat of last year's
violence, though he observed that he himself doesn't think that
likely. Police Minister Siaosi' Aho, meanwhile, said the shooting
of a Chinese shopkeeper during a recent attempted robbery was one
factor in his recommendation that the government maintain the
emergency regulations. Gun crimes are rare in Tonga, and while the
attack is apparently unrelated to political "unrest," the looting
and violence during the riot, including against Chinese shops,
remains vivid in everyone's minds.

Press Freedom: Government to Issue Guidelines
--------------

11. (SBU) The Friendly Islands Human Rights and Democracy Movement
has complained that the media regulator, the Tonga Broadcasting
Commission (TBC),is barring pro-democracy programs from
government-owned Television Tonga and Radio Tonga (Tonga's most
widely heard broadcaster). Pohiva has complained to us bitterly
about the restrictions on political speech that, he said, make
reaching the voting public difficult. Pro-government programs such
as those hosted by the prime minister's Reconciliation Advisor,
Viliame Afeaki, and government media consultant Kalafi Moala
continue to be broadcast. New Information Minister Matoto told
members of the Tonga Media Council November 16 that government's
on-going ban on political programs and parliamentary reports,
started in June was, in fact, not a consequence of the state of
emergency but because of "government's perception that reports made
by Radio Tonga and Television Tonga are unbalanced." In a worrisome
development, Matoto said government plans to draw up guidelines for
the journalists of Radio Tonga and Television Tonga so the media can
"work within the policy and set regulations in broadcasting and
printing." Independent media have expressed their unease.

China Loan and China Labor
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12. (SBU) On October 19, Tonga and the PRC signed a RMB 440 million
(USD $60 million) concessional loan agreement for the redevelopment
of post-riot Nuku`alofa. Reportedly, the IMF has expressed concern
that the size of loan and future exchange-rate changes could stress

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Tonga's fiscal position. The Tonga government is now discussing
implementation with the lead contractor, China Civil Engineering
Construction Corporation (CCECC). CCECC has been active in Tonga
for several years, with a number of large projects already
completed, including a national convention center that hosted the
October Pacific Island Forum meetings. The work has resulted in an
influx of Chinese construction workers, which People's
Representative Pohiva says has fueled illegal immigration and
resentment by the Tonga community. Following the loan signing, PM
Sevele noted, "There will be some people from China, but we hope
there will be a sharing of jobs available from the reconstruction
between China and Tonga, and that is being negotiated at the
moment."


13. (U) The Legislative Assembly sent a delegation to visit the PRC
November 17-25, headed by Finance Minister Siosiua Utoikamanu. The
invitation, from the PRC National People's Congress (NPC),
reciprocated a visit to Nuku`alofa in early September in which the
NPC delegation came bearing gifts of laptop computers and furniture
for Tonga's Legislative Assembly. China also donated a fleet of
police motorcycles and luxury sedans for the Forum summit, which are
now being used by various ministries.

Comment
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14. (SBU) Until King, Cabinet, and Nobles join People's Reps to
commit Tonga formally to reforms nothing is certain. Per previous
reporting, the King seems anxious to proceed, acknowledging the
potential volatility of the public mood. The 2008 election may not
directly test the popularity of PM Sevele; but how People's Rep
activists like Pohiva and Edwards fare will be an indicator of the
public mood, post-riot. If Pohiva continues to be the leading
vote-getter, the push to cement reforms in place ASAP will receive a
big boost.

DINGER