FIJI UPDATE: 10/24/07

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000501

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR PHUM FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE: 10/24/07

REF: SUVA 498

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
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1. (C) Fiji interim Prime Minister Bainimarama's seemingly
firm commitment in Tonga last week to hold free elections in
March 2009 has brought gasps from his friends in the Fiji
Labor Party. FLP leader Chaudhry is considering his options.
Bainimarama and deposed PM Qarase are beginning to discuss
dialogue, though complications are already arising. Fiji's
Roman Catholics are split over Archbishop Mataca's agreeing
to co-chair Bainimarama's People's Charter effort.
Discussion of President Iloilo's mental fitness has gone
public. Appointments to the Electoral Boundaries Commission
have made interim Attorney General Sayed Khaiyum appear
inept. They also indicate the IG intends to control the
boundary-making process. End summary.

Bainimarama election commitment draws FLP flack
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2. (C) As described reftel, Fiji interim Prime Minister
Bainimarama, during Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) meetings in
Tonga last week, committed to hold constitutionally
acceptable general elections in March 2009. He also promised
PIF leaders that deposed PM Qarase and his SDL party could
compete in those elections. Several sources have said that a
number of members of the interim cabinet, most prominently
interim Finance Minister Chaudhry, had received assurance
from Bainimarama before taking cabinet portfolios that the
interim government (IG) would stay in place for at least five
years. With that they accepted Bainimarama's publicly
announced pledge that nobody in the interim cabinet would run
in the next general election. Bainimarama's commitment in
Tonga to elections in the nearer term brought a negative
reaction from Chaudhry's Fiji Labor Party, with FLP President
Koroi complaining publicly that the clean-up of Fiji to
ensure truly unbiased elections would not be completed by
March 2009.


3. (C) Note: we understand that in a meeting with EAP PDAS
Davies on Oct. 22 Chaudhry reported Bainimarama has revised
his prohibition on interim cabinet ministers running in the
next election. Chaudhry said the rule now is that a minister
must resign at least six months before the election. In the
meeting, Chaudhry reportedly said he is still mulling his
election options. End note.

Bainimarama-Qarase dialogue in the works?
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4. (U) On Bainimarama's return from Tonga, the PM's office
wrote to Qarase proposing the commencement of a political
dialogue. In September, when Qarase returned from exile on
his home island, he had proposed a dialogue, but Bainimarama
curtly rejected that course at the time. Qarase's positive
response to the letter from the PM's office has brought a
cautious reaction from Bainimarama, who informed the media
any dialogue would need to have appropriate ground rules in
place, including agreement that discussions would be within
the context of the "People's Charter" process.

Roman Catholics in turmoil
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5. (C) The IG's selection of Catholic Archbishop Mataca to be
Bainimarama's co-chair of the People's Charter process
brought anguish to those Catholic parishioners who oppose the
coup and its aftermath. A number of prominent Catholics --
including Chief Justice Fatiaki's wife, lawyer Graham Leung,
High Chief and former Minister Ro Tememu Kepa, and former
Minister Kenneth Zinck -- met with Mataca a few days ago to
plead for him to remove himself from politics. In the words
of Mrs. Fatiaki, as the constructive discussion was wrapping
up "the devil entered the room" in the presence of Ben
Vunibobo, a Minister in the Rabuka governments of the 1990s
and reputedly a behind-the-scenes backer of the 2000 coups.
Vunibobo has been silent publicly about the 2006 coup, but
reportedly he used scathing language in the meeting to leave
no doubt that he supports the IG and the Archbishop's new
role. After the meeting, the Archbishop wrote a letter to
the media offering an apology to any Catholics he has
offended but confirming that he sees it as his Christian duty
to help move Fiji forward via the People's Charter process.

Public discussion of President Iloilo's capacity
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6. (C) Human-rights activist Shamima Ali said publicly this
week what many others who oppose the IG have been thinking:
that 86-year-old President Iloilo is no longer capable of
taking the decisions the IG has ascribed to him ever since
the coup. Ms. Ali didn't discuss mental capacity but simply
suggested Iloilo is "tired." Bainimarama and others in the
IG immediately leapt to Iloilo's defense. Bainimarama said
the President still thinks clearly, can talk at length about
events of 60 years ago, and still makes decisions based on
his Christian principles. The IG put out a media release
chastizing any who would criticize the President. Note: As
previously reported, Iloilo's personal physician has told us
quite definitively that the President has been suffering from
"dementia" for several years.

IG confusion re Boundaries Commission
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7. (C) The IG named a three-member Electoral Boundaries
Commission two weeks ago, with a Suva lawyer Ulamila Fa
Tui-Tuku as Chairman. We had heard that Ms. Fa learned of
her selection from the media release and was quite surprised.
This week, Ms. Fa officially resigned from the role.
Interim Attorney General Sayed-Khaiyum then announced on Oct.
24 that President Iloilo has appointed Adi Koila Nailatikau
-- law partner of Ms. Fa, daughter of founding father Ratu
Mara, wife of interim FM Nailatikau, and sister to coup
participant LtCol. Tevita Mara -- to chair the Commission.
Within hours, the Fiji Times pointed out that Adi Koila is
constitutionally ineligible for the job because she served in
Fiji's Senate within the past four years. Qarase's SDL Party
has called for Sayed-Khaiyum to resign as AG for the
embarrassment he has caused the President. Sayed-Khaiyum
then issued an apology. Aside from the constitutional
aspect, the Adi Koila appointment brought clarity to the IG's
intention to ensure boundaries are drawn to IG specifications.

Comment
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8. (C) For the moment at least, it appears Bainimarama
intends to move the IG toward elections in March 2009.
However, his every instinct will be to find ways to stretch
the timing out to allow more "clean up" and more re-education
of the populace before risking a free and fair vote.
Chaudhry and others benefiting from IG positions will
encourage such delay. If the election were held today, it is
very likely the IG's supporters would lose and lose badly.
The Bainimarama-Qarase dialogue theoretically could be very
useful for Fiji. However, both men are very stubborn and
very committed to their own views for the future. Qarase's
SDL Party has rejected the People's Charter concept, yet
Bainimarama seems to be insisting that concept be the context
for any dialogue. Even the preliminary sparring could be
interesting.
MANN