SCENE-SETTER FOR COMMANDER PACOM VISIT TO TONGA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 SUVA 000442

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR PHUM TN
SUBJECT: SCENE-SETTER FOR COMMANDER PACOM VISIT TO TONGA

REF: A. SUVA 435


B. USDAO SUVA 131933Z AUG 07

C. SUVA 405 (AND PREVIOUS)

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
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1. (C) A first visit to the Kingdom of Tonga is always
fascinating, as is a meeting with eccentric King George V.
The U.S. and Tonga have friendly relations, especially
mil/mil, as evidenced by the new Tonga Defense Service (TDS)
deployment to Iraq. Within Tonga, pro-democracy sentiments
have been building for several years. The U.S. encourages a
Tonga-managed transition to a Tongan-style democracy at as
rapid a pace as Tongans can accept. Pro-democracy activists
want major results yesterday. Conservatives want no change.
Frictions led to a devastating riot last November that
shocked everyone. It appears all now agree that major
reforms are inevitable; the remaining questions are pace and
"nut and bolt" details. The TDS will play a role.
Historically its loyalty has been to the King, who is
seemingly now on board to limit his own powers dramatically.
As the democratic evolution unfolds, it will be important for
the U.S. to encourage the TDS to be a force that accepts, and
helps ensure, a securely democratic future for Tonga. End
summary.

Friendly bilateral relations
--------------

2. (U) The U.S. relationship with the Kingdom of Tonga has
been friendly for many years. The current six-month
deployment of 55 TDS troops to Iraq, with plans for a
follow-on deployment, illustrates the close mil/mil ties.
The annual Exercise Tafakula is further proof. Many Tongans
reside in the United States, especially in Utah, California,
and Hawaii. Tonga often votes with the U.S. at the UNGA and
in other international fora. Peace Corps has been active in
Tonga since the 1960s.

A monarchy with British touches
--------------

3. (C) The "friendly islands" of Tonga were not a united
monarchy until the mid-1800s, when King George I accomplished
that feat. Tonga then solidified its political system via
the Constitution of 1875, which made the King head of state
with broad powers over the Parliament that consists of the
King's Cabinet (12-16 people),9 Nobles (elected by the 33
Nobles of the Realm),and 9 People's Representatives (elected
every three years in general elections). The King chooses
the Prime Minister, who, until recently, was almost always a
royal or noble. The political system ensured Parliament
would abide by the King's wishes. Britain took a fatherly
interest in Tongan governance from the mid-1800s until
recently, but Tonga was never formally a colony. The King
has ruled.

Anti-royal, pro-democratic stirrings in the populace
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4. (C) Not surprisingly, some Tongans have chafed at the lack
of genuine democracy. Since the late 1980s, the most
prominent reform advocate has been Akilisi Pohiva, a People's
Rep from the main island, Tongatapu. For many years, his
calls for a more democratic system appeared futile. However,
popular sentiment has been building, in part stimulated by
royal insensitivity. King Tupou IV, who died at age 88 on
September 10, 2006, chose some very odd advisors, including
an American "court jester" who reportedly squandered millions
of dollars of Tonga investments. The late King's children
made sweet-heart deals with government agencies. Now-King
George V, gained the electricity monopoly, which he named
"Shoreline." Princess Pilolevu gained TongaSat, which leases
satellite slots to Chinese entities. The youngest child,
now-Crown Prince Tupouto'a Lavaka'ata, has a lucrative land
lease with the LDS Church. There are many more examples.
The public noticed.


5. (C) A complicating factor was that the now-Crown Prince
became Prime Minister in 2000. His instincts were very
conservative, at a time when the public mood was stirring.
In 2005, the Tonga Government began to implement
civil-service reforms that inexplicably raised the wages for
top-tier public servants before assisting those at the
bottom. Civil servants hit the streets in a strike that
lasted for seven weeks, became very bitter as the PM
stone-walled, and became a rallying point for pro-democracy

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campaigners as well. In the end, Princess Pilolevu
capitulated on behalf of the government when the PM was
abroad. Almost immediately, pro-democracy activists flexed
their muscles with a demonstration that brought thousands to
the streets of the capital. Signs and slogans were
vehemently anti-royal.

Sensing the inevitability of reform; U.S. view
-------------- -

6. (C) As a result, for the first time, all elements in Tonga
began to consider if a more democratic future was inevitable.
The U.S. has encouraged a Tonga-managed transition to a
meaningful Tonga-style democracy at as rapid a pace as
Tongans can accept. In late 2005, Parliament established,
with royal assent, a National Committee for Political Reform,
headed by a royal cousin, Prince Tu'ipelehake. The NCPR held
discussions throughout Tonga and in New Zealand, Australia,
and the U.S. (Tu'ipelehake was killed in a car crash near
San Francisco during the U.S. leg of the trip.) The late
King initiated some reforms. He for the first time chose two
People's Reps (one of them now-PM Fred Sevele) to be members
of Cabinet. Later, on advice of now-King George V, the late
King removed younger son Lavaka'ata as PM and replaced him
with Sevele, the first commoner to be PM since a Brit in the
late 1800s. In September 2006, the NCPR issued a report to
Parliament that recommended dramatic reform: a fully elected
Parliament, with a majority of People's Reps and with
Parliament selecting its Prime Minister. The King presumably
would act on "advice" of Parliament.

Attempt at slowing pace results in riot
--------------

7. (C) Some in Tonga, including PM Sevele, worried
conservative elements would forcibly resist any rapid reforms
that caused power to flow from the King to commoners. Some
presumed the King was egging Sevele on. Sevele proposed an
alternative plan that might leave the King with a delicate
balance of power in Parliament. The Government then slowed
Parliament's deliberative process. Pro-democracy forces were
outraged and began public demonstrations. Last November 16,
pro-Government demonstrators also hit the streets. Some
others with private agendas got involved. A riot erupted
from the anti-Government throng that brought destruction to
many businesses in the central district. Businesses of the
King and PM Sevele were destroyed. Chinese-owned businesses
were also targeted. Eight rioters died in a torched
building. It was a shocking day for normally laid-back
Tonga, and it sobered everyone.

Dealing with crimes; TDS role
--------------

8. (C) Tonga Police were ineffective in responding to the
riot. PM Sevele called on the TDS, with some Australian and
New Zealand assistance, to restore order and begin
interrogating/arresting wrong-doers. Many Tongans blamed
much of the violence on "deportees" from the United States.
Some "deportees" were probably involved, but almost certainly
most of those who committed crimes were home-grown. There
were reports of human-rights violations. Activists claimed
many violations; the TDS claimed very few, and it says all
were investigated and dealt with. PM Sevele was extremely
embittered by the riot, and he blamed the pro-democracy
leaders, his old friends. Those leaders have acknowledged
stirring political pressure for the reform agenda, but they
deny planning or instigating the riot. Criminal cases
against alleged perpetrators, including five People's Reps,
are moving through the courts. A state of emergency that
gives the TDS special law-and-order powers has been renewed
monthly, and probably will stay in place until after the
trials conclude.

Re-starting reform; real progress made
--------------

9. (C) Immediately after the riot, the King gave a
forward-looking speech at the close of Parliament, expressing
sorrow for the devastation but calling for continuation of
inevitable reform. For many months, Sevele was visibly
reluctant to re-start the reform agenda. However, it appears
he came to realize, as others did, that popular resentment
was beginning to stir toward the surface again. Nobody
wanted another riot. In June, Parliament set up a
"tripartite committee" (Cabinet, Nobles, People's Reps) to
attempt to find the future. In a matter of weeks, the group
announced agreement on a proposal for a new Parliament with 9
Nobles, 17 People's Reps, and up to 4 members selected by the
King, a clear People's Rep majority. The Parliament would

SUVA 00000442 003 OF 004


choose the PM from within, and the PM would select the
Cabinet from within. We hear the King is on board with that
plan.

But tough issues remain
--------------

10. (C) Sticking points remain. The Constitution requires an
election every three years. The next one is due in January

2008. People's Reps want to stick to that schedule. Sevele
wants to put off the election to 2011, to let passions calm
and perhaps to gain political and/or economic advantage in
the meantime. Reportedly, People's Reps are now willing to
accept 2009, and Sevele 2010. We hear the King would have
OKed 2008. He wants to move on. The other big issues
remaining are the details of electoral districts and voting
processes. Those details matter to individual politicians as
they calculate their futures. There has been no consensus,
and the tripartite committee has referred unresolved issues
back to Parliament to chew on. Until Parliament votes for a
plan and the King approves, nothing is in final.

Rebuilding is slow, costly, and controversial
--------------

11. (C) The process of rebuilding Nuku'alofa is off to a slow
start. Insurance companies have been reluctant to pay. Some
contracts have "insurrection" or "riot" clauses. Sevele,
himself, reportedly has been under severe financial pressure,
though we hear he may be reaching a settlement on his
insurance shortly. Commercial banks, unwilling to accept
exchange-rate risk, will not bring in sufficient off-shore
capital to finance most reconstruction. Australia and New
Zealand are offering only modest sums to help make loans
concessional. At one point, Sevele asked if the U.S. Army
Corps of Engineers might help rebuild infrastructure, though
he never followed up. Tonga approached the PRC Government
and has received a US$55 million loan. We hear it is tied
aid, and that future exchange-rate revisions could make it
very expensive. The King has taken a personal interest in
rebuilding plans. He is working with Chinese architects on a
vision to tear down the heart of central Nuku'alofa and
replace it with...some suggest the blueprint evokes the
Italian Renaissance or London's Horse Guards Parade, not a
South Pacific theme. Many details remain unresolved,
including how Tonga businesses will be convinced to
participate in the scheme by leasing space.

Economy in trouble
--------------

12. (C) The strike settlement in 2005 raised the salaries of
lower-paid public servants by 60-80% and put government
finances under severe strain. In the best of times, the
Tonga economy is fragile, based on pumpkin exports to Japan,
a smattering of tourists, and large-scale remittances from
Tongans abroad. More Tongans live in Australia, New Zealand,
and the U.S. than live in Tonga, and remittances reportedly
constitute more than half of Tonga's GDP, providing the only
safety net for the poor. The Tonga Government has invoked
creative means, including a 2006 redundancy package that
reduced the civil service by over 20%, to keep fiscally
afloat. Reportedly the IMF is worried that the Chinese loan
for Nuku'alofa reconstruction will be unaffordable; but the
Sevele government, seeing no other obvious means to finance
reconstruction, pushed it through.

The China factor
--------------

13. (C) Chinese relations are worth noting. For many years,
Tonga had extremely close relations with Taiwan. The Crown
Prince (now King George V) was particularly friendly. Then
in 1998, relations suddenly switched to the PRC, most likely
through efforts of Princess Pilolevu and her TongaSat
connections. For several years, Tonga sold "investor"
passports to Chinese citizens. To Tonga's surprise, a number
of the passport holders actually came to Tonga. Then
relatives and friends followed. Before the riot, most small
retail shops in Nuku'alofa had become Chinese owned and
operated. Many Tongans, including other businessmen like
Sevele, resented the Chinese in-flow. Thus, the targeting of
Chinese shops in the riot was not surprising. Many Chinese
fled Tonga immediately afterward, though we hear some are
trickling back. The Chinese Embassy cultivates the Tongan
royal family (the King is rumored to have a $30 million
interest-free loan); other Tongan leaders receive trips; and
there are the usual PRC offers of heavily tied infrastructure
projects. We hear the King has been frustrated at his
Government's inability to untie post-riot reconstruction aid.

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Reconciliation versus riot control
--------------

14. (C) Many nerves in post-riot Tonga remain raw, on all
sides. The King is still seen by many commoners as detached,
effete, profligate, and (perhaps unfairly) undemocratic.
Many pro-democracy activists blame Sevele for the riot and
for slowing change. The King and Sevele are clearly worried
about the public mood. The King reportedly is insisting on
flat roofs in his architectural plans for Nuku'alofa, so
snipers can easily position themselves to shoot future
rioters. The King is seeking donor assistance for a "horse
guards" unit, 200 horses strong, ostensibly for ceremony but
primarily for future crowd control. Reconciliation is
necessary, and some efforts are beginning. Sevele has named
a Utah-Tongan to head the Government's effort, aimed to
culminate this year during the week of November 16.

Internal political-military dynamics
--------------

15. (C) The future of the TDS bears pondering. It has always
been seen as the King's force. Its loyalty has always been
to the Crown. That has worked to the advantage of the U.S.
in the decision-making about Tonga contributing again to PKO
in Iraq. All Tongan leaders understand the usefulness of
Tonga helping us to achieve international peace and
stability, but PM Sevele and Foreign/Defense Minister Tu'a
are doubtful about Iraq. Sevele sees political peril if
there are casualties. Tu'a perhaps figures that other
nations are withdrawing from that cause. In Defense Board
deliberations, the King, assisted by Brigadier General
Uta'atu, trumped, and the deployments are to happen.
However, Sevele and Tu'a have now called for a U.S. "quid pro
quo": find a way to adjudicate visas for Tongan applicants in
Tonga rather than in Suva, or Tonga "will not be disposed" to
assist the U.S. "in the military and other fields."
Washington is working on a response.

Nurturing the appropriate TDS role
--------------

16. (C) The day-to-day role the TDS has taken during the
state of emergency has reportedly raised hackles among some
in the public. BG Uta'atu has plans to dramatically expand
the size and capabilities of his force. From the perspective
of having more Tongan help in international PKO, that idea is
very attractive. However, at times Uta'atu has given the
impression he is getting quite comfortable with his powers
under the state of emergency. He is a friend of Fiji's
Commodore Bainimarama, and he has some sympathy for the Fiji
military's assumption that it has a caretaker role over
politics. As Tonga's transition from monarchy to democracy
moves forward, it will be important for the U.S. to encourage
the TDS, to the extent possible, to be a force that accepts
and helps ensure a democratic future for Tonga.

Themes for discussion
--------------

17. (C) In conversations with the King, PM Sevele (if he is
on island),Foreign/Defense Minister Tu'a, and BG Uta'atu,
the main topic presumably will be the close U.S.-Tonga
military relationship. The politicians understand the
usefulness of Tonga contributing to international PKO -- they
have approved Tonga contributions to RAMSI in the Solomons
and to UNAMI; but there is a need to counter what Sevele and
Tu'a see as the domestic-political down-side of the Iraq
deployment. As opportunities arise in discussions, it will
be useful to reconfirm the USG's support for Tonga's
inevitable transformation to a more democratic future, at as
rapid a pace as Tongans can accept, with the TDS playing a
constructive role in that process. Also, as the TDS expands
in size, it will be in the U.S. interest to have that larger
force deploying abroad to assist in PKO, rather than focusing
internally on domestic politics.
DINGER