FIJI: QARASE RETURNS; BAINIMARAMA SHUNS HIM,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000433

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR PHUM FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI: QARASE RETURNS; BAINIMARAMA SHUNS HIM,
CLARIFIES ELECTION STANCE: NO SDL

REF: A. SUVA 425

B. 06 SUVA 519

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
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1. (C) Deposed Prime Minister Qarase returned to Suva last
Saturday. He announced willingness to assist the interim
government (IG) to bring Fiji back to democracy rapidly.
Interim PM Bainimarama dismissed the thought that Qarase and
his SDL Ministers could play any role, now or after a future
election. (We comment that the military statements add fuel
to skepticism about the IG's "in principle" acceptance of
free and fair elections by March 2009.) In other news, it
appears IG lawyers are adjusting their defense for the coup:
from "doctrine of necessity" to reliance on President
Iloilo's purported "reserve powers." An IG counter-suit
against Qarase raises again a military allegation from last
November that the UK, Australia, and U.S. COMs urged a
mutiny. The six remaining expat Court of Appeal judges have
resigned, complaining about Acting Chief Justice Gates. The
Fiji economy remains depressed, despite suggestions by
Finance Minister Chaudhry that the rebound is beginning.
Chaudhry claims Merrill Lynch (Asia Pacific) is prepared to
float "bilateral loan financing" of up to US$500 million to
the IG. End summary.

Qarase in Suva, offers to help IG with elections
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2. (U) Laisenia Qarase flew back to Suva on Saturday, Sept.
1, after 9-months of exile on his remote home island. In the
end, he arrived via an Air Fiji charter. The Fiji military
(RFMF) let the flight happen. Front-page photos showed
friends and family welcoming Qarase at the airport, and more
supporters greeted him at church and at the family home
during the weekend. Media highlighted the reunion of Qarase
with his grandchildren for Fiji's Fathers Day, Sept. 2. The
SDL party held a welcome-back ceremony for Qarase on Sept. 4.
An SDL spokesman reported a threatening call from the
military beforehand. The military denied it ordered such a
call.


3. (U) Qarase told reporters he hopes to enter into dialogue
with Bainimarama to find ways to help Fiji recover from its
current economic and political woes, in particular to move
rapidly to new elections. Qarase said he would be prepared
to run in such elections, if his SDL party wishes. Qarase
dismissed the military's claim that a "clean up of
corruption" justified last December's coup. Qarase noted
every country faces corruption challenges, and he alleged the
interim government (IG) has corruption problems of its own.

Bainimarama says Qarase not part of Fiji's future
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4. (U) Bainimarama and RFMF spokesman LtCol Tikoitoga both
made clear on Sept. 2 that the "military council" remains
adamant the Qarase crowd must never return to power. The
military aim for Fiji is "a united country, free of divisive
policies." Bainimarama said that "for Fiji to move forward
and stop the coup culture, people like Qarase and his
Ministers should not be part of a democratically elected
government." Bainimarama said "racist policies" of the
Qarase Government increased after the 2006 election and
provoked the coup. "We are fighting against everything he
stands for." Bainimarama said Qarase should stop calling for
an early election which "would not happen until the
military's plans for taking Fiji forward are completed." As
for dialogue, Bainimarama said Qarase didn't want dialogue
with the military during six years as PM, so "Qarase has
nothing to offer the interim regime."

Qarase's driver detained
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5. (U) According to media reports, the military took Qarase's
long-time driver to the barracks for questioning on Monday,
Sept. 3. Associates of Qarase reported the driver was
beaten, but not so severely as to require medical care.
Military spokesman Tikoitoga said the driver is an army
reservist who still is employed by the PM's office. The
spokesman said it is a security risk to have a Qarase
loyalist working in the interim PM's office, so the driver
has been asked to resign.

FHRC's Shameem offers another creative coup defense

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6. (C) Meanwhile, Fiji Human Rights Commission Director
Shaista Shameem, who offered a poorly thought-out defense of
the coup in a report prepared for the UN Human Rights
Commission in late December, has prepared a follow-up
analysis for the UNHRC that proposes the military's removal
of Qarase was not a coup at all and did not violate the PM's
human rights. The new document's version of events ignores
the December history and seems counter to the Fiji
Constitution in arguing that Bainimarama was justifiably
acting on behalf of President Iloilo. We understand several
Fiji lawyers are preparing a rebuttal that FHRC Commissioner
Shamima Ali will provide the UNHRC.

Hong Kong legal advice: a new presidential spin?
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7. (C) On the weekend, we spoke with one of the IG's
attorneys, who referred several times to Hong Kong lawyers
recruited by interim Attorney General Sayed-Khaiyum to build
defenses against lawsuits by Qarase, suspended Chief Justice
Fatiaki, and others. FHRC Director Shameem's new legal
analysis -- away from invoking a "doctrine of necessity" and
to a proposal that President Iloilo, under constitutional
"reserved powers" could order Bainimarama to remove Qarase --
may reflect the Hong Kong advice. The same theme appears in
a new IG counter-suit against Qarase alleging he failed to
keep Iloilo "generally informed" of events as required under
the Constitution.

A reference to Amb-RFMF discussions last November
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8. (C) Interestingly, one allegation in the counter-suit
relates to a meeting the UK, Australia, and U.S. COMs had
with senior RFMF leaders Teleni and Driti last November (Ref
B). After that meeting Driti claimed publicly that the
envoys had urged a mutiny against Bainimarama, who was in New
Zealand at the time. The envoys responded publicly that
their instructions were to make clear how disastrous a coup
would be for Fiji and particularly for the RFMF, and to spell
out the kinds of sanctions that would be invoked. The
counter-suit proposes Qarase failed to inform President
Iloilo that the envoys "encouraged" Teleni "to withdraw his
support for Commodore Bainimarama as head of the RFMF and of
their threat to withdraw financial aid to Fiji should there
be any military intervention into the government." Comment:
The envoys never encouraged Teleni to withdraw his support
for Bainimarama, i.e., to mutiny. They also did not
coordinate the RFMF meeting with Qarase or his office.

Expat Court of Appeal judges resign
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9. (C) Constitutional cases remain slow-moving. Eventually,
though, trial courts will make judgments and appeals will
follow. The Fiji Court of Appeal suffered a blow last week
when the six remaining expatriate judges resigned, citing a
concern that acting Chief Justice Gates has taken
administration of the Court of Appeal out of their hands.
They said Gates did not consult them about a Court of Appeal
sitting last week for which Gates assigned three Suva-based
high-court judges, and Gates did not take up an offer by the
senior Appeal judge to plan a sitting in November. Gates
responded, "The Court of Appeal will continue as it always
has, though individual judges may change." Comment: Rumors
are floating that the IG's intention is to replace Australian
and New Zealand Court of Appeal judges with newcomers from
places like Hong Kong, Singapore, and India.

Economy still down; Chaudhry optimistic, sees US loan
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10. (C) Interim Finance Minister Chaudhry suggested last week
that Fiji's economy is starting to improve, though the GDP
will contract by 3.1% this year. Chaudhry estimated
inflation will drop from 7% to 4% later this year. He
estimates growth of 1.9% for 2008, based largely on a
recovery in the tourism sector. Most everyone else we talk
to is much more pessimistic. Reserve Bank Governor Narube
told us last weekend that economic signs are not good and he
worries about political repercussions. The President of the
Hotel Association estimates tourism revenues are down 40% for
the first six months of 2007, contrary to Bureau of
Statistics data that suggest no significant change from 2006.
The tourism sector does not sense a rebound as yet. The new
owner of the Vatakuola gold mine saw re-opening halted last
week when the Revenue and Customs Authority froze its bank
account over former owners' back-taxes from 1988. Chaudhry

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reported on Sept. 4 that he has received an offer from
Merrill Lynch (Asia Pacific) for "bilateral loan financing"
of up to US$500 million, with details being negotiated.
Comment: One presumes, given the IG's financial situation,
that loan terms would be costly.

Comment
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11. (C) Qarase's return to Suva has ratcheted up political
debate. Bainimarama's suggestion that the Qarase Government
became more racist after the 2006 elections is odd. A number
of Qarase policies before those elections appeared
race-based. After the elections, it seemed Qarase turned a
new leaf in setting up a multi-party cabinet. The next four
months were as non-racist a period as Fiji has seen in recent
years. The RFMF's reiterations that elections can't take
place until Fiji's population is properly educated to be
non-racist, etc., and that the military will not permit the
return of Qarase and his Ministers to governance add to
skepticism about the IG's "in principle" agreement to free
and fair elections by no later than March 2009. The latest
legal theory to defend the coup, as articulated in the IG's
counter-suit against Qarase, would seem to require President
Iloilo to testify in court about Qarase's briefings. That is
difficult to envision. By several recent accounts, Iloilo is
sinking more and more into senility. Even last December, he
was not an independent actor.
DINGER