FIJI UPDATE 8/24/07: NERVOUSNESS IN THE STREETS;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000420

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/23/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ASEC ECON CASC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE 8/24/07: NERVOUSNESS IN THE STREETS;
EU APPROACH TO AID; ELECTION PREPARATIONS; TELECOMMS
OPENING

REF: SUVA 416

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
--------------

1. (C) Contacts are increasingly nervous that ethnic-Fijian
unhappiness with Commodore Bainimarama's interim government
(IG) could erupt. The surface remains calm. Media report a
draft EU decision document re sugar-reform aid would keep
pressure on the IG to hold credible elections by early 2009.
The IG's search for a Supervisor of Elections is now
orienting abroad, including to PNG. Fiji Human Rights
Commission Director Shameem continues to behave oddly. She
has told some journalists she and Bainimarama are driving IG
policy. The IG has chosen an interesting group of chiefs to
propose reforms to the Great Council of Chiefs (GCC).
Another military officer has formally taken a senior civilian
position: PermSec for Justice. The IG appears to be opening
the free-to-air TV and mobile-phone sectors to competition.
End summary.

Stirrings among ethnic-Fijians
--------------

2. (C) A variety of well-connected contacts in Suva are
increasingly nervous about the state of play in the
ethnic-Fijian community. As we have reported, Commodore
Bainimarama's removal of the Qarase Government, just six
months after ethnic-Fijians voted overwhelmingly for that
Government contrary to the vocal recommendation of
Bainimarama, has left large numbers of ethnic-Fijians
disgruntled. The surface has appeared calm, but many have
reported deep unease underneath. A savvy ethnic-Fijian
newspaper editor told us this week that, if an election were
held today or probably within the foreseeable future, 85% or
more of ethnic-Fijians would back Qarase's SDL party.
Another editor said he believes "blood in the streets" is
inevitable unless Bainimarama steps aside, which nobody sees
happening. Some have noticed that an annual Methodist
conference in Suva this week has attracted an unusual
concentration of high chiefs. There are rumors that some
former military officers, who have stayed dormant til now,
are stirring toward action. Comment: It is impossible to
know if an eruption will actually occur. We remain watchful.

EU funding dependent on electoral progress?
--------------

3. (C) Suva media spotted a draft decision document regarding
Fiji on the EU's website. The document, prepared for
consideration at a future meeting of the European Commission,
recommends a careful process of releasing EU sugar-assistance
funding to Fiji over the coming years. The EU has already
agreed to release about US$5 million from a 2006 pre-coup
allocation. The document recommends no additional funding
for 2007, an allocation for 2008 only if there is evidence of
credible and timely preparation for elections, and an
allocation for 2009 if a legitimate government is in place.
If a legitimate government continues thereafter, funding
would continue to flow, totaling up to US$165 million for the
period to 2014. Interim Finance Minister Chaudhry, who had
previously suggested publicly to his cane-grower constituents
that large amounts of EU sugar money were imminent, now has
acknowledged publicly that no EU sugar finding is expected
for 2007, except for the soon-to-be-accessed 2006 funding.
Chaudhry suggested "caveats" in the interim government (IG)
commitments to the EU could allow a delay of elections
without a cut of EU funding. Comment: We are aware from EU
reps here that the intention is to hold back the bulk of
sugar assistance until after the proposed early 2009
elections, keeping the IG's feet to the fire.

Search for Elections Supervisor continues
--------------

4. (C) A second effort by the IG Public Service Commission
(PSC) to recruit a Supervisor of Elections locally has failed
to produce an acceptable candidate, according to interim
Attorney General Sayed-Khaiyum. The IG will now search
abroad. The IG promised the EU to have a Supervisor of
Elections in place by September 2007. Sayed-Khaiyum said the
IG may seek to advertise the job via the EU. Comment: The
failure to produce a name could be an effort to slow the

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election-preparation process, though Sayed-Khaiyum blames the
problem on Australia, New Zealand, and others who have visa
sanctions in place. Some others in the region will seek to
ensure a suitable Supervisor becomes rapidly available. We
understand that PNG PM Somare recommended two PNG citizens to
interim FM Nailatikau. The New Zealanders have heard
positive reports on one of them: former PNG Electoral
Commissioner Henry Veretau.

FHRC's Shameem claims to play a lead role in IG
-------------- --

5. (C) Fiji Human Rights Commission (FHRC) Director Shaista
Shameem has threatened to sue the Fiji Times and Fiji Sun
newspapers over their "harassment" of James Anthony, the
person leading the FHRC's inquiry into media freedom. The
Times responded by editorial on 8/23 proposing that if anyone
should be sued it is Shameem for threatening the free press
that is guaranteed under the Constitution. Comment: We are
told that when Shameem visited the Fiji Post newspaper six
weeks ago she told the editors not to bother observing the
interim Cabinet or the NGO community, since Shameem and
Bainimarama are the ones driving IG policy. The editor of
the Post was startled at the statement, even if it was said
"off the record." As Director of the FHRC and recently named
Ombudsman, Shameem is supposed to be studiously neutral in
her approach, working purely to protect human rights. We are
certain Shameem and Bainimarama consult, but we expect
Shameem was greatly exaggerating her influence over IG policy.

GCC reform committee selected
--------------

6. (C) Fijian Affairs Minister Ganilau has named six high
chiefs to a committee to review the Great Council of Chiefs
(GCC). The leader of the review is Ratu Tu'uakitau (Tuki)
Cokanauto, younger brother of interim Foreign Minister
Nailatikau, whom the GCC declined to endorse as Vice
President in April. Ratu Tuki has been quiet since the coup.
He has an independent streak. Several on the committee
reportedly have relatively solid reputations. One member is
high chief for PM Qarase's home village Mavana. Qarase is a
commoner. Ratu Tuki suggested the mandate for the committee
is to seek ways the GCC can be better organized to do its job
more effectively. Comment: Any formal changes to the Fijian
Affairs Act or the Constitution, the sources of the GCC's
powers, should require action by Parliament, though Ganilau
has suggested he can implement reforms via Presidential
decree.

Military PermSec for Justice
--------------

7. (U) The Public Service Commission, with interim PM
Bainimarama's blessing, has named three more Permanent
Secretaries. Army LtCol. Pio Tikoduadua has become PermSec

SIPDIS
for Justice. He has acted in that role since the coup. He
has a graduate diploma in "Strategy in Defense Studies," but
has no legal training. Savenaca Kaunisela is PermSec for
Provincial Development and Multi-Ethnic Affairs. He is a
30-year civil servant and most recently has run government
operations in Fiji's West. Malakai Tadulala is PermSec for
Agriculture. He is a 28-year civil servant and most recently
has been Deputy Secretary in the interim PM's office.

Opening up Telecomms
--------------

8. (SBU) The interim Minister for Commerce, Taito Waradi, is
taking his telecommunications-reform portfolio seriously. In
a sector that has been mostly government-dominated
monopolies, he has granted licenses in recent weeks to four
firms that want to compete with Fiji TV in the free-to-air
television market. In late July, the IG called for tenders
on licenses to operate mobile phone services, until now an
exclusive franchise of Vodafone. One other company, Pacific
Connex, received a tentative license from the Qarase
Government before the coup but its owner became a target of
post-coup investigations and has not followed through.
Connex this week launched a court case to block the granting
of more licenses. Comment: It seems certain that Fiji's
small market cannot support five TV stations or three
mobile-phone companies. On the other hand, the way to sort
out winners and losers is to let them compete. Waradi may
deserve kudos for attempting just that, though it remains to

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be seen how viably-resourced some of the new licensees are.
The government-affiliated monopolies have long said they will
welcome competition, so long as their investors are
appropriately compensated. It does not appear the IG has
solved that part of the equation yet. Lawsuits may follow.
DINGER