BAINIMARAMA COMMITS TO ELECTIONS IN 2009; SAYS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000498

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR FJ
SUBJECT: BAINIMARAMA COMMITS TO ELECTIONS IN 2009; SAYS
MILITARY WILL ACCEPT RESULTS


1. (SBU) Summary. Fiji's Interim Prime Minister, Commodore
Frank Bainimarama, told Pacific Leaders 10/17 that his
interim government (IG) was committed to elections by the
first quarter of 2009, and that the military would accept the
results. The Forum Leaders welcomed Bainimarama's commitment
and urged the IG to work with the Forum to produce a credible
roadmap to those elections according to the law and
Constitution of Fiji. The Leaders called for a meeting of the
Forum Foreign Ministers in January, 2008 to review progress
toward holding elections. Deposed PM Qarase called
Bainimarama's commitment a positive development, as did the
governments of the United States, Australia and New Zealand.
Each of these countries stressed the need for the IG to work
closely with the Forum and to demonstrate more concrete
progress toward a quick return to democracy. End summary.

Bainimarama Commits to Elections in March 2009
-------------- -

2. (SBU) In his speech to Pacific leaders at the Pacific
Island Forum Leaders' Meeting in Tonga October 17, Fiji
Interim PM Bainimarama said "my government is committed to
preparing for parliamentary elections to be held in the first
quarter of 2009, as recommended by the Forum-sponsored
assessment team." The speech as it appears on the Fiji
Government website does not specifically state that
Bainimarama also committed to accepting the results of the
election. Leaders, however, clearly understood him to have
made that commitment. The Leaders outcome document states,
"(the leaders) welcome the undertaking of the Fiji Interim
Government to the Forum Leaders today that a parliamentary
election will be held in the first quarter of 2009, and note
that he and the Republic of Fiji Military Forces will accept
the outcome of the elections in the first quarter of 2009."
In statements to the press after the Leaders' Meeting,
Bainimarama reiterated his pledge to hold elections in early

2009. "I have given an undertaking," he told the press, "and
we will go to the polls in 2009. There is enough time, I
believe, to get us there."

Leaders Outcome Document
--------------

3. (SBU) After their discussion of the situation in Fiji,
the Leaders agreed on the following set of outcomes:

--Endorsed the findings of the Forum-sponsored Eminent
Persons Group Report and the Forum Foreign Ministers' Meeting
in March 2007 as an appropriate way forward to the
restoration of constitutional and democratic government in
Fiji;

--Welcomed Bainimarama's pledge to hold elections by early
2009 and to honor the results of that election (as noted para
2 above);

--Called on the IG to work with the Fiji-Forum Joint Working
Group to produce a credible roapmap to those elections
according to the Constitution and law of Fiji, and urged the
IG to accord the highest priority to that task;

--Noted that the IG is pursuing an initiative to produce a
People's Charter;

--Expressed appreciation for the support which members of the
international community have accorded to the Forum's actions
in addressing the pathway to elections by the first quarter
of 2009;

--Commended the work carried out by the Fiji-Forum Joint
Working Group in seeking to advance the pathway to those
elections; and

--Called for a meeting of the Forum Foreign Ministers in
January, 2008 to review progress towards elections.

Bainimarama Says "We Came Away As Winners"
--------------

5. (SBU) Bainimarama told reporters he was happy with the
Leaders' Outcome statement. He specifically applauded the
fact that the Leaders had "noted" his People's Charter
initiative. Interim Attorney General Sayed-Khaiyum also said
the "note" of the People's Charter was very significant,
saying it showed that Leaders understand why the IG is
pursuing that initiative. Bainimarama said the Forum
meetings had been very positive. "As they say in rugby, we

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came as underdogs and went away as winners."

United States, Australia and New Zealand
Call the Pledge a Positive Step
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6. (SBU) New Zealand Prime Minister Clark and Australia
Foreign Minister Downer called Bainimarama's pledge
"heartening." Both stressed the need for Bainimarama and the
IG to follow through, and to demonstrate a genuine commitment
to an election roadmap developed in conjunction with the
Forum. A State Department press statement said that the
United States views the pledge as a step in the right
direction, and calls on the IG to work with the Forum to
produce a credible roadmap to elections. The statement was
widely reported in all Fiji media.


7. (SBU) In his meetings with reporters, Bainimarama took a
slap at Australia and New Zealand, particularly, for not
immediately endorsing all aspects of his election pledge. In
an interview published on the Fiji government website,
Bainimarama said "I am very disappointed when people said
(sic) you need to show concrete evidence for the polls. What
other concrete evidence do they need? We have had the
census, the boundaries commission has been nominated,
electoral commission has been nominated. I don't know what
else they need. Do they want us to have elections tomorrow?
What else to they want us to do to show them concrete
evidence? We are going to have the polls in 2009, full
stop." Again referring to Australia and New Zealand, he
said, "We have given them all the signs that we want to head
towards a 2009 election, but I get the impression that they
think I have evil intentions in that I want to stay around
for another 10 years."

The Qarase Factor
--------------

8. (SBU) Deposed PM Qarase welcomed the Commodore's pledge,
although he believes elections could be held much sooner than
March 2009. Qarase said his SDL party would contest the
election, and insisted that SDL has greater support now than
it did before the coup. In comments to the press,
Bainimarama did not directly address Qarase's possible
candidacy, but said Qarase would not be a problem come
election time. "If anybody with Qarase-like policies comes
in," he said, "the (People's) Charter will automatically
remove them." (Comment: As this ambiguous statement
indicates, Bainimarama appears unwilling to state clearly
that Qarase and the SDL will be allowed to fully participate
in the proposed 2009 elections. End comment.)

Comment
--------------

9. (SBU) Bainimarama's pledge is a positive development.
We have plenty to reasons to remain skeptical, however, given
previous statements that Fiji will not be rushed into
elections by the international community and that the SDL
will not be allowed to return to power. As the Outcome
Document indicates, the Forum remains a very powerful and
effective vehicle in pressuring the IG into having early
elections. The January Forum Foreign Ministers meeting will
be another strong opportunity to keep that pressure on.




















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