TENSION IN TONGA; LIGHT IN THE TUNNEL?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 SUVA 000349

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2017
TAGS: PREL MARR PHUM ASEC CVIS PINR TN
SUBJECT: TENSION IN TONGA; LIGHT IN THE TUNNEL?

REF: SUVA 338

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
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1. (C) Tonga may re-energize stalled political-reform
discussions. Parliament has created a tripartite commission
to consider specifics, including parliamentary numbers and
the date for the next election. Reportedly, the King has
agreed to act "only on advice" of an elected government, but
some doubt his sincerity and the devil will be in the
details. A motivation to re-start reform is a perception
that the public mood is again turning ugly, against the King
and Prime Minister Sevele. Nobody wants a repeat of last
November's riot. In the meantime, cases against riot
participants, including prominent People's Representatives,
are moving through the courts. A report by human-rights
activists documenting post-riot abuses by security forces has
gained "no traction" in Tonga or the region. Tonga
Government suppression of media coverage of acrimonious
parliamentary debate has angered many. The King's plans for
reconstructing downtown Nuku'alofa using a Chinese loan
include crowd-control themes. The loan is controversial,
with charges of favoritism, worries about details, and fears
of exchange-rate risk. Reportedly the King has recalled his
ambassador to China. Foreign Minister Tu'a complained
bitterly that tiny Tonga is going beyond the call of duty to
support the U.S. in Iraq, yet the U.S. super power isn't able
to provide visa services in Tonga. End summary.

A tripartite commission for political reform
--------------

2. (C) During a July 3-8 visit to Tonga that included a ship
visit by the USS John Paul Jones with a July 4 reception on
board, the Ambassador met with a wide variety of Tongans
about political and economic developments. Tonga politics
may be reaching a decision point on reform. Parliament
agreed on the evening of July 2 to set up a nine-person
tripartite committee (3 Cabinet, 3 Nobles, and 3 People's
Representatives) to discuss compromises. Parliament then
recessed until August 6. By July 6, all three groups had
named their teams. Cabinet selected the Deputy Prime
Minister, the Attorney General, and the Minister for Youth.
People's Reps selected Akilisi Pohiva, Clive Edwards, and
Uliti Uata. We have not yet seen the Nobles' names. The
tripartite committee was to hold its first meeting July 9 and
is to report back ASAP, ideally by Parliament's August 6
re-opening.

Pondering parliamentary numbers
--------------

3. (C) The Commonwealth's special emissary to Tonga, New
Zealander Sir Douglas Graham, was in Nuku'alofa last week,
floating a possible compromise regarding parliamentary
numbers and election dates. Per reftel, Tonga's National
Committee on Political Reform proposed last year a revised,
all-elected parliament of 17 People's Reps and 9 Nobles. PM
Sevele counter-proposed 14 People's Reps, 9 Nobles, and 4 or
5 selections by the King. People's Reps then proposed 21
People's Reps and 9 Nobles. Reportedly Sevele's office
recently offered a new proposal in writing to People's Reps:
18 People's Reps, 9 Nobles, and 4 King appointees. Graham
told us he has suggested the numbers be: 17 or 18 People's
Reps, 9 Nobles, and 3 King's appointees. He sees a few
expert appointees (AG? Finance?) as useful in a Westminster
system. He reportedly received encouraging vibrations from
all sides. Graham has urged appointment of a "facilitator"
for tripartite discussion and indicated he would be willing
to play the role.

Considering election timing
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4. (C) On the issue of election timing, the Constitution
mandates that an election take place every three years (by
early 2008). PM Sevele has urged a delay, given trauma from
last November's riot and the need to negotiate constitutional
amendments with new parliamentary numbers. Sevele has
mentioned 2010 or 2011. Some People's Reps, particularly
Clive Edwards, have insisted to this point that the election
take place on time. Edwards notes that amending the Tonga
Constitution can be done rapidly. All that is required is
unanimous agreement by the Cabinet and Privy Council (the
Privy Council consists of the Cabinet plus the King) and then

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a majority vote in Parliament. Thus, given current Tonga
realities, if the King is on aboard amendments are easy.
Graham told us his instinct is the election should be put off
a year or two, to permit careful preparation of
constitutional amendments and to create separation from the
riot atmosphere. (Note: any postponement of the election
will require a constitutional amendment.)

Looming above: the powers of the King
--------------

5. (C) Of course the big issue, more than mere numbers, will
be the powers of the King. We heard repeatedly that, even
before the riot, the King had informed the Privy Council that
he is prepared to act entirely "on advice" of an elected
government. He reportedly is willing to put that commitment
in writing, though he opposes a formal constitutional
amendment. Attorney General Taumoepeau told us she has
drafted such a "convention" that awaits approval. Details of
such a commitment would be important: is it clear the
all-elected parliament would select the PM via democratic
means? Would the King really forego all independent power?
We heard skepticism from several interlocutors who are
convinced "the King is instinctively an autocrat." He would
expect to find ways to maintain prerogatives. Noble
Filakepa, Lord Chamberlain and close to the King, told us
that, for any agreement about powers, it will be essential to
include the King's brother Crown Prince Tupoutoa Lavaka in
the discussion. When Lavaka was PM he clearly had no
interest in spurring democratic reform. Filakepa said, "The
King's health is not good at all." He suffers from diabetes
and heart ailments.

Tripartite posturing and politicking
--------------

6. (C) We spoke with all three People's Rep members of the
tripartite committee and with two of the three Cabinet
representatives. All expressed strong interest in moving
beyond the post-riot stalemate. The People's Reps expressed
skepticism about the King's willingness to abide by an "on
advice" formula; but they expect reform to build eventually
unstoppable momentum, so they are willing to seek
compromises. On numbers, Edwards intends to press initially
for the People's Reps 21-9 formula (that PM Sevele accepted
under duress during the riot),hoping to parlay any retreat
from that into a guarantee of 2008 elections under revised
numbers. Pohiva and Uata seemed relatively comfortable with
something like the Graham compromise, so long as an election
would not be unduly delayed. Both said they would initially
be in listening mode. Several Cabinet members we spoke with,
including Foreign Minister Tu'a who previously had advocated
a "go slow" approach, noted the urgency of moving forward on
reform ASAP. They appeared ready to find a compromise, and
AG Taumoepeau noted a real need to "air issues" collegially.
Sevele, not on the committee, was rather grouchy about the
potential for a quick solution, though he accepts the need
for discussion.

Public mood turning against Government again
--------------

7. (C) A likely explanation for sudden Cabinet interest in
"moving forward" is a sense that the public mood is
increasingly unstable. Several savvy sources, not just
People's Reps, told us that public shock from the riot, which
initially reduced popularity for the People's Reps who
allegedly orchestrated the tragedy, has worn off. People are
becoming increasingly frustrated by PM Sevele and the King,
who are seen as advocating policies for their personal
benefit. A large China loan (see below) is seen as
illustrative. Also, the continuing state of emergency chafes
on many and creates resentment against security forces.
Tonga's economic woes are hitting businesses and the poor
very hard. Sevele's efforts to stifle media reporting,
including of parliamentary debate, are irritating. And
Sevele is seen as attempting to "control everything"
utilizing outside consultants, showing a lack of trust in the
public service. Several interlocutors suggested Sevele, who
is still attempting to cope with large personal losses from
the riot, is under great pressure from all sides. Reportedly
his health has suffered; asthma attacks are more frequent.
Edwards has heard threats that, absent obvious reform, Sevele
and/or the King "will be shot" within 6 months. Edwards said
he is discouraging such talk, since assassinations "would set
back political reform for 20 years."


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Moving ahead on post-riot trials
--------------

8. (C) People's Reps have another motive to be flexible.
Five, including all three on the tripartite committee, are
under indictment on sedition charges related to the riot.
Their next court appearance is July 18, when trial dates are
to be set. They are nervous, though they profess innocence.
They may figure efforts to contribute constructively to a
political compromise would factor into more lenient sentences
if they are found guilty. (Note. Four of the five are now
likely to opt for jury trials, believing the public mood has
shifted sufficiently to make their basic instinct to "trust
the people" a good bet. Uata expressed confidence that 80%
or more of the people are currently supporting the People's
Rep reform efforts, including in outer islands. Edwards, who
made many enemies while serving as Minister of Police in the
past, will rely on trial by judge.)


9. (C) The AG said the initial arrests of over 1000 people on
riot offenses has been cut. Some had charges dismissed.
Some, especially juveniles, have been diverted to informal
punishments. The total number of cases now is around 300, a
manageable number. Chief Justice Ford similarly said the
justice system, which has a new Aussie judge and plans for
one more expat, is in the best shape in recent years to
handle its workload. The AG sees only 20-25 cases, including
the People's Rep sedition trials, as big ones. The AG said
there is "solid evidence" that People's Reps helped plan the
riot, "though maybe they intended a smaller version." She
said "business troublemakers" were also involved.

No traction for post-riot human rights complaints
-------------- --------------

10. (C) As reported previously, human rights activists in
Tonga have complained that security forces engaged in abuses
of those arrested after the riot. While activists disavowed
an initial report of such abuses, they later issued a revised
version that alleged widespread problems. The organizer of
the report, Betty Blake, told us police and military
officials were given opportunity to comment during
preparation of the report but declined to assist. We were
told PM Sevele dismissed the report publicly and praised
security-services' restraint. Diplomats in Nuku'alofa said
the report received "no traction" in Tonga or in the region.

Stifling media coverage of parliament
--------------

11. (C) The issue of media freedom, on the other hand, has
been receiving considerable attention. During the most
recent session of Parliament, People's Reps engaged in
bitter, personal attacks on PM Sevele and the King,
especially during debate on the China loan, which many expect
will benefit the PM's and King's business interests. The
parliamentary debate was being covered on Radio Tonga, and a
Tonga Broadcasting Company (TBC) commentator was delivering
frequent summaries on TV news programs. The PM's office
complained to TBC, which then shut down reporting from
Parliament. The result has been very limited news. Even the
"tripartite commission" decision had received no public
dissemination by the weekend. People's Reps, who want
coverage of their attacks on Sevele, are upset.

Reconstruction plans with a crowd-control twist
-------------- --

12. (C) Memories of the November riot and concern about the
future public mood are coloring plans for reconstruction of
the Nuku'alofa central business district. The King has been
working closely with Chinese architects on blueprints which
include three-story, flat-roofed buildings extending three
blocks along the main street. Reportedly, the flat roofs are
intended to facilitate security-force sniper fire if a future
riot occurs. The King has also instructed the Tonga Defense
Service (TDS) to make plans for a horse-cavalry unit. The
obvious aim, beyond the King's love of British-style
ceremony, is crowd-control in future emergencies. Foreign
Minister (acting Defense Minister) Tu'a and TDS Commander
Uta'atu admitted as much. Tu'a has been assigned
responsibility to oversee implementation of the Chinese
construction project. He said the intention is for TDS
manpower to be heavily involved.

Issues with the China loan
--------------

13. (C) Finance Minister 'Utoikamanu told us the Chinese loan

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totaling some US$ 55 million is all tied aid. The China
Civil Engineering Construction Company (CCECC) will be prime
contractor. Tonga hopes CCECC will subcontract elements to
Tonga firms, but project design and much of the construction
will be Chinese. Tonga businesses will be offered space,
with mortgages back to the Tonga Government. Issues are
already arising. Those who currently possess the land within
the reconstruction zone want a say in what is designed and
built. Some don't want three stories. Reportedly only
businesses that are "debt free" will be eligible to
participate, but many are already burdened by past loans.
Some businesses that relocated temporarily from the city
center see no reason to return to a high-rent district. A
potentially huge issue is foreign-exchange risk.
'Utoikamanu, briefed by the IMF, flagged the danger to
Cabinet; but "they weren't interested in hearing it." Sevele
and others who desperately need reconstruction money just
wanted to plunge ahead.

Recalling the Ambassador to China
--------------

14. (C) PM Sevele expressed disappointment to us that China
had not been as flexible in loan terms as Tonga wanted.
Nonetheless, the PM forced approval of the loan through
Parliament, after weathering the People's Reps' personal
attacks. Another possible indicator of problems with the
Chinese: the Lord Chamberlain told us Tonga's Ambassador to
China has been unexpectedly recalled, even though most people
perceived she had been doing a fine job. Reportedly the King
was in "a foul mood" all week. Our request for a meeting was
not answered.

Conflicting interests in Shoreline
--------------

15. (C) Among the charges which People's Reps raised in
Parliament was that part of the China loan would be used in
the Government's buy-back of the King's Shoreline company,
Tonga's electric utility. The King took over Shoreline in a
sweetheart deal several years ago when he was out of
government. On ascending the throne he immediately announced
he would sell off all business assets. The early hope had
been a potential New Zealand arms-length buyer, but the riot
ended that interest. Now the Sevele Government has agreed to
the buy-back. Finance Minister 'Utoikamanu insisted on an
independent evaluation of the utility's net value by Deloitte
Touche of NZ, since the King as seller and buyer would have
an "inherent conflict of interest." 'Utoikamanu couldn't say
where Finance would find the money for the eventual payout to
the King.

Ministerial anger: visas versus Iraq
--------------

16. (C) At a dinner hosted by Foreign/Defense Minister Tu'a,
conversation was generally cordial. However, twice "visas"
came up, and Tu'a lit off. He noted the long-term, close
bilateral relationship and Tonga's willingness to assist the
United States interests in global security, including by
volunteering for new TDS deployments to the Coalition of the
Willing in Iraq. Yet, he fumed, the United States forces
Tonga citizens to travel all the way to Suva to apply for
visas. Either a U.S. embassy/consulate should open in
Nuku'alofa, or arrangements should be made for Embassy Suva
consular officers to adjudicate visa cases in Tonga. We
attempted to explain, as we have many times before, the
complications of post-9/11 visa processing and the pilot
projects CA is running to see if portable fingerprinting is
feasible. But Tu'a was having none of it. (Note/comment: We
have had several similar conversations with Sevele. Tonga's
PKO efforts certainly deserve our respect. If a suitably
portable system can be approved, Embassy Suva stands ready to
utilize it for Tonga visa processing, presuming we will have,
or can add, any necessary resources to cope with an expected
increase in visa applications.)

Comment
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17. (C) The tripartite commission will only succeed if all
elements are ready to discuss and compromise. Until
recently, that had not appeared to be the case, and we are
still not overconfident about PM Sevele's attitude. However,
many others in Tonga are clearly anxious to make political
progress. The questions of just what the King means by
"acting on advice," and what his brother the Crown Prince
would mean by it, are crucial. The plans for "flat roofs"

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and "horse cavalry" make one pause. China's big loan is
Tonga's only offer of the kind of capital needed to get major
reconstruction under way. Thus it is welcome. But China
takes a risk. Many Tongans are already prejudiced against
Chinese. The controversial building plans and the swarms of
Chinese workers to be involved will likely fuel still more
racial resentment. PM Sevele's squelching of the media is
troubling. People's Rep Uata has urged the U.S. and others
to issue condemnatory public statements. We noted that the
U.S. Human Rights Report on Tonga already makes clear our
concern about intimidation of the media, and our strong
support for media freedom.
DINGER