FIJI: REPORTED PLAN TO REMOVE BAINIMARAMA; CHANCES UNCERTAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SUVA 000480

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ASEC CASC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI: REPORTED PLAN TO REMOVE BAINIMARAMA; CHANCES
UNCERTAIN

REF: SUVA 473

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Another counter-coup rumor, with a degree of detail
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1. (C) On Oct. 2, Ballu Khan, a controversial Indo-Fijian
businessman, met with the Australian High Commissioner to
Fiji. Khan owns IT businesses and has close ties to the
Qaranivalu, the high chief of Naitasiri Province who was
convicted of fomenting a mutiny against Commodore Bainimarama
in November 2000 and who was released from prison pending a
new trial a few months ago. Khan also has as personal
bodyguards several former members of the
Counter-Revolutionary Warfare (CRW) group, elements of which
took part in the 2000 mutiny. The Fiji military harassed
Khan after the 2006 coup. In the meeting yesterday, Khan
reported that former-military elements are collaborating with
current-military elements, including an Army Major, for a
surgical removal of Bainimarama and his group in the near
term, perhaps during Fiji Day celebrations this weekend,
certainly before Oct. 31. The Constitution would be
abrogated, presumably to facilitate also removing President
Iloilo. Acting Chief Justice Gates would depart as well.
Khan said the intention after the counter-coup is to set up a
civilian-led interim government (IG) pending fresh elections.
Very possibly former Vice President Madraiwiwi would be
asked to serve as interim President. Another source reports
a rumor that Madraiwiwi has asked former Speaker of
Parliament Pita Nacuva to serve as interim VP. Khan reported
that deposed PM Qarase is not expected to have a role in the
post-counter-coup administration, as the Qaranivalu has not
been pleased by Qarase's passiveness in recent months.


2. (C) Khan also said that senior Fiji military officer
LtCol. Tevita Mara asked to visit the Qaranivalu recently.
The Qaranivalu decided to preempt that by going to the the
military camp. At the meeting, Mara reportedly warned that
the Qaranivalu and Khan would both end up as "collateral
damage" if there is any counter-coup attempt.

Comment
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3. (C) As noted reftel, rumors are circulating in Suva of a
move to oust Bainimarama. That is not surprising, given the
economic decline since December and the continuing
unhappiness in the ethnic-Fijian community about the interim
government. The recent IG efforts to "reform" the Great
Council of Chiefs and the mention in Bainimarama's speech at
the UNGA of an intent to eliminate communal voting would seem
to signal to the traditional Fijian elite that it must act to
protect traditional Fijian interests, including over land
rights. Bainimarama's indications that he will not permit an
election until he has completed his reforms and that Fijian
nationalists, people like Qarase and the Qaranivalu, will not
be allowed to run in any future election would accent to the
traditional Fijian elite that the only option is a
counter-coup. Whether Khan's report reflects a real plan
and, if so, how it would turn out remain unclear, and very
likely would not become clear until tested by implementation.
The percolating unhappiness in the Fijian community explains
the recent re-imposition of public-emergency regulations
(PER). Bainimarama's overseas trip, the reported
Mara-Qaranivalu meeting, and reports from the IG that the PER
will be allowed to lapse again later this week suggest a
sense of confidence within the RFMF leadership that it can
handle any threat.

U.S. interests
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4. (C) The U.S. public announcement for Fiji continues to
caution American citizens about travel here and to warn
Americans already here to stay away from large gatherings or
public disturbances. The Embassy Suva EAC met today,
considered the uncertainties, and judged that, as of now, the
current public announcement remains sufficient. We will stay
alert and keep our contingency plans at the ready, including
by continuing to test emergency procedures. If a
counter-coup does take place, the U.S. interest will remain
to see the rapid return of a freely elected democratic
government.
DINGER