Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07SUVA488
2007-10-08 18:59:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Suva
Cable title:
PACIFIC ISLAND FORUM SCENESETTER - FOCUS ON FIJI
how-toVZCZCXRO3909 PP RUEHNZ RUEHPB DE RUEHSV #0488/01 2811859 ZNR UUUUU ZZH P 081859Z OCT 07 FM AMEMBASSY SUVA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0113 INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1830 RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1398 RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 1598 RUEHNZ/AMCONSUL AUCKLAND 0543 RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY 0951 RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI RHMFIUU/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000488
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON FJ
SUBJECT: PACIFIC ISLAND FORUM SCENESETTER - FOCUS ON FIJI
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000488
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON FJ
SUBJECT: PACIFIC ISLAND FORUM SCENESETTER - FOCUS ON FIJI
1. (SBU) The situation in Fiji will be one of the main
topics of discussion during the upcoming Pacific Island Forum
meetings. Fiji interim PM Bainimarama's planned attendance
at the Forum Leaders' meeting has already created
considerable controversy in the region and is likely to
dominate media coverage of the event. The Forum countries
have played a very positive role in the past year in urging
the quick restoration of democracy to Fiji. The Forum will
be another opportunity for Forum members and Post Forum
Dialogue Partners to press Fiji's interim government to
follow through on its "in principle" commitment to hold
elections in March 2009, if not sooner.
Fiji's Coup and the Interim Government
--------------
2. (SBU) The December 2006 coup led by RFMF Commander
Bainimarama was followed by the installation of an interim
government (IG) with Bainimarama as interim PM. A military
council reportedly makes policy behind the scene. Key
players in the IG include ex-military leaders such as interim
Foreign Minister Nailatikau and interim Fijian Affairs
Minister Ganilau, and several former Labor Party ministers,
led by former PM Chaudhry, who is interim Finance Minister.
Bainimarama has installed military officials as the heads of
Fiji's police and prison services, and has placed a
sprinkling of military officers in other senior civil service
positions. The IG has also taken steps to remake the
judiciary to its liking, engineering the suspension of Chief
Justice Fatiaki and installing several judicial officials
allegedly with affiliations to coup perpetrators. Several
long-serving High Court and Appeals Court justices have left
the bench, or soon will do so, vowing not to seek
reappointment by a regime they consider illegitimate.
Bainimarama and the military control all branches of
government, at least for the moment.
Human Rights in Fiji/Fears of Unrest
--------------
3. (SBU) While the coup itself was bloodless, the military
used intimidation tactics, and sometimes violence, to silence
opposition and solidify its hold on power. In the months
immediately following the coup, individuals who dared to
speak out were routinely taken to the military camp and
subjected to threats and often physical abuse. Two young men
- both interrogated by the military for alleged criminal, not
political, behavior - died in military custody early this
year. The interim regime has endlessly delayed bringing the
murderers to justice.
4. (SBU) Largely because of pressure from the international
community, the military appears to have curtailed serious
human rights abuses characteristic of the regime's early
days. A few activists continue to speak out against the IG.
The press, while self-censoring, has at times been quite
critical of the regime. Partly due to concerns about the
potential loss of EU sugar assistance funding, the IG in May
removed Public Emergency Regulations (PER) which limited free
speech and other rights. The regime reimposed the PER in
September after deposed PM Qarase returned to Suva from
internal exile and made comments the military deemed
"inciteful." The IG removed the PER again on October 5. It
remains to be seen if Qarase and other political figures will
be able to speak freely. Clearly the IG is very sensitive to
domestic criticism and fears challenges to its hold on power.
Significant discontent exists beneath the surface in Fiji,
especially in the ethnic-Fijian community, but to date it has
not burst forth in the streets.
The Economy in Trouble
--------------
5. (SBU) Fiji's economy has suffered tremendously since the
coup. The Reserve Bank of Fiji predicts that the economy
will contract by 3% in 2007. That may be an under-estimate.
Foreign and domestic investments have dropped precipitously;
retail sales are down substantially; and both imports and
exports have fallen. Tourism, the one sector with the
potential to help Fiji rebound, has yet to recover, partly
due to the regime's failure to recognize that actions it
takes, such as reimposition of the Public Emergency
Regulations, can have a direct, negative impact on tourist
arrivals.
Elections in 2009?
--------------
6. (SBU) In February, the Forum Foreign Ministers called
SUVA 00000488 002 OF 002
for elections no later than March 2009, or by November 2008
if appropriate foreign aid is offered. The IG agreed "in
principle" to elections in March 2009. Unfortunately, the IG
has sent very mixed messages since. It did undertake a
census in September, but it has not yet named an Electoral
Boundaries Commission or a Supervisor of Elections. The
military has repeatedly stated that it will not allow Qarase
and his SDL party to return to power, raising serious
concerns about "free and fair" elections. Bainimarama has
frequently said elections will not take place until the
military and IG are sure the goals of the coup have been met,
with the main goal being to change voter mindsets so that
race issues no longer dominate Fiji politics. The IG has
proposed a "People's Charter" process to lead Fiji's
transformation and ready the population for truly fair
elections, a process that could take a very long time. Race
has always been a major factor in Fiji politics. The racial
gulf appeared to be mending a bit after the May 2006
elections when PM Qarase named a truly multi-ethnic cabinet,
but it has deepened since the coup. Many in the ethnic
Fijian community perceive the coup as pro-Indian, pointing to
the prominent role played by Chaudhry and others.
The Role of the Forum
--------------
7. (SBU) The Pacific Island Forum has played a very
constructive role in post-coup Fiji, urging an end to human
rights abuses and helping coordinate efforts toward new
elections in the relatively near term. Earlier this year,
the Forum Foreign Ministers, drawing from the Forum-sponsored
"Eminent Person Group" (EPG) report, showed a willingness to
stand up to the Fiji interim regime and press hard for a
return to democracy. In Tonga, Forum leaders will consider
next steps. Having pressed the IG to commit to elections no
later than March 2009, the Forum and its partners now have a
far more daunting task - to convince the IG to follow through
on that "in principle" promise.
.
.
DINGER
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON FJ
SUBJECT: PACIFIC ISLAND FORUM SCENESETTER - FOCUS ON FIJI
1. (SBU) The situation in Fiji will be one of the main
topics of discussion during the upcoming Pacific Island Forum
meetings. Fiji interim PM Bainimarama's planned attendance
at the Forum Leaders' meeting has already created
considerable controversy in the region and is likely to
dominate media coverage of the event. The Forum countries
have played a very positive role in the past year in urging
the quick restoration of democracy to Fiji. The Forum will
be another opportunity for Forum members and Post Forum
Dialogue Partners to press Fiji's interim government to
follow through on its "in principle" commitment to hold
elections in March 2009, if not sooner.
Fiji's Coup and the Interim Government
--------------
2. (SBU) The December 2006 coup led by RFMF Commander
Bainimarama was followed by the installation of an interim
government (IG) with Bainimarama as interim PM. A military
council reportedly makes policy behind the scene. Key
players in the IG include ex-military leaders such as interim
Foreign Minister Nailatikau and interim Fijian Affairs
Minister Ganilau, and several former Labor Party ministers,
led by former PM Chaudhry, who is interim Finance Minister.
Bainimarama has installed military officials as the heads of
Fiji's police and prison services, and has placed a
sprinkling of military officers in other senior civil service
positions. The IG has also taken steps to remake the
judiciary to its liking, engineering the suspension of Chief
Justice Fatiaki and installing several judicial officials
allegedly with affiliations to coup perpetrators. Several
long-serving High Court and Appeals Court justices have left
the bench, or soon will do so, vowing not to seek
reappointment by a regime they consider illegitimate.
Bainimarama and the military control all branches of
government, at least for the moment.
Human Rights in Fiji/Fears of Unrest
--------------
3. (SBU) While the coup itself was bloodless, the military
used intimidation tactics, and sometimes violence, to silence
opposition and solidify its hold on power. In the months
immediately following the coup, individuals who dared to
speak out were routinely taken to the military camp and
subjected to threats and often physical abuse. Two young men
- both interrogated by the military for alleged criminal, not
political, behavior - died in military custody early this
year. The interim regime has endlessly delayed bringing the
murderers to justice.
4. (SBU) Largely because of pressure from the international
community, the military appears to have curtailed serious
human rights abuses characteristic of the regime's early
days. A few activists continue to speak out against the IG.
The press, while self-censoring, has at times been quite
critical of the regime. Partly due to concerns about the
potential loss of EU sugar assistance funding, the IG in May
removed Public Emergency Regulations (PER) which limited free
speech and other rights. The regime reimposed the PER in
September after deposed PM Qarase returned to Suva from
internal exile and made comments the military deemed
"inciteful." The IG removed the PER again on October 5. It
remains to be seen if Qarase and other political figures will
be able to speak freely. Clearly the IG is very sensitive to
domestic criticism and fears challenges to its hold on power.
Significant discontent exists beneath the surface in Fiji,
especially in the ethnic-Fijian community, but to date it has
not burst forth in the streets.
The Economy in Trouble
--------------
5. (SBU) Fiji's economy has suffered tremendously since the
coup. The Reserve Bank of Fiji predicts that the economy
will contract by 3% in 2007. That may be an under-estimate.
Foreign and domestic investments have dropped precipitously;
retail sales are down substantially; and both imports and
exports have fallen. Tourism, the one sector with the
potential to help Fiji rebound, has yet to recover, partly
due to the regime's failure to recognize that actions it
takes, such as reimposition of the Public Emergency
Regulations, can have a direct, negative impact on tourist
arrivals.
Elections in 2009?
--------------
6. (SBU) In February, the Forum Foreign Ministers called
SUVA 00000488 002 OF 002
for elections no later than March 2009, or by November 2008
if appropriate foreign aid is offered. The IG agreed "in
principle" to elections in March 2009. Unfortunately, the IG
has sent very mixed messages since. It did undertake a
census in September, but it has not yet named an Electoral
Boundaries Commission or a Supervisor of Elections. The
military has repeatedly stated that it will not allow Qarase
and his SDL party to return to power, raising serious
concerns about "free and fair" elections. Bainimarama has
frequently said elections will not take place until the
military and IG are sure the goals of the coup have been met,
with the main goal being to change voter mindsets so that
race issues no longer dominate Fiji politics. The IG has
proposed a "People's Charter" process to lead Fiji's
transformation and ready the population for truly fair
elections, a process that could take a very long time. Race
has always been a major factor in Fiji politics. The racial
gulf appeared to be mending a bit after the May 2006
elections when PM Qarase named a truly multi-ethnic cabinet,
but it has deepened since the coup. Many in the ethnic
Fijian community perceive the coup as pro-Indian, pointing to
the prominent role played by Chaudhry and others.
The Role of the Forum
--------------
7. (SBU) The Pacific Island Forum has played a very
constructive role in post-coup Fiji, urging an end to human
rights abuses and helping coordinate efforts toward new
elections in the relatively near term. Earlier this year,
the Forum Foreign Ministers, drawing from the Forum-sponsored
"Eminent Person Group" (EPG) report, showed a willingness to
stand up to the Fiji interim regime and press hard for a
return to democracy. In Tonga, Forum leaders will consider
next steps. Having pressed the IG to commit to elections no
later than March 2009, the Forum and its partners now have a
far more daunting task - to convince the IG to follow through
on that "in principle" promise.
.
.
DINGER