Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07SUVA406
2007-08-12 12:12:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Suva
Cable title:  

KIRIBATI: ELECTIONS COMING, CHINA/TAIWAN

Tags:  PREL PGOV PINR EAIR ECON KR 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO8190
PP RUEHPB
DE RUEHSV #0406/01 2241212
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 121212Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY SUVA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0009
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0288
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1763
RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1335
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 1533
RUEHNZ/AMCONSUL AUCKLAND 0492
RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY 0899
RUEHUB/USINT HAVANA 0010
RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI 0007
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000406 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR EAIR ECON KR
SUBJECT: KIRIBATI: ELECTIONS COMING, CHINA/TAIWAN
IMPLICATIONS; CUBA RELATIONS

REF: A. SUVA 397

B. SUVA 398

C. SUVA 399

D. SUVA 402

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000406

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR EAIR ECON KR
SUBJECT: KIRIBATI: ELECTIONS COMING, CHINA/TAIWAN
IMPLICATIONS; CUBA RELATIONS

REF: A. SUVA 397

B. SUVA 398

C. SUVA 399

D. SUVA 402

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
--------------

1. (C) During a visit by the Ambassador to Kiribati,
President Tong reiterated his strong interest in access to
the Millennium Challenge Account. Tong complimented last
May's Pacific Islands Conference of Leaders (PICL) in
Washington, which gave excellent insights into USG checks and
balances. Kiribati general elections on Aug. 22 will lead to
presidential elections in October. President Tong expects a
victory. The results have geo-strategic implications. If
Tong's opponents win, the PRC could return and re-establish a
satellite-tracking station on Tarawa. Kiribati's trust fund
is doing well. A Cuban embassy and ten MDs are resident on
Tarawa, with more MDs coming. Cuba has provided 20
scholarships to Kiribati medical students. The Kiribati
Government is unhappy with its current air-space control
arrangement with Fiji and plans to raise the subject at an
ICAO meeting later this year. End summary.

PACOM and Ambassador visit Kiribati
--------------

2. (U) The Ambassador's July 20-24 visit to Kiribati
overlapped with a highly successful PACOM humanitarian
assistance mission that saw 28 military personnel, mostly
from the Air Force, spend a week providing medical and
construction assistance, mostly to schools and clinics. The
Ambassador's visit gave opportunity to discuss a range of
issues with Kiribati officials. Topics included
ship-registry concerns (Ref A),Peace Corps (Ref B),
trafficking in persons (Ref C),and the China-Taiwan
competition (Ref D). In a meeting on July 20, President Tong
reiterated Kiribati interest in gaining access to the
Millennium Challenge Account. We explained our understanding
of the state of play. Tong complimented Washington for its
part in organizing the Pacific Islands Conference of Leaders

(PICL) last May. He said it was "very valuable,"
particularly in illustrating the checks and balances between
the executive and legislative branches in the U.S. system.

General elections Aug. 22
--------------

3. (SBU) Kiribati will hold its every-three-year general
elections August 22. In preparation, an elections commission
has recommended expanding Parliament from 40 to 44 elected
seats. Two members (the attorney general and a
representative from Rabi) sit without election. The new
parliamentary total will be 46. Numbers in Parliament have
expanded several times over the years as the Kiribati
population has grown. President Tong, who over the past
three years has built his coalition from a bare majority to a
comfortable margin, expects his group to win Parliament
handily. Tong has contemplated solidifying his coalition by
means of a "Samoa approach": creating so many "assistant
minister" positions that nearly everyone in Parliament can
have a sinecure; however, he worries such manipulation could
allow a President "too much power," not a good thing in a
democracy.

Oct. Presidential election; China/Taiwan implications
-------------- --------------

4. (C) Once the new Parliament sits, it will select up to
four persons from among its members to run for President in a
nation-wide vote that will take place in October. The
Kiribati Constitution permits a President to be reelected
twice. Within the constitutional limits, Parliament has
repeatedly given sitting Presidents opportunities to run
again, and Kiribati voters have repeatedly reelected
incumbent Presidents. Thus, many observers figure Tong will
retain the Presidency, and that has geo-strategic
implications. Per Ref D, Kiribati's loyalty between China
and Taiwan has shifted with past election results. Tong's
recognition of Taiwan in 2004 caused the PRC to depart,
taking away a satellite-tracking station that may have had
the U.S. Kwajalein base in its sights. Tong, the Taiwan
Ambassador to Kiribati, and several observers all predict

SUVA 00000406 002 OF 003


that the China-Taiwan issue will not influence voters, who
think grassroots.

Issues at play: scholarships and overdrafts
--------------

5. (SBU) Two "big" issues that could cut against Tong are
allegations that officials manipulated the national
scholarship program to favor children of the elite and a
recent judicial ruling that the Tong government's use of a
bank "overdraft" facility was against the law. Reportedly
two civil servants lost their jobs in the scholarship
scandal. The Kiribati Court of Appeals was to hear the
overdraft issue in early August, before the election. In the
meantime, the Tong Government stopped using the facility and
went on a PR offensive, explaining that past governments had
also used overdrafts, and the intention was pure. The
Government could have used trust-fund revenues to cover
expenditures, but the trust fund was earning excellent
interest. Tapping the overdraft facility at a lower interest
rate made fiscal sense. Some observers suggest, though, that
the Tong Government had been using the overdraft facility
much more than previous governments.

Trust fund healthy
--------------

6. (SBU) The Kiribati trust fund, established at independence
by Australia, New Zealand, and the UK, and managed
professionally in Australia, is healthy. It currently has
A$680 million in assets, and the Kiribati Government has
never attempted to tap the corpus. That said, the Tong
Government reportedly has used more of the annual
distributions from the trust for current-account expenditures
than past governments, and has injected less back into corpus.

Cuban MDs much appreciated; Embassy in place
--------------

7. (SBU) Within the past year, Cuba opened up an embassy in
Kiribati, headed by a Charge who reports to Manila. That
embassy oversees a Cuban medical-assistance program that
Kiribati officials laud. Ten Cuban MDs are currently in
Kiribati, with more coming. Kiribati insisted that all Cuban
MDs speak English well, and that has been honored. The
initial ten reportedly provided earthquake relief in Pakistan
and tsunami relief in Indonesia prior to arriving in
Kiribati. In addition, Cuba has provided scholarships for
twenty Kiribati students to study medicine in Cuba. The
program includes a year of Spanish and then six to seven
years of medical training. When we asked what caused Cuba to
approach Kiribati, nobody had an explanation, beyond altruism.

Air-space control issues for ICAO
--------------

8. (U) The Kiribati Secretary of Transportation raised his
government's interest in re-ordering regional air-space
control. Currently multiple air-control centers cover
portions of the vast Kiribati EEZ. The Fiji center controls
most air space over the Gilbert Islands group; and the FAA
Oakland center controls most airspace over the Phoenix and
Line Islands groups. Kiribati needs funding sources. It
believes the Fiji center should share revenues, but Fiji
refuses to do so. Reportedly Australia and New Zealand have
said that, if Kiribati can obtain the air-control rights now
in Fiji hands, Australia and New Zealand would be willing to
do the controlling, with the revenues flowing to Kiribati.
Kiribati requests USG support for such a plan at the annual
ICAO meeting later this year.

Comment
--------------

9. (C) We are told that Kiribati parliamentary elections are
nearly always decided on the basis of local issues and family
ties. Thus, it is impossible for an outsider to predict
results. We expect the PRC is attempting to work behind the
scenes to encourage its supporters (now in opposition),and
Taiwan is presumably doing what it can to encourage
Tong-coalition members. The August results will give an idea
of public sentiment. Who the Parliament chooses as the three
or four candidates to run for President will give an
additional view. Then, in October, the public will reveal
all. We were told to expect that Kiribati's delegation to
the Pacific Forum in Tonga in October will be light. Real
movers and shakers will be hard at work back home campaigning.

SUVA 00000406 003 OF 003


DINGER