TONGA POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY, RECONSTRUCTION DELAYS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000338

SIPDIS

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2027
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TN
SUBJECT: TONGA POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY, RECONSTRUCTION DELAYS
CONTINUE

REF: SUVA 224 (AND PREVIOUS)

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Reasons: Sec. 1.4 (b) and (d)

Summary
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1. (C) As Tonga's Parliament was adjourning its session just
after last November's tragic riot in Nuku'alofa, new King
George V tasked government and pro-democracy critics to
conclude the national debate on democratic reforms for
Tonga's monarchy and provide a solution for the next session
of Parliament to consider in June. However, Prime Minister
Seveli has insisted that pro-democracy leaders accused of
riot offenses first face justice. Multiple court cases are
under way, including for five People's Representatives
arraigned on sedition charges. Reportedly, reform discussion
in Parliament may resume in early July, once the new budget
is wrapped up. Both sides claim readiness to consider a
degree of compromise. Elections are due in early 2008. but
PM Sevele has expressed skepticism that post-riot Tonga will
be ready. Some pro-democracy activists continue to call for
structural reforms in time for next year's elections; others
seem ready to delay elections if meaningful reform really is
in the offing. A memorandum of understanding with China to
help rebuild Nuku'alofa could re-ignite debate about the
King's business interests. It appears the aid will be "in
kind," which would further complicate efforts by businesses
to rebuild. End summary.

Government's Mantra: Yes to Reconciliation, but Justice First
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2. (C) Overall, some 1,200 riot suspects were arrested, and
five pro-democracy "People's Representative" parliamentarians
have been charged with sedition for their alleged roles in
the public demonstrations that disintegrated into the
November 16 riot and arson. Of those arrested, fewer than
900 have been charged and only about 500 will face trial, the
great majority for theft and similar charges to be heard in
the lower magistrates courts. Contacts have told us that
thus far fewer than 30 people have been remanded to the
Supreme Court, which is hearing all cases involving serious
offenses.


3. (C) The five parliamentarians appeared before a
preliminary hearing in May; they will be tried before Tonga's
Supreme Court on dates to be set July 18. At the conclusion
of the May hearings, the five defendants told the court they
wished to be tried by judge and not jury. However, one
defendant, Akilisi Pohiva, told us he now intends to request
a jury. A long-time pro-democracy leader and one of the
chief figures at the November demonstrations, Pohiva feels a
jury drawn from "the people" will acquit him. According to
an Australian diplomat in Tonga, the Australian seconded to
assist Tonga's Chief Justice in the trials will be highly
demanding of the government prosecutors' cases. The diplomat
does not expect the evidence against the five
parliamentarians to be sufficient to lead to convictions.


4. (C) Pohiva, who has moderated his rabble-rousing tone
since the riot, told us blame for the failure of government
and the people's opposition to start talking again lies at
the feet of PM Fred Seveli. Pohiva said the PM's personal
losses in the November 16 events -- his family supermarket,
the country's largest, was looted and burned -- have clouded
his judgment. Several embassy contacts have observed that
the PM is a changed man, embittered and unable to see beyond
an oft-stated insistence that those he sees as responsible
for the riot must first admit their errors and seek
forgiveness from the people before the two sides can
reconcile.

Seven Months On: Signs of a Thaw...or Not
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5. (C) Still, seven months after the riot and fires that
wasted much of the capital's business district, Tonga might
be about to restart the political dialogue cut short on
November 16. According to Pohiva, Deputy Prime Minister
Tangi told Parliament in June that once debate concludes on
the government's budget estimates for the fiscal year
beginning July 1, debate on the future of political reform
could begin. Some remain doubtful. Pro-democracy people's
representative Clive Edwards told us that government may
instead redirect debate to a memorandum of understanding just
concluded with China on the rebuilding of Nuku'alofa.

SUVA 00000338 002 OF 003


According to Edwards, government plans to push through the
MOU, call a break until August, re-open parliament for just
three weeks and then close it until after
constitutionally-mandated elections in early 2008 (see para
7).


6. (C) Advisor to the Prime Minister, Lopeti Senetuli, told
us he was not aware when government plans to begin debating
reforms again. He said that, when debate does begin,
government will seek to channel review of competing proposals
into a nine-member, tripartite committee, with members drawn
equally from the Cabinet, the nobles, and the People
Representatives. That concept was rejected by some
pro-democracy advocates on the eve of the riot as a diversion
from what they saw as Parliament's obligation to act on
proposals presented last September by the National Committee
on Political Reform. Senetuli believes Parliament as a
"committee of the whole" would never reach consensus, but the
small committee could. Democracy advocates have complained
that the tripartite committee would be dominated by nobles
and cabinet; but Senetuli says outcomes would be based on
consensus, so relative strengths within the committee are
moot. Not totally convinced, Pohiva does now appear ready at
least to consider the tripartite committee as a means to get
talks going again.

Numbers and Timing: Room for Compromise?
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7. (C) PM Sevele has said publicly, and reaffirmed to us
privately in April (reftel) that he does not think Tonga can
be sufficiently recovered from the November 2006 riot to hold
elections in early 2008. In April, Sevele suggested 2010 or

2011. However, Senetuli told us government now prefers to
hold the elections on schedule, but without reform, basing it
on the existing division of seats: 9 people's reps and 9
nobles. (Another 12-16 MPs currently are non-elected members
of the Cabinet, appointed by the King.) The Tuipelehake
Committee proposed an all-elected parliament of 26, raising
the people's share to 17 and leaving the nobles at nine.
Sevele then tossed in a spanner, suggesting 14 people's reps
and 9 nobles, with an additional "four or five" to be
nominated by the King (thus potentially maintaining royal
control). With that, the pro-democracy camp offered a 21
people's rep, 9 nobles split.


8. (C) People's rep Clive Edwards said the pro-democracy camp
is prepared to compromise on its call for 21-9, though a lot
would depend on government's willingness to make a deal now,
in time for the 2008 elections. "2009 (or later)," he said,
"is a bit remote." Pohiva said that the People's Committee
for Political Reform, made up of pro-democracy activists,
wants reforms in place in time for a 2008 election, but he
himself is prepared to accept elections in 2009 if government
will compromise on the numbers. He speculated that committee
members might be willing to accept a 17-9-2 variation, with
the people electing 17, the nobles 9 and the king appointing

2. Other political activists we spoke to were mainly focused
on the need to keep the political-reform process moving,
based perhaps on steps in which the two sides accept interim
arrangements along with an schedule that would keep the next
election from slipping off into 2011 or beyond.

The China Syndrome
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9. (C) Looming over the Tonga political scene is the
government's recently struck MOU with China for 118 million
pa'anga (US$ 55 million),announced as assistance for the
reconstruction of Nuku'alofa. The pro-democracy camp is
suspicious that government will use some of the Chinese aid
to buy out the King's interest in the national electricity
utility. However, government, which clearly was seeking to
convince China to provide some of the assistance as un-tied
financing, now insists that China is not providing any cash
at all. Senetuli said the entire package is tied to Tonga's
reconstruction plans, and much of the total will be in kind,
in the form of materials and actual construction.

The Rebuild: Waiting on Insurers and the Courts
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10. (C) The rebuilding of Nuku'alofa has not yet begun in
earnest, in good part because most major business owners have
not received insurance payouts. According to business and
legal figures, several large insurers are awaiting the
outcome of the sedition trials against the People's

SUVA 00000338 003 OF 003


Representatives. If the five are convicted, insurers will
claim the riot was an insurrection and invoke an escape
clause. Some business people complain that government
intends onerous standards on those planning to rebuild.
Reportedly when government attempted to demand that all new
buildings be at least three stories tall, owners roundly
rejected the concept. Ambitious plans to re-wire and
re-plumb the entire central business district and to widen
streets are also receiving little enthusiasm from business
people. Many business owners face a crunch: having to
finance rebuilding when original construction loans remain on
the books. A number are setting up shop outside the center
where costs are lower and land-tenure issues area less
convoluted.

Comment
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11. (C) As noted previously, all in Tonga now appear to be on
record in support of "reform." Less clear are judgments
about pace and degree. Politicians will need to chart a
delicate course as they debate a new parliamentary structure
and decide on an election schedule. At the same time,
Tonga's economy desperately needs rebuilding. Some predicted
China aid would be the saving grace, and surely that will
help resurrect public infrastructure. However, private
businesses need financing, and it is not at all clear who
will provide the funds if insurance proceeds remain scant.
DINGER